ATL: INVEST (97L)

[Ed Mahmoud]

I wonder if the mid-level swirl is high enough to cross the Cordillera realtively undisturbed, and reach the disturbed area near the Bahamas.


If that flared up after this wave arrived, would it still be 97L?

Strong upper winds/shear analyzed for 1 pm today by NAM over the Bahamas and Florida, but just North of Hispaniola is an area of lighter winds and even a hint of an anticyclone.

[Weatherboy1]

Thanks wxmany57. I don't think this thing can survive the shear, the landmasses it looks doomed to pass over, etc. But still appears to be trying to fight nonetheless. At the very least, it looks like those of us in South FL may be in for a wet couple of days. Have to get my cylcing in after work today!

[wxman57]

I think the flareup is due to the shear and 97L is not a ts.I think this will pass Florida to the east due to the bermuda high. The same for the area in the Bahamas it will mostly head north.

Both regions of storms are forming in the same way. A tropical wave approaches an upper-level trof and the strong SW winds aloft help to ventilate the storms associated with the wave, causing a brief flare-up. Wind shear will prevent development in both cases here.

[tailgater]

Can someone tell me how high above the surface in feet or meters, is 850mbs. Thanks in advance.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... om=Z&time=

[Ed Mahmoud]

Can someone tell me how high above the surface in feet or meters, is 850mbs. Thanks in advance.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... om=Z&time=

A tad below 4000 feet, usually.

972 meters right now near Hispaniola.

Edit- I think I have a thickness versus actual height above MSL.

Checking...

[tailgater]

Can someone tell me how high above the surface in feet or meters, is 850mbs. Thanks in advance.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... om=Z&time=

A tad below 5000 feet, usually.

972 meters right now near Hispaniola.

Thanks ED sounds like the mountains will tear it up pretty good huh.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Can someone tell me how high above the surface in feet or meters, is 850mbs. Thanks in advance.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... om=Z&time=

A tad below 5000 feet, usually.

972 meters right now near Hispaniola.

Thanks ED sounds like the mountains will tear it up pretty good huh.

OK, just looked at some soundings, 850 mb is a scoshe above 1000 meters. That 972 meters is the 1000-850 mb thickness, I believe, not a height.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Ed Amateur status: COMFIRMED

[tailgater]

LOL
Might just clip the southern edge if the trough doesn't start picking it up soon.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

[wxman57]

Can someone tell me how high above the surface in feet or meters, is 850mbs. Thanks in advance.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... om=Z&time=
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... om=Z&time=

Here's a link with info on the average heights of all the mandatory levels:

http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/details.html

For 850mb, it's typically considered to be 5000 ft. Right now, over the northeast Caribbean the height is about 1530 meters, or about 5020 ft.

[tailgater]

Can someone tell me how high above the surface in feet or meters, is 850mbs. Thanks in advance.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... om=Z&time=
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... om=Z&time=

Here's a link with info on the average heights of all the mandatory levels:

http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/details.html

For 850mb, it's typically considered to be 5000 ft. Right now, over the northeast Caribbean the height is about 1530 meters, or about 5020 ft.

Thanks 57, bookmarked it, do you think 97 will have anything left as some of the models do try and develop something near the Bahamas in the next couple of days

[Sanibel]

The stripped naked swirl that was visible last night should crash into Hispaniola and be it for 97L.

See how the convection stays lit in shear downwind from the naked spiral.

A couple more weeks and these punk systems will take root instead of blowing off.

[wxman57]

Thanks 57, bookmarked it, do you think 97 will have anything left as some of the models do try and develop something near the Bahamas in the next couple of days

I think that the energy/vorticity will move as the dynamic models are forecasting - toward the Bahamas then turn north along the upper trof, embedded along the frontal boundary in a high-shear environment. Could form a wave on the front, but it won't be tropical, most likely.

[tolakram]

Shear is dropping:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Makes sense since the models are now forecasting continue shear and they are nearly always wrong where shear is concerned. I doubt shear will let up enough for anything to form.

[dixiebreeze]

Pressure is down to 1010 mb and Navy now has a track posted (sorry if this was already posted)

[poof121]

Pressure is down to 1010 mb and Navy now has a track posted (sorry if this was already posted)

What's at the Navy looks like an old model plot. Not sure why they would put up an old one...

[wxman57]

Shear is dropping:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Makes sense since the models are now forecasting continue shear and they are nearly always wrong where shear is concerned. I doubt shear will let up enough for anything to form.

It may be dropping in some areas, but the chart indicates shear is still 40-50 kts directly in the path of the disturbance. That's way too high for development. The GFS has been incorrect in forecasting shear to diminish significantly across the NE Caribbean over the past few days. Shear actually increased.

[boca]

The tropical wave will stay to the east of Florida.Look at the water vapor

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html
It's about as far west as its going to go.No heavy rain threat to Florida. We'll remain on the dry side.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[tolakram]

Big outflow boundary heading NW. Poof incoming.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[wxman57]

The tropical wave will stay to the east of Florida.Look at the water vapor

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html
It's about as far west as its going to go.No heavy rain threat to Florida. We'll remain on the dry side.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I think there's a good chance of that, Boca, given the position of the upper trof.