Severe Weather - March 25-28 - Mid/Deep South/OH Riv Valley

[CrazyC83]

Has anyone noticed?

All four of Carbin's watches - despite stark differences in wording - had probabilities of 40/20, 30/30, 40/30, 70 - which seem to be averages for tornado watches. Could there be internal problems with SPC's servers preventing changes?

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0306
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1024 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AR...NRN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 82...

VALID 280324Z - 280500Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 82 CONTINUES.

A CONVECTIVE LINE CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS WW 82 WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE A SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL
AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELL ELEMENTS. A
NEW TORNADO WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF NRN AND CNTRL MS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO
NCNTRL TX WITH A DRY SLOT ADVANCING EWD ACROSS ERN OK AND NE TX.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ORIENTED
NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF A MOIST AXIS. LOWER 60S F
DEWPOINTS HAVE SO FAR BEEN CONFINED TO THE SRN PART OF THE WATCH.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AS A LOW-LEVEL JET
EXPANDS SEWD ACROSS ERN AR OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS. THIS WILL
RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN LOW-LEVEL FLOW HELPING TO ORGANIZE THE CONVECTION
ONGOING ACROSS WRN AND SRN AR. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS SHOULD INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN
PART OF THE WATCH AND IN WCNTRL MS. A FEW TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND
WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN ENHANCED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE THREAT
SHOULD EXIST IN THE SERN PART OF WW 82 WHERE A WELL-DEVELOPED BOW
ECHO IS TRACKING NEWD AT 40 KT IN JACKSON PARISH. THE WIND DAMAGE
THREAT MAY ALSO BECOME GREATER IF A SQUALL-LINE CAN ORGANIZE AND
MOVE ACROSS ERN AR INTO WRN MS.

..BROYLES.. 03/28/2009


ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 31369289 31369336 31129353 31199362 31549382 31859385
31999402 33499403 33589387 34189410 34199444 34749441
34669386 34959224 35089209 35069142 34919116 34599110
34509108 34489098 34419099 34359106 34159110 34069089
33809114 33749100 33539112 33409097 33239116 33179111
32999117 32839107 32669118 32579097 32519112 32449100
32299098 32219143 32269154 32409151 32379170 32219186
32179205 32259211 32279229 31779238 31779261 31699257
31689292 31539271 31369289

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1039 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL CONCORDIA PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHERN ADAMS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 1038 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 21 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SIBLEY...OR 15 MILES EAST OF BORDELONVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SIBLEY BY 1115 PM CDT...
KINGSTON BY 1130 PM CDT...

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1041 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
HANCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WAVELAND...DIAMONDHEAD...BAY ST.
LOUIS...
HARRISON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...LONG BEACH...GULFPORT...BILOXI...
NORTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 1115 PM CDT

* AT 1040 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM GULFPORT TO BAY ST. LOUIS TO 12 MILES SOUTH OF PEARLINGTON...
OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GULFPORT TO BAY ST. LOUIS TO 12
MILES SOUTHEAST OF EDEN ISLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
BILOXI AND DIAMONDHEAD BY 1050 PM CDT...
PEARLINGTON AND LYMAN BY 1055 PM CDT...
KILN BY 1105 PM CDT...
SAUCIER BY 1110 PM CDT...

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1043 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NEW AUGUSTA...
WESTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF WAYNESBORO...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 1041 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OVER 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM TALLAHALA TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF BELLEVILLE...OR ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES SOUTH OF ELLISVILLE TO 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF NEW AUGUSTA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
MAHNED BY 1050 PM CDT...
WINGATE AND NEW AUGUSTA BY 1055 PM CDT...
RHODES AND FERGUSON BY 1100 PM CDT...
RICHTON...KITTRELL...HINTONVILLE AND BEAUMONT BY 1105 PM CDT...
STRENGTHFORD BY 1115 PM CDT...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1046 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL CONECUH COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHWESTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MONROEVILLE...
NORTH CENTRAL BALDWIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
SOUTHEASTERN CLARKE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 1046 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OVER 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS NEAR BLACKSHER...OR
ABOUT 22 MILES NORTH OF BAY MINETTE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
MINEOLA...CHRYSLER...MT PLEASANT AND ELISKA BY 1055 PM CDT...
HOMEWOOD AND ELISKA BY 1100 PM CDT...
MANISTEE AND MEGARGEL BY 1110 PM CDT...
PERDUE HILL AND FRISCO CITY BY 1115 PM CDT...

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1049 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN JONES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 1049 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10
MILES SOUTHWEST OF OVETT...OR 7 MILES EAST OF PETAL...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
OVETT BY 1105 PM CDT...

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1059 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL MOREHOUSE PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
RICHLAND PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...START...RAYVILLE...

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT

* AT 1059 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 17
MILES WEST OF BUCKNER...OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF
BROWNSVILLE-BAWCOMVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
9 MILES NORTHWEST OF BUCKNER BY 1125 PM CDT...
7 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALTO BY 1135 PM CDT...
START BY 1140 PM CDT...
RAYVILLE BY 1150 PM CDT...
6 MILES NORTHWEST OF HOLLY RIDGE BY MIDNIGHT CDT...

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1059 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WILKINSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 1059 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR FORT
ADAMS...OR 16 MILES NORTHEAST OF SIMMESPORT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
50 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DOLOROSA BY 1120 PM CDT...

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1101 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN SUMTER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...YORK...CUBA...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 1059 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES
WEST OF KINTERBISH...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF CUBA...AND MOVING NORTH
AT 70 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
CUBA AND YORK BY 1110 PM CDT...
BOYD BY 1120 PM CDT...
EMELLE BY 1125 PM CDT...

THIS INCLUDES
AND INTERSTATE 20 EXIT NUMBERS 8 THROUGH 32.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1106 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN OUACHITA PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WEST MONROE...SWARTZ...MONROE...
BROWNSVILLE-BAWCOMVILLE...

* UNTIL 1145 PM CDT

* AT 1105 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF RICHWOOD...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF
BROWNSVILLE-BAWCOMVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE-BAWCOMVILLE BY 1115 PM CDT...
RICHWOOD...6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MONROE AND 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
WEST MONROE BY 1120 PM CDT...
SWARTZ BY 1135 PM CDT...

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1114 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL MOREHOUSE PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
RICHLAND PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...START...RAYVILLE...

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT

* AT 1114 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BUCKNER...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BROWNSVILLE-BAWCOMVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
7 MILES NORTH OF BUCKNER BY 1120 PM CDT...
ALTO BY 1130 PM CDT...
START BY 1135 PM CDT...
7 MILES NORTH OF ARCHIBALD BY 1140 PM CDT...
RAYVILLE BY 1145 PM CDT...

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1128 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF WAYNESBORO...
SOUTHWESTERN CHOCTAW COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 1215 AM CDT

* AT 1126 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OVER 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS NEAR MULBERRY...OR
ABOUT 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WAYNESBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50
MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
CLARA BY 1140 PM CDT...
WINCHESTER...WAYNESBORO...CHICORA AND ROBINSON JUNCTION BY 1145 PM
CDT...
DENHAM BY 1150 PM CDT...
GRETNA AND AQUILLA BY MIDNIGHT CDT...
ISNEY BY 1205 AM CDT...
SOUWILPA BY 1210 AM CDT...

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1129 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 1230 AM CDT

* AT 1129 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM KINGSTON TO 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF GARDEN CITY TO 17 MILES SOUTH OF GARDEN CITY...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NATCHEZ TO 21
MILES SOUTHEAST OF NATCHEZ TO 21 MILES NORTH OF JACKSON...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
GARDEN CITY BY 1140 PM CDT...
KIRBY BY MIDNIGHT CDT...
BUDE BY 1210 AM CDT...
NEW HOPE BY 1215 AM CDT...
MCCALL CREEK AND LITTLE SPRINGS BY 1225 AM CDT...

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1136 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
WESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT

* AT 1136 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR GARDEN
CITY...OR 16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NATCHEZ...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
KIRBY AND 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HAMBURG BY 1155 PM CDT...

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1144 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN EAST CARROLL PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
NORTHWESTERN MADISON PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
NORTHEASTERN RICHLAND PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHERN WEST CARROLL PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 1230 AM CDT

* AT 1143 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES WEST OF
HOLLY RIDGE...OR NEAR RAYVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
HOLLY RIDGE BY 1155 PM CDT...
9 MILES NORTHWEST OF DELHI BY 1205 AM CDT...
WARDEN BY 1210 AM CDT...
MONTICELLO AND DARNELL BY 1220 AM CDT...

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1145 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTH CENTRAL CHOCTAW COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
WEST CENTRAL CLARKE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CHATOM...

* UNTIL 1230 AM CDT

* AT 1140 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OVER 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS 6 MILES EAST OF
SMITHTOWN...OR ABOUT 18 MILES SOUTH OF WAYNESBORO...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
STATE LINE...BATTLES...YELLOW PINE AND BUCKATUNNA BY 1150 PM CDT...
YARBO...LOPER AND JORDAN BY 1205 AM CDT...
KOENTON BY 1210 AM CDT...
BIGBEE BY 1215 AM CDT...
FRANKVILLE BY 1220 AM CDT...

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0308
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LA...SRN AND CNTRL MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 83...

VALID 280406Z - 280530Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 83 CONTINUES.

A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS ERN LA WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS SCNTRL MS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS CLUSTER WILL INCREASE THE SEVERE
THREAT IN SCNTRL MS IN THE WAKE OF AN MCS NEARING THE SERN MS
STATE-LINE. TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE THIS EVENING.

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS SRN LA
EXTENDING NWD INTO SW MS WHERE AN INTENSE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
ONGOING ATTM. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG A WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS SW MS. THE LATEST
RUC ANALYSIS ALSO SUGGESTS A LOW-LEVEL JET IS ORGANIZING RAPIDLY
ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN MS WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT WITH
THIS CLUSTER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. A WELL-DEVELOPED SUPERCELL IN
WRN WILKINSON COUNTY ALONG WITH OTHER SUPERCELLS THAT ORGANIZE ALONG
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG
TORNADO. IN ADDITION...SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED WITH
LARGE HAIL. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH
FAST-MOVING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.

..BROYLES.. 03/28/2009

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0309
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN AL...FAR SRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 84...

VALID 280451Z - 280615Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 84 CONTINUES.

A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE WRN AND
CNTRL PARTS OF WW 84 WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SEVERE THREAT OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE THREATS MAY INCREASE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW AL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL JET RAPIDLY INCREASING
ACROSS SCNTRL AND CNTRL MS. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT EWD INTO SW AL
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD STRENGTHENING WARM
ADVECTION...INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF WW 84. IN
RESPONSE...THE TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE THREATS SHOULD INCREASE AS
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH AND MOVE
INTO THE WRN EDGE OF THE WATCH. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH
BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS ESPECIALLY IF A SQUALL-LINE CAN ORGANIZE AND
MOVE INTO THE WATCH AS IS SUGGESTED BY SEVERAL MODEL FORECASTS. THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD ALSO INCREASE EWD INTO PARTS OF SCNTRL AL AND
THE WRN FL PANHANDLE LATE IN THE WATCH VALID PERIOD.

..BROYLES.. 03/28/2009

[Brent]

New Day 1:





DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
OH/TN VLYS INTO THE SERN STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
STACKED UPR LOW OVER OK/N TX AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY
TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE LWR OH/TN VLYS AND DEEP SOUTH THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL SHIFT FROM NEAR MEMPHIS NEWD
INTO THE CNTRL GRTLKS REGION BY 12Z SUNDAY. TRAILING CDFNT WILL
SWEEP EWD TO THE S OF THE LOW FROM THE MS VLY EARLY SATURDAY TO THE
APLCNS AND NRN FL BY SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A WARM
FRONT WILL DEVELOP NWD INTO CNTRL/NRN GA...THE CNTRL CAROLINAS...AND
INTO TIDEWATER VA/MD.

...SERN STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS/VA...
ANOTHER COMPLEX CONVECTIVE FCST WITH GREAT UNCERTAINTY WILL EXIST
FOR SATURDAY. CNTRL GULF COAST MCS THAT IGNITED ALONG INCREASING
MOIST SLY LLVL FLOW ON FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE ONGOING AT 12Z ACROSS
ERN MS...AL AND THE FL PNHDL. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...GULF BOUNDARY
LAYER THAT WAS SHUNTED SWD ON FRIDAY...IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NWD INTO
AT LEAST SRN/CNTRL GA AND EVENTUALLY THE CNTRL CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY
AFTN/EVE. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON HOW MUCH HEATING CAN
BE REALIZED...MLCAPES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG FROM SERN AL
NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. A LIKELY MCV...BORNE FROM THE MCS...WILL
MOVE ENEWD INTO THIS INSTABILITY AXIS...SUPPORTING A CONTINUED SVR
THREAT DOWNSTREAM INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS FAR NE AS VA.

SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED STORMS ACROSS THE
REGION OWING TO SLY H85 FLOW OF 50 KTS VEERING TO WSWLY AT H5 IN
EXCESS OF 60 KTS. SUPERCELL MODES WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO
BOWS/LEWPS GIVING DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HIGHEST TORNADO RISK
WILL ACCOMPANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT CAN INTERACT WITH THE RETREATING
WRMFNT...NAMELY FROM SERN AL...CNTRL/SRN GA NEWD INTO THE CNTRL
CAROLINAS.

...TN/OH VLYS...
A SEPARATE AREA OF SVR POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE TN/OH VLYS DURING THE AFTN/EVE. STRONGEST DCVA WILL
TRANSLATE NEWD AWAY FROM THE RICH GULF MOISTURE SOURCE FARTHER SE.
BUT...LINGERING 50S SFC DEW POINTS ARCING BACK ALONG THE CDFNT/SFC
LOW INTO THE LWR OH VLY BENEATH STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED J PER KG. EXPECT THAT
SCTD TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY FROM PARTS OF WRN
KY/MIDDLE TN AMIDST STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. A FEW LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE AND ADVANCE INTO PARTS OF SRN IND...SWRN OH
AND KY/ERN TN DURING THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD DMGG WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY
WITH MORE SUSTAINED STORMS AND CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK. SVR
THREATS WILL DIMINISH WITH NE EXTENT AND AFTER SUNSET.

..RACY/HURLBUT.. 03/28/2009