ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Sabanic]

slight west bend in this package as depicted by some of the models......might be a trend we shall see...

Yup startin to look like we here may get to relax a bit more. Definitely a west trend by all models. I can handle that for sure.

[tolakram]

http://markalot.org/gearth.html

So why are the winds in Kingston still out of the east while the pressure has been rising?

[Sanibel]

Just a point:

When Gus weakened over Haiti 95L finally developed. When Hanna was blown-off by shear this afternoon Gus did an excellent rebound and structural improvement. Tonight Gus is hung up on Jamaica and weak. Hanna is flaring deep IR.

[ROCK]

It seems the NHC is going with the idea too--slowing down the storm significantly and turning it westbound at the end. Very concerning to say the least.

yep 18Z GFS saw this today after Gus made landfall..NOGAPS is surely seeing it (to the extreme), UKMET is sniffing it, GFDL hasnt moved in months.. ....I wondering what the 0z GFS is going to do.....

[pablolopez26]

My cone of discertainty ranges from Corpus all the way to New Orleans as of right now. Anybody along these areas should be vigilant of Gustavs progress.

[tolakram]

I think it's possible the center of Gustav is south of Kingston rather than southwest. It's very possible the Kingston wind gauge is unreliable though.

[mvtrucking]

This track has been on La for days, we have seen it move east then west, but has been pretty much in the same area. Will probably trend back east tomorrow? Just a guess.

[Stormcenter]

This track has been on La for days, we have seen it move east then west, but has been pretty much in the same area. Will probably trend back east tomorrow? Just a guess.

TX/LA border landfall?

[6SpeedTA95]

This track has been on La for days, we have seen it move east then west, but has been pretty much in the same area. Will probably trend back east tomorrow? Just a guess.

TX/LA border landfall?

ohhh man I hope not...It either needs to go wayyyy west (corpus) or further south or it needs to go Florida...

[Sabanic]

This track has been on La for days, we have seen it move east then west, but has been pretty much in the same area. Will probably trend back east tomorrow? Just a guess.

TX/LA border landfall?

Or Texas alone?? Models sure are headed that way for now. At least the NHC is.

[Weatherfreak000]

Just remember guys that bend at the end of the forecast is +FIVE DAYS OUT.


Wouldn't wanna see anyone getting CARRIED AWAY with the assumptions...last GFS, GFDL and EURO show the system doing the opposite of what you see now. Not to mention our Pro Met Derek's lastest forecast doesn't agree.

[cheezyWXguy]

This track has been on La for days, we have seen it move east then west, but has been pretty much in the same area. Will probably trend back east tomorrow? Just a guess.

TX/LA border landfall?

Or Texas alone?? Models sure are headed that way for now. At least the NHC is.

Yes I am beginning to worry about an upper TX coast landfall now. Note on the new track the bend west. If this goes only a little slower than forecast, it could mean a landfall significantly further west than currently projected.

[pablolopez26]

...this goes only a little slower than forecast, it could mean a landfall significantly further west than currently projected.

I agree 100%.

Any slow down on Gustavs part could mean significant changes to the track.

But i do agree that the models have been swinging east and west thoughout the day today.

Just focus on the cone is what i say.

[6SpeedTA95]

...this goes only a little slower than forecast, it could mean a landfall significantly further west than currently projected.

I agree 100%.

Any slow down on Gustavs part could mean significant changes to the track.

But i do agree that the models have been swinging east and west thoughout the day today.

Just focus on the cone is what i say.

And yesterday, and the day before, I've been downloading model pages every so often and saving them to see how much they change, they're basically dancing east west a couple hundred miles each model run with landfall somewhere between TX/LA and Pensacola...although the latest runs could shift that a bit further west.

[O Town]

[pablolopez26]

Yeah, i dont think we wont know anything for certain (model wise)until Sunday. Dependant upon how fast Gustav moves west.

[CajunMama]

Why am i finding so many posts in here repititous and chatty? If you want to discuss & chat, visit the chatroom. People are going to be getting suspensions soon and they're not going to like it. We've been deleting so many threads in here that DON'T BELONG IN HERE. Is it that hard to stay on the subject? If someone just posted what you wanted to say, does it really need repeated? Think before you post.

Suggested reading:
REMEMBER!! This is a forum, NOT a chat room!! Must Read!

[Brent]

HOWEVER...IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED AND GUSTAV BECAME A CATEGORY 4 OR 5
HURRICANE BY 72 HR.

[Stormcenter]

Just remember guys that bend at the end of the forecast is +FIVE DAYS OUT.


Wouldn't wanna see anyone getting CARRIED AWAY with the assumptions...last GFS, GFDL and EURO show the system doing the opposite of what you see now. Not to mention our Pro Met Derek's lastest forecast doesn't agree.

No offense to anyone but I'm sticking with the NHC's tracks. They've been in the business a long long time.

[Just Joshing You]

NOT MY FORECAST, FROM NHC!

THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 99
KT...THE LGEM MODEL 94 KT...THE GFDL 111 KT...AND THE HWRF 137 KT.
THE LATTER IS DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFDL. HOWEVER...IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED AND GUSTAV BECAME A CATEGORY 4 OR 5
HURRICANE BY 72 HR.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0301.shtml