ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TimeZone]

Shear looks like it's relaxing to me. Really starting to look good now. It looks like a large system as well.

[seussianagenda]

So I'm in Norfolk, and it "feels" like a rainy, humid July night. It "feels" like 'cane weather. I know that doesn't mean anything press, but it sure does feel too hot and sticky for a late Sept night.

[blp]

Is it me or is it starting to pick up some more speed in the last frames. Also looks like the eye like feature.

[Aric Dunn]

Is it me or is it starting to pick up some more speed in the last frames. Also looks like the eye like feature.

http://i57.tinypic.com/b3o395.gif

well its moving W to wsw .. but dont be fooled by the quickly expanding convection to the west.

[windnrain]

Every frame it looks stronger and better.

[hurricanedude]

seussianagenda.. I agree Im down the road in Virginia Beach and the temp and dewpoint is 80 degrees...purely tropical air..also thunderstorms have knocked out power to over 5000 in Va Beach including me and its HOT in the house as well

[blp]

Is it me or is it starting to pick up some more speed in the last frames. Also looks like the eye like feature.

[]http://i57.tinypic.com/b3o395.gif[/img]

well its moving W to wsw .. but dont be fooled by the quickly expanding convection to the west.

Is is where that eye like warm feature appears on the NW side. I am trying to follow that to see motion.

[emeraldislenc]

Warm and very muggy at Emerald Isle,NC too. Feels like August!

[Aric Dunn]

Is it me or is it starting to pick up some more speed in the last frames. Also looks like the eye like feature.

[]http://i57.tinypic.com/b3o395.gif[/img]

well its moving W to wsw .. but dont be fooled by the quickly expanding convection to the west.

Is is where that eye like warm feature appears on the NW side. I am trying to follow that to see motion.

in that general area.. not calling it an eye feature yet. need more data microwave or recon ...

[chaser1]

looks like the first cane west of 60. with the trof and the cane i would expect possible floyd like flooding in nc and va. assuming it stays well offshore we could still get very high tides.

Stay vigilant, Ninel!

LMAO; Nope... dont wake him. He'll be so upset seeing this. It would be akin to dragging a kid into a candy store, during a tantrum refusing to eat a-n-y-t-h-i-n-g!

[hurricanekid416]

Weve got the same feeling in delaware with some rain coming down

[northjaxpro]

EURO appears to have this right about Joaquin. Called for rapid strengthening in model runs more than 24 hours ago.

Joaquin is organizing rapidly, depite the northerly shear. Already down to 988 mb and I think if the trends continue, may become hurricane by 11:00 p.m. tonight.

Joaquin is turning out to be the most impressive system of the North Atlantic basin this season in my opinion, even moreso than Danny because mainly this system made the very rare transisition of being a large upper level Low to becoming what apparently will be a hurricane shortly. Talk about an overachieving system!! I called the transistion to happen, but I never thought it could explode into a potential dangerous tropical cyclone, given how hostile it has been all season in the ATL basin. But, the sst's temps in that area Joaquin is in currently are so primed and untapped for a system like Joaquin to really thrive on, like lighting a match of dynamite.

Joaquin may also do what Danny did earlier this season, and that is to find a sweet spot, even if only for a very short time, to rapidly intensify. That is what Danny did for that brief time, found a sweet spot with light shear.

[LarryWx]

Aric, agreed. However, I think that one low probability situation that could conceivably throw a monkey wrench into this (related to other posts showing higher level mean steering being faster and more to the SW) would be rapid strengthening very soon raising the mean steering level a lot, something zero model runs have shown.
Opinion?

[CrazyC83]

As I suspected, not sure if I'd use a shear pattern.

TXNT23 KNES 300007
TCSNTL

A. 11L (JOAQUIN)

B. 29/2345Z

C. 26.0N

D. 71.6W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...DT=3.5 BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH LOW LEVEL CENTER 1/3
DG INTO CONVECTION. PT=3.5. MET=3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

29/2207Z 26.2N 71.5W SSMIS


...SCHWARTZ

I'd have gone with T4.0 on an embedded center pattern, but I am just not confident enough to go above 60 kt right now.

[CrazyC83]

It's been quite muggy for late September here too today, although the front being almost right over me has resulted in oscillating humidity today.

[tolakram]

Live 20 frame IR loop

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

you can change palette=ir3.pal to any number between 2 and 9 to see different color enhancements.

[ozonepete]

The symmetry is impressive. Will help it to continue strengthening. When was the last time we saw this east of the Bahamas?

[Aric Dunn]

Sorry for the crudeness of this just threw it together. but following the convective pattern last few hours and using microwave. this is the best estiamte on the center. roughly 25.7n 71.5 W

[TimeZone]

It's getting that classic "comma shape" starting to look scary. I would be surprised if this was NOT a Hurricane right now personally.

[northjaxpro]

Yes ozonepete it certainly does. Anytime you see that "curl" look , for me that means a system that is organizing very well. Joaquin is shaping up potentially of being an impressive tropical cyclone, at least in the short term.