ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[skillz305]

https://i.postimg.cc/JnPtFWWL/goes16-ir-09-L-202409231815.gif

notice the face it made?

[TallyTracker]

Got my hotel tentatively booked in Alabama. If it shifts west, I shift west too.

I am in Sopchoppy and booked a hotel in northern Tally yesterday, but, I am rethinking that right now. Might head Alabama way. I just didn't want to be too far away. Stay safe!

You should be headed to Vero Beach or other South and East areas, NOT north or west.

We’re in the Panhandle so it’s a much shorter jaunt for us to go to Alabama and points west. I do agree those in Central Florida need to head east or southeast and not north.

[MetroMike]

Possible LL circulation? Hmmmm

[robbielyn]

i think because it still hasn’t formed into a storm yet, and tv media mets downplaying it due to not wanting to be accused of fearmongering since the track can definitely change, is why so many haven’t heard of it or think it won’t be that bad. how many times hv we been told it’s gonna be bad and the dry air or unpredicted shear weakened a storm complacency is real. only those like us who are glued to the tropics looking at models etc really know how serious this is. my walmart had people buying water but there was plenty left. it wasn’t like tomorrow will be.

[eastcoastFL]

underthwx, Highly unlikely. The trough would not be that far south to shove it into South Florida. It could get put into Central Florida and then travel the spine from there, but I wouldn’t expect anymore south of I-4 area

There's also a ridge over the northern Gulf right now that will slide east and cover much of South Florida in the coming days. So the storm would most likely be traveling around the periphery of that ridge keeping it away from South Florida. But of course that's all up to mother nature at this point.

[weeniepatrol]

[eastcoastFL]

i think because it still hasn’t formed into a storm yet, and tv media mets downplaying it due to not wanting to be accused of fearmongering since the track can definitely change, is why so many haven’t heard of it or think it won’t be that bad. how many times hv we been told it’s gonna be bad and the dry air or unpredicted shear weakened a storm complacency is real. only those like us who are glued to the tropics looking at models etc really know how serious this is. my walmart had people buying water but there was plenty left. it wasn’t like tomorrow will be.

I think the general public is unaware because it was just designated this morning while most people were at work. They're getting home now and seeing it on the news for the first time. While us weather nerds have been watching the models for a week.

[Category5Kaiju]

i think because it still hasn’t formed into a storm yet, and tv media mets downplaying it due to not wanting to be accused of fearmongering since the track can definitely change, is why so many haven’t heard of it or think it won’t be that bad. how many times hv we been told it’s gonna be bad and the dry air or unpredicted shear weakened a storm complacency is real. only those like us who are glued to the tropics looking at models etc really know how serious this is. my walmart had people buying water but there was plenty left. it wasn’t like tomorrow will be.

I think the general public is unaware because it was just designated this morning while most people were at work. They're getting home now and seeing it on the news for the first time. While us weather nerds have been watching the models for a week.

Once this gets a name, it'll attract more media attention.

And several days from now, I'm fairly confident that it's going to be among the top national news stories.

[Travorum]

Heard from family that it was over an hour wait for gas at Costco in Clearwater, so some people here in Pinellas are starting to take notice.

[Steve]

i think because it still hasn’t formed into a storm yet, and tv media mets downplaying it due to not wanting to be accused of fearmongering since the track can definitely change, is why so many haven’t heard of it or think it won’t be that bad. how many times hv we been told it’s gonna be bad and the dry air or unpredicted shear weakened a storm complacency is real. only those like us who are glued to the tropics looking at models etc really know how serious this is. my walmart had people buying water but there was plenty left. it wasn’t like tomorrow will be.

I think the general public is unaware because it was just designated this morning while most people were at work. They're getting home now and seeing it on the news for the first time. While us weather nerds have been watching the models for a week.

It’s main news in New Orleans even though it’s not a threat to the area. Weather is usually the top news here anyway though.

[Michele B]

I am in Sopchoppy and booked a hotel in northern Tally yesterday, but, I am rethinking that right now. Might head Alabama way. I just didn't want to be too far away. Stay safe!

You should be headed to Vero Beach or other South and East areas, NOT north or west.

We’re in the Panhandle so it’s a much shorter jaunt for us to go to Alabama and points west. I do agree those in Central Florida need to head east or southeast and not north.

Oh! I thought you were near (south of) Big Bend area.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think it will be quite sometime before we know with confidence if this will be a Cat 1, 2, or maybe a Cat 3 at landfall. But we might start getting some clues based on how long it takes to get its act together.

[StPeteMike]

I think it will be quite sometime before we know with confidence if this will be a Cat 1, 2, or maybe a Cat 3 at landfall. But we might start getting some clues based on how long it takes to get its act together.

1002 pressure with 35 mph winds at the 8 pm advisory. Think it’s safe to say she is on her way in getting her act together.

[ScottNAtlanta]

https://i.postimg.cc/JnPtFWWL/goes16-ir-09-L-202409231815.gif

notice the face it made?

Very Red Lips

[sponger]

Heard from family that it was over an hour wait for gas at Costco in Clearwater, so some people here in Pinellas are starting to take notice.

A statement on increasing awareness and a broke consumer. Waiting an hour to save 5 bucks is quite remarkable. I was wondering if finances might keep people under prepared as most are living week to week. Could be a huge challenge not seen in some time.

[Nederlander]

https://imgur.com/Ss4ZB21

I suspect the next vis loop will look a bit different..

[eastcoastFL]

i think because it still hasn’t formed into a storm yet, and tv media mets downplaying it due to not wanting to be accused of fearmongering since the track can definitely change, is why so many haven’t heard of it or think it won’t be that bad. how many times hv we been told it’s gonna be bad and the dry air or unpredicted shear weakened a storm complacency is real. only those like us who are glued to the tropics looking at models etc really know how serious this is. my walmart had people buying water but there was plenty left. it wasn’t like tomorrow will be.

I think the general public is unaware because it was just designated this morning while most people were at work. They're getting home now and seeing it on the news for the first time. While us weather nerds have been watching the models for a week.

Once this gets a name, it'll attract more media attention.

And several days from now, I'm fairly confident that it's going to be among the top national news stories.

I'm sure you're right. Normally that wouldn't be such a big issue. The problem we face with this storm is the lead time is minimal. 2 days from now SW FL and the keys will start to feel the beginning effects of this storm. 3 days from now it will be approaching some part of our coastline.

[mantis83]

underthwx, Highly unlikely. The trough would not be that far south to shove it into South Florida. It could get put into Central Florida and then travel the spine from there, but I wouldn’t expect anymore south of I-4 area

There's also a ridge over the northern Gulf right now that will slide east and cover much of South Florida in the coming days. So the storm would most likely be traveling around the periphery of that ridge keeping it away from South Florida. But of course that's all up to mother nature at this point.

South Florida force field is no joke!

[eastcoastFL]

I think it will be quite sometime before we know with confidence if this will be a Cat 1, 2, or maybe a Cat 3 at landfall. But we might start getting some clues based on how long it takes to get its act together.

1002 pressure with 35 mph winds at the 8 pm advisory. Think it’s safe to say she is on her way in getting her act together.

I would agree. Convection has been persistent on IR tonight as well.

[sponger]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=ir

Seems obvious the Southern portion is still impacted by shear but the Northern half seems to be doing just fine.