ATL: MICHAEL - Models

[p1nheadlarry]

Shifts to the west for the UK

https://i.imgur.com/e2yCNug.gif


Looks like the 6Z Euro is working

https://i.imgur.com/IO4S5UP.png

Two points here; one being quite interesting how the UK has actually trended west with the track. Wonder if having to do with either speeding up the storms forward motion prior to landfall, or if by chance it's a matter of backing off the earlier forecast of a more intense storm??

More curiously is this 6Z EPS run. I forgot that the EURO was soon going to implement 6Z and 18Z model runs. This chart obviously depicts the many ensemble members. Note that a somewhat larger percentage of the stronger members tend to bend NE earlier and sharper then most of the other members. Other question though is regarding that black center solid line. Is this to represent a westward shift of the 6Z operational EURO, or is that simply an average of all ensemble members line?

Fairly certain that is the average of the ensemble envelope

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Just curouis...which model plot is that heading to pasco/hernando county

nvm that isnt a spaghetti model

[sponger]

Sure hope I am not up 12 hours from now waiting on the Euro.

[pgoss11]

12Z Euro running now, but initialized at 993 mb

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro quite a bit faster (NNW of 0Z). So, almost definitely will come in west of the 0Z Euro.

[fox13weather]

Just curouis...which model plot is that heading to pasco/hernando county

nvm that isnt a spaghetti model

it is the ignore model

[pgoss11]

12Z Euro quite a bit faster (NNW of 0Z). So, almost definitely will come in west of the 0Z Euro.

12Z looks NE of the 0Z to me.

[chaser1]

12Z Euro quite a bit faster (NNW of 0Z). So, almost definitely will come in west of the 0Z Euro.

Wait, the 24 hr. EURO just loaded. Yes, faster but ..... it's also 1 full degree further east then prior 0Z for this time

[chaser1]

24 hr. Euro for 12Z Tue. now shows Michael at 86.7 W, where as the prior 0Z run placed the 12 Z Tue. point at 87.6 W

[Laser30033003]

can you show that run ???

[storm4u]

Hour 48 way north and slightly west

12Z Euro quite a bit faster (NNW of 0Z). So, almost definitely will come in west of the 0Z Euro.

Wait, the 24 hr. EURO just loaded. Yes, faster but ..... it's also 1 full degree further east then prior 0Z for this time

[stormlover2013]

this run of the euro is west of the 00z run

[LarryWx]

I'm not sure what you folks are seeing. 12z Euro definitely coming in 50-100 miles further west (in panhandle instead of Apal) due to faster speed.

[storm4u]

It definitely will

this run of the euro is west of the 00z run

[stormlover2013]

yeah prob about 100 miles it looks like.

[NDG]

Amazing how the Euro has been playing catch up with the GFS with this storm all along, it is now close on landfall timing with the GFS.

[chaser1]

48hr. then shoots the storm due north, and fast! About 2 degrees south of Pensacola more or less and does have it strengthen a little but less so then the prior run.

[tolakram]

[ColdMiser123]

Euro is 12 mb too weak with Michael right now, still deepens the storm down to 945 right before landfall.

[chaser1]

ENE turn coming .... wait for it.... wait for it.....