ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[Ptarmigan]

so a new center may form farther west then.....

I know that tropical depressions and storms can have multiple centers and fight to be one.

[summersquall]

Hmmm, if it's decoupled, does that mean there's a good chance the NHC will downgrade it to a wave on the next advisory?

11 AM advisory:

THE SYSTEM MAY STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
DRY AND RELATIVELY STABLE AIR TO ITS NORTH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC...AND MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS A SLOWER
RATE OF INTENSIFICATION.

no mention of a possible downgrade.

[Parungo]

NRL loop:

[KWT]

This jog northwards will do wonders to the risk of a landfall threat and decrease the threat, esp if it can keep the lifting up, every degree will make a difference to the risk of it being left behind by the upper trough.

[ColinDelia]

If you were in a ship right at the center and looked up would you see the swirl in the clouds ? I think you would

[cycloneye]

Hmmm, the circulation is moving NNW while the convection moves west,decopuling?

[plasticup]

This jog northwards will do wonders to the risk of a landfall threat and decrease the threat, esp if it can keep the lifting up, every degree will make a difference to the risk of it being left behind by the upper trough.

But the mesoscale models are weakening the trough and building an impressive high behind it, so I wouldn't write off a westward component after 5 days. You're right, of course, than the farther north it can get now, the more likely it can get into the trough and recurve

[Stephanie]

Hmmm, the circulation is moving NNW while the convection moves west,decopuling?

Looks that way.

[OuterBanker]

Boy I'm glad none of you are my GP.

I would go in for a cold and be declared DOA.

[Portastorm]

Boy I'm glad none of you are my GP.

I would go in for a cold and be declared DOA.

Thanks for the good laugh OuterBanker ... hilarious!

[KWT]

You'd have to have a mega upper high to shunt a system westwards at 35-40N, and its rather rare for that sort of upper high to last long enough push it the whole way from 60W to 72-75W whilst barely gaining any latitude.

Anyway yeah its decoupling, looking like the eCM has the right idea to keep it weak, though note there is something tugging at the LLC from the north for sure.

Easterly shear causing problems...

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[hurricaneCW]

This is pathetic, now we have a decoupling system. I'm so done with this pathetic season. It's so pathetic that even in a moderate La Nina, the Eastern Pacific is doing much better than the Atlantic in late August.

[Hurricaneman]

Is it possible that there may be a relocation happening in the blob next to the vortex

[KWT]

Thats what happens when the easterly trades are too strong, though to be fair HCW this one has plenty of time...

The northward motion really does reduce the risk of a threat down the line though, it may not seem like much but honestly every degree of latitude means the further north it gets and reduces the chances that the upper high can turn it back westwards.

[UpTheCreek]

This is pathetic, now we have a decoupling system. I'm so done with this pathetic season. It's so pathetic that even in a moderate La Nina, the Eastern Pacific is doing much better than the Atlantic in late August.

Have you been easily frustrated your whole life? This is just a small blip, why not wait and see what happens instead of writing it off for the hundredth time?

[cycloneye]

Wow, it has separated bigtime from convection.

Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... dt06L.html

[ROCK]

Thats what happens when the easterly trades are too strong, though to be fair HCW this one has plenty of time...

The northward motion really does reduce the risk of a threat down the line though, it may not seem like much but honestly every degree of latitude means the further north it gets and reduces the chances that the upper high can turn it back westwards.

though the LLC might have jogged some north but the overall steering for this pressure is westward....I suspect this is temporary and back west we go if this does in fact loop around.....not sold on a decouple...well not yet anyway...

[cpdaman]

this board is humorous.

Decouple ...i think not

When Aric jumps ship then i may as well....but that's a few hours off.

[CrazyC83]

Looking at that loop, it does seem like a relocation is underway or trying to get underway beneath the convection.