ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[MGC]

Convection sure has diminished since yesterday...will this trend continue and will 92L evaporate? Perhaps.....However, there is still some convection and spin associated with 92L so there is still a possibility of TC formation......MGC

[xironman]

After staring at the floater http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8conv.html for a bit too long, it looks to me like any low level spin has moved to about 13N 46.5W. The only convergence was up the http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8conv.html so maybe something will get going.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It almost looks like there is some sort of low-level circulation up near 13N, 46.5W: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

This is a bit north and east of the old one, but it does look interesting. There is a nice bit of convection on its western side, and the clouds seem to be rotating around that point from W to E on the south side and from E to W on the north side.

Am I just seeing things, or does anyone else agree?

EDIT - lol. Looks like xironman and I posted the same thing at about the same time.

[gatorcane]

Here is a good link to a visible loop that loads quickly (no JAVA) where members can follow 92L.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[xironman]

If you look at High Resolution visible loop http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

If you use that site you need to have a get with all the parameters that would be in the form http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=13.5&lon=-46.5&zoom=1&info=vis&type=Animation&numframes=8&quality=90

[xironman]

Ha,

Yeah we are seeing the same thing. I actually think I see some low level convergence there, if that gets going then 92L could have a chance.

[Blown Away]

Here is a good link to a visible loop that loads quickly (no JAVA) where members can follow 92L.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

WB Gatorcane, I was wondering where you were. If the LLC didn't move up near the convection then it is gone IMO.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is what I am seeing in the latest visible loop...



There definitely appears to be some sort of low or mid level circulation in that vicinity.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Blown Away]

Put an appoximate lat/long on that spot. I can see what you are talking about.

[KWT]

Looks real messy right now, indeed if it carries on showing signs of decay then may not be an invest for much longer. The fact that its still trying to fire some convection is probably whats keeping it as a possible threat down the road.

[cycloneye]

Well,NHC is very interested in it,but will they go starting on tuesday afternoon?

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 111530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT MON 11 AUGUST 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z AUGUST 2008
         TCPOD NUMBER.....08-072

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (APPROCACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
       A. 12/1800Z
       B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
       C. 12/1545Z
       D. 14.0N 55.0W
       E. 12/1730Z TO 12/2200Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
       A. 13/0600Z
       B. AFXXX 02DDA CYCLONE
       C. 13/0300Z
       D. 15.0N 57.0W
       E. 13/0500Z TO 13/0900Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT
         13/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT. NOAA PLANS
       TO FLY TWO DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS DEPARTING BARBADOS
       AT 13/1800Z AND 14/0600Z.


[KWT]

Interesting though if it looks like it does at the moment I see no reason why recon should fly in to be honest. Still recon is interesting to watch!

[xironman]

It may look messy, but it is finishing a transition. This is the first time I have seen the lower level clouds converge in a while.

[KWT]

Will be very interesting to see what the convergence charts show now. The problem is the circulation we did have yesterday is either gone or now very weak indeed. Dolly took forever to get its LLC back after it lost it around the same location.

[xironman]

There is convection popping quite close to the new low - mid level spin. Maybe this is what the models were trying to tell us by having it further north.

[ronjon]

While 92L's chances for development look pretty dismal now, we need to watch this system very carefully down the road. A 200 mb upper level high is forecast by the GFS to build over the Bahamas in 6-8 days which would put 92L in a low shear, extremely warm water set up as it approaches either S FL or the FL straits.

[Blown Away]

Code red, orange, or yellow at 2pm? I say 92L maintains code orange and the LLC and/or MLC has relocated further NW, if that has not happened then this could open up and be done for now. I think 92L is maintaining itself and is slowly getting better organized, compared to this morning.

[zaqxsw75050]

Here is what I am seeing in the latest visible loop...



There definitely appears to be some sort of low or mid level circulation in that vicinity.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If that's the center, the upper level anti-cyclone should be right over the new center, which is a plus for development, instead of getting shear from the upper level anti-cyclone

[x-y-no]

This thing ain't dead yet ... convection is gradually improving over the low/mid level center. Nothing spectacular yet, but improving.

[Steve]

>>This thing ain't dead yet ... convection is gradually improving over the low/mid level center. Nothing spectacular yet, but improving.

That's all I really wanted to say. Anyone saying "poof" "dead" "next" (conversely Cat 5, Doomsday, Death, etc.) should have learned his or her lessons a long time ago. Now if by the end of the week, it's some shower activity plowing into Central America, fine. Until it's off the playing field, however, it is suspect. The smart post isn't the one saying yay or nay, it's the one suggesting patience and observation just in case.

JMO

Steve