ATL: BETA - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Water temps below 80 degrees? Where are you getting this? NHC has it becoming a hurricane, hard to go against them.

well I am going against them lol they can be wrong sometimes

According to this map...temps are plenty warm.

https://www.maineharbors.com/weather/seatemp4.htm

if you have any questions about SSTs.. go straight the source.. the Buoys.

they are all in the mid 80s.

even the buoys where sally just came ashore still show 81 degrees despite what the maps show..

after all it is just a map..

[kassi]

peep the last frame of the gfs... look at the high setup to the east. looks whats in the gulf again

Would you post it in the models thread and explain what you're talking about? Tia.

Nevermind. I don't want your opinion. You appear to be a troublemaker.

[Nederlander]

I think this guy needs a disclaimer for his posts. Use to be a requirement when posting opinions. Maybe I am wrong. So correct me if that is the case.

Just flag it to mods when someone spouts off something as factual when it’s not

[wkwally]

wind shear and water temps below 80 degrees will keep this under control and due to trade wind inversion this is not going to intensify.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

Water temps below 80 degrees? Where are you getting this? NHC has it becoming a hurricane, hard to go against them.

well I am going against them lol they can be wrong sometimes

True that sometimes the NHS and other pro mets can be off BUT not often. It is best if your statements are not backed by real facts it is best you do not post in order not to confuse otherrs like my self who use this site to assist in our choices on how and when to prepare for a storm.

[mpic]

Can we get back to serious discussion please?

[tailgater]

Beta seems to have slowed to a crawl per last 2 VDM’s and what I’m seeing on Visible sat loops.

[Cpv17]

Beta seems to have slowed to a crawl per last 2 VDM’s and what I’m seeing on Visible sat loops.

It’s probably about to turn west.

[catskillfire51]

Beta seems to have slowed to a crawl per last 2 VDM’s and what I’m seeing on Visible sat loops.

think that's a sign for the turn to the west to start?

[Aric Dunn]

How is saying i dont think this is forming into a hurricane un factual... this is a discussion thread... obviously my water temps comment was a troll to get some of you to start talking..
15 years tracking storms and its the same ole same ole, now tell me how BETA forms into a hurricane. Discuss that. Change my mind with your science. Can you?

Well first off, its still early and has plenty of time over water. although the shear forecast was a bit off... the shear should relax soon and convection will build back.

So if your saying it wont become on a hurricane on the NHCs time table.. well thats the tropics for you. but you should know that after 15 years right ?

It can still very easily become a hurricane.

[gfsperpendicular]

Why are people on this forum so bad at identifying and ignoring trolls lol

[tailgater]

Dry air and shear keeping Beta in check, Organization? and warm GOM waters trying to strengthen system.

[SETXstorms]

just got some fresh model guidance
2 models take it barely over hurricane status..
majority barely gets it over 50 kts

[Visioen]

Predicting this will be a cat 1 isn't hype

[SoupBone]

Dry air and shear keeping Beta in check, Organization? and warm GOM waters trying to strengthen system.

https://i.imgur.com/T59Fzsd.jpg

So far, and I know things can change, but this would be a huge deal if not for the dry air/shear. That's really the only things holding it back.

[jasons2k]

How is saying i dont think this is forming into a hurricane un factual... this is a discussion thread... obviously my water temps comment was a troll to get some of you to start talking..
15 years tracking storms and its the same ole same ole, now tell me how BETA forms into a hurricane. Discuss that. Change my mind with your science. Can you?

After 15 years of storm tracking you should know that trolling gets you banned! Stop it now or you’re about to get a vacation out of here!

[Nederlander]

How is saying i dont think this is forming into a hurricane un factual... this is a discussion thread... obviously my water temps comment was a troll to get some of you to start talking..
15 years tracking storms and its the same ole same ole, now tell me how BETA forms into a hurricane. Discuss that. Change my mind with your science. Can you?

It wasn’t obvious. And people do lurk here for information that don’t know as much as someone with your expertise. It’s irresponsible at best. That’s the last I’m going to say about. Back to Beta.

[Aric Dunn]

just got some fresh model guidance
2 models take it barely over hurricane status..
majority barely gets it over 50 kts


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/22L_intensity_latest.png

Whats your point ?

they did the same thing initially for just about every system this year. Hanna, Laura, Isalsa, Sally, Marco, etc.. models all showed a weak system. and we know how those turned out..

model intensity is especially in the early stages are highly variable and more often than not wrong.

what else do you have ?

[Visioen]

Predicting this will be a cat 1 isn't hype

there's hype about it being the next "harvey", not talking about it in that way lol

Well that hype isn't occuring here. You have come to the right place.

[stormlover2013]

Convection trying to build around center

[SETXstorms]

just got some fresh model guidance
2 models take it barely over hurricane status..
majority barely gets it over 50 kts


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/22L_intensity_latest.png

Whats your point ?

they did the same thing initially for just about every system this year. Hanna, Laura, Isalsa, Sally, Marco, etc.. models all showed a weak system. and we know how those turned out..

model intensity is especially in the early stages are highly variable and more often than not wrong.

what else do you have ?

early stages? bro the storm is sitting off the coast, its a sheared mess and you know that. It's fighting mid to upper level shear and it's in a highly unfavorable spot right now to develop.