ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tgenius]

GCANE you still feel like there is a setup for that wsw motion or has environment changed enough to not warrant it anymore?

[Kat5]

CMISS map is still showing the weakness slowly and surely transitioning as Dorian continues it’s expected slowed westward movement. Nothing really off per the forecast, in my opinion. Stay safe folks!

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.GIF

Dorian has not slowed down as out yet, not sure what you are looking at...

More of NHC wording regarding its anticipated slowdown.

[KWT]

Jim Edds is in one precarious position:
https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/1168109910342668290

https://i.imgur.com/oZ9YExq.jpg

My word that is a real dodgy position, they are going to get the western eyewall and if it stalls, may get a lengthy spell in the Eastern eyewall as well...

[BLUEBIRDFLA]

I am just wondering why absolutely no evacuations have been ordered yet for Palm Beach county, including the coast??

[KWT]

CMISS map is still showing the weakness slowly and surely transitioning as Dorian continues it’s expected slowed westward movement. Nothing really off per the forecast, in my opinion. Stay safe folks!

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.GIF

Only thing to watch is the models tend to underdog ridging, indeed a met tweeted that the globals have underdone the ridging a little based on the data from recon.

Would only take a sleep GHT underestimation to get Dorian far enough west to bring the hurricane force winds ashore.

Dorian has not slowed down as out yet, not sure what you are looking at...

More of NHC wording regarding its anticipated slowdown.

[Bocadude85]

I am just wondering why absolutely no evacuations have been ordered yet for Palm Beach county, including the coast??

Not really much of a surge threat in Palm Beach County at the moment....Maybe 1-2 feet.

[jlauderdal]

I am just wondering why absolutely no evacuations have been ordered yet for Palm Beach county, including the coast??

its a tropical storm warning, if it was a hurricane watch or warning they might do it, they have criteria, see what 11 am brings, models are trending west..some of us have been saying it for days, ridges tend to be underdone in the modeling and that seems to be the case now..if i was in west palm beach i would be boarding up

[wxman57]

Dorian is gradually slowing down. 7.25 kts the past 4 hrs, 8.55 kts the previous 4 hrs. Still nothing to indicate any impact to Florida by the core. NC may be brushed by hurricane force winds, at least in gusts.

[northjaxpro]

CMISS map is still showing the weakness slowly and surely transitioning as Dorian continues it’s expected slowed westward movement. Nothing really off per the forecast, in my opinion. Stay safe folks!

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.GIF

Oh yeah. The weakness is definitely there as evidenced on the map analysis for this morning. It is just a natter of timing. How quickly will the ridge get erioded by the shortwave, or will the ridge hold strong enough to push Dotian right to thr coast or even landfall.

Dorian will get close enough fo give very damaging effects and ompacts I am afraid along the Florida East Coast, even wiyhout a firect landfall.

One thing for sure regarding it’s predicted trajectory, it’s not a Matthew scenario. As I can recall, it was a decaying western Atlantic ridge vs a longwave. That’s not happening here, a western motion is more probable as the models have had noticeable issues of handling eroding ridges this season.

That's correct. Matthew also wss a bit farther offshore ,wekl in terns of its approach yo the Florida East Coast, about 50-70 mikes offshore Florida East Coast at that time in 2016

This ridge with Dorian looks stronger indeed., thus pushng Dorian much.more closer to the Florida East Coast unfortunately.

[GCANE]

GCANE you still feel like there is a setup for that wsw motion or has environment changed enough to not warrant it anymore?

Looks like that UL Ridge to its NW is pushing down on it more.
CIMSS steering also seems to think so.

[ocala]

Eye clearly showing up on Miami extended radar.
https://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.ph ... Z&loop=yes

[ObsessedMiami]

Not an expert at all and just have anecdotal memories to go on, but I have a hard time believing a strong Cat4/Cat5 can just turn on a dime like some of these models are showing. The only time I can remember some hard 90 degree turns is when a front approached from the west.
Turning so abruptly due a weakness in the ridge? Color me personally skeptical.

[northjaxpro]

Not an expert at all and just have anecdotal memories to go on, but I have a hard time believing a strong Cat4/Cat5 can just turn on a dime like some of these models are showing. The only time I can remember some hard 90 degree turns is when a front approached from the west.
Turning so abruptly due a weakness in the ridge? Color me personally skeptical.

100% agree with you. The turn will be very gradual when it finally.does occur. In a couple of days.

[BLUEBIRDFLA]

I am just wondering why absolutely no evacuations have been ordered yet for Palm Beach county, including the coast??

its a tropical storm warning, if it was a hurricane watch or warning they might do it, they have criteria, see what 11 am brings, models are trending west..some of us have been saying it for days, ridges tend to be underdone in the modeling and that seems to be the case now..if i was in west palm beach i would be boarding up

Yes I know it’s a Tropical storm warning right now. I guess it’s just too close for comfort here in Delray Beach. Been tracking and fascinated by hurricanes for years ( I’m no youngster, long time lurker here), but this one is a little to close for comfort.
Thank you for your response.

[GCANE]

Some eyewall lightning and then the eye got circular.
No way this is not a Cat 5.

[abajan]

Just checked 250mb winds.
ULL just broke down.
Ridge to the north is really pushing down on Dorian now.
Anti-cyclone looks stronger.
Stay tuned.

Just as I suspected, the ridge north of Dorian is stronger than initially thought. 850 mb steering analysis last night showed that the ridge axis extended west all the way into the North Centra GOM. This explained the ULL west of Dorian contunued west .motion. The ULL was forecasted to droo south.over Cuba 36 hours ago. That is telling to me tight there about the strength of the ridge north of Dorian.

Can anybody explain in simple terms what this could mean for Dorian's future?

It means Dorian could well still slam into Florida. And TV mets have not been stressing this nearly enough IMHO.

[wx98]

Here we go. Let’s see if the pressure has dropped to sub 930

[Bunkertor]

Some eyewall lightning and then the eye got circular.
No way this is not a Cat 5.

Agree

[hurricaneCW]

Based on its current trajectory the center will roll right over or just to the north of Freeport as it slows down no less.

Tremendous hit for them and all of Grand Bahama island.

[jlauderdal]

Just as I suspected, the ridge north of Dorian is stronger than initially thought. 850 mb steering analysis last night showed that the ridge axis extended west all the way into the North Centra GOM. This explained the ULL west of Dorian contunued west .motion. The ULL was forecasted to droo south.over Cuba 36 hours ago. That is telling to me tight there about the strength of the ridge north of Dorian.

Can anybody explain in simple terms what this could mean for Dorian's future?

It means Dorian could well still slam into Florida. And TV mets have not been stressing this nearly enough IMHO.

they follow the cone-like its a dot on a map which is exactly what they say not do with the track...this is a complex forecast and they have done a poor job in sofla explaining the scenarios and how uncertain it is..not sure it would change preps but if you are going to report things than be accurate about what is really happening...i notice they talk trends alot when its good news and not so much when its not good news, maybe the program directors force the issue