ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Aric Dunn]

I see a pretty strong Mid level circ dead center ... convection increasing around it.. maybe a surface circ is developing there as well. convection is key..

looks a whole lot better from the wide view...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.html

Did you pinpointed a lat-lon?

about 12.5N 48.5 W

[cycloneye]

Those who live in the Eastern Caribbean can visit the Caribbean thread at USA & Caribbean Weather forum to post all about preparations.

[Gustywind]

I measured a 24 hr movement of 290 deg at 15.8 kts. That's a common speed for the region. Note that the Bermuda high is a bit east of its normal position now. Once the disturbance nears the Antilles it should really slow down, as indicated by the models. that's where it would intensify quickly.

NHC doesn't appear to like to upgrade disturbances that are threatening the eastern Caribbean without recon. Remember Tomas last year? That one was a TD a good 24 hours before recon could get there, and it really caught the eastern Caribbean residents by surprise. I'm hoping that the NHC upgrades this system by 4pm today so that residents aren't caught off-guard again.

Impact would be in just over 48 hrs early PM Monday for the Lesser Antilles (near Guadeloupe) and Tuesday afternoon/evening for the U.S. and British Virgin Island (just over 72 hrs). Not much time for residents or businesses to prepare if the NHC delays in upgrading it.

Excellent analysis, 100% agree, thanks.

Word from Culebra and PR is that everyone is preparing, whether or not there is an upgrade...Hope for the best, prepare for the worst...it works!

Glad to see you caribpr ok if all is ok... don't think it the same here in Guadeloupe. Whereas we continue to monitor closely the situation in the Leewards.

[floridasun78]

wxman57 you think hwrf could right showing high rebuilding as maybe hurr headed toward bahamas?

[Gustywind]

[Aric Dunn]

Have to say the upper level outflow is quite impressive. and it does appear to getting a little better organized than this morning.. some of the linear features are not present now and seems to have some more curvature again. could have just been a optical illusion earlier because of the way the convection looked

[Ivanhater]

wxman57 you think hwrf could right showing high rebuilding as maybe hurr headed toward bahamas?

The HWRF does not show a rebuilding high or a hurricane heading for the Bahamas.

[SouthDadeFish]

Will be interesting to see if the Dvorak estimates are at T 1.0 at 18Z or stay at too weak.

[Frank2]

This from the Miami NWS WSFO discussion:

EXTENDED FORECAST...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE DEEP EASTERLY WIND
FLOW BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS WIND CIRCULATION ABOUT THE RETREATING
HIGH AND THE DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE E COME INTO PLAY. UPPER FLOW
BECOMES WESTERLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE AN EASTERLY REGIME
REDEVELOPS FRIDAY AS THE HIGH REBUILDS EASTWARD. AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EMPHASIS SHIFTS TOWARD THE E MIDWEEK.

apparently they have high confidence of a deeping trough in the Western Atlantic...

Frank

[floridasun78]

wxman57 you think hwrf could right showing high rebuilding as maybe hurr headed toward bahamas?

The HWRF does not show a rebuilding high or a hurricane heading for the Bahamas.

so were it showing going?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I posted the below in the general model thread, but I think it is worth reposting here:

I suspect this, at least in part, is the cause. There has been a persistent synoptic pattern of a trough over/off the West Coast, a ridge over the mid-section of North America and another trough over/off the East Coast more or less since late April. The pattern shifted into a ridge over both the Mid-Section and the East Coast throughout most of July, however now the familiar configuration seems to be returning in August as the Mid-Section "Death Ridge" retreats back from whence it came. If this pattern remains in place (weak Bermuda-Azores High and a persistent East Coast Trough) it will be very difficult for most storms to penetrate the East Coast of North American north of Florida.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CrazyC83]

I'm still not buying an east coast threat or recurve here. I still think this is a Caribbean or Gulf threat. Could be anywhere between Nicaragua and Louisiana though in the end, and an EPAC threat if it fails to develop.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

wxman57 you think hwrf could right showing high rebuilding as maybe hurr headed toward bahamas?

The HWRF does not show a rebuilding high or a hurricane heading for the Bahamas.

so were it showing going?

If it continues to develop at the current rate, my guess would be an eventual recurve between Cape Hatteras and Bermuda.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

The 850 mb vorticity has improved.



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[msbee]

If you are on Facebook, CROWNWEATHER has a Facebook page which they update frequently.

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Crown-Wea ... 7286264871

They have just sent this note to all their members.

PLEASE PASS THIS ON TO ALL FAMILY & FRIENDS IN THE NE CARIBBEAN
by Crown Weather Services on Saturday, July 30, 2011 at 10:52am
Let everyone you know in the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico know that Invest 91L is expected to slow down in forward speed just as it nears the Lesser Antilles & this is where it may quickly intensify. If the NHC waits for recon to upgrade this (tomorrow afternoon), it will give much less time to prepare, much like what happened with Tomas from last year. The impact from this system as a strong TS or a hurricane will be starting Mon afternoon across the Leeward Islands & starting Tue afternoon for the US Virgin Islands and the British Virgin Islands. So, prepare today for a possible impact from this potential strong TS or hurricane.

[floridasun78]

I'm still not buying an east coast threat or recurve here. I still think this is a Caribbean or Gulf threat. Could be anywhere between Nicaragua and Louisiana though in the end, and an EPAC threat if it fails to develop.

this unlikly will go to western carribbean no models show it

['CaneFreak]

This from the Miami NWS WSFO discussion:

EXTENDED FORECAST...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE DEEP EASTERLY WIND
FLOW BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS WIND CIRCULATION ABOUT THE RETREATING
HIGH AND THE DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE E COME INTO PLAY. UPPER FLOW
BECOMES WESTERLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE AN EASTERLY REGIME
REDEVELOPS FRIDAY AS THE HIGH REBUILDS EASTWARD. AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EMPHASIS SHIFTS TOWARD THE E MIDWEEK.

apparently they have high confidence of a deeping trough in the Western Atlantic...

Frank

[Portastorm]

I'm still not buying an east coast threat or recurve here. I still think this is a Caribbean or Gulf threat. Could be anywhere between Nicaragua and Louisiana though in the end, and an EPAC threat if it fails to develop.

this unlikly will go to western carribbean no models show it

I guess you didn't see the latest GFS ensemble runs (individual members).

[Evil Jeremy]

I'm still not buying an east coast threat or recurve here. I still think this is a Caribbean or Gulf threat. Could be anywhere between Nicaragua and Louisiana though in the end, and an EPAC threat if it fails to develop.

this unlikly will go to western carribbean no models show it

This far out nothing is unlikely. Well, it is unlikely that this will end up in the west pacific, but you get my point. This can still be anyone's problem.

[sunnyday]

So...do most of you feel like it will recurve? I mentioned that yesterday because I think it was the Euro that indicated that possibility, and someone said I was being hasty. BTW, I hate recurves.