TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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gkrangers

#541 Postby gkrangers » Mon Aug 08, 2005 8:01 pm

853
WHXX01 KWBC 090054
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE (AL092005) ON 20050809 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050809 0000 050809 1200 050810 0000 050810 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.5N 52.1W 22.4N 53.2W 22.5N 54.5W 22.8N 56.1W
BAMM 22.5N 52.1W 22.4N 53.5W 22.4N 55.1W 22.5N 56.9W
A98E 22.5N 52.1W 22.8N 54.3W 23.1N 56.2W 23.7N 57.9W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050811 0000 050812 0000 050813 0000 050814 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.4N 58.0W 25.0N 61.8W 26.7N 64.7W 27.4N 66.0W
BAMM 22.8N 58.9W 23.8N 62.8W 24.9N 65.8W 25.4N 67.6W
A98E 24.6N 59.7W 27.0N 63.0W 29.0N 64.9W 30.1N 63.6W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.5N LONCUR = 52.1W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 22.2N LONM12 = 49.9W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 21.3N LONM24 = 47.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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#542 Postby djones65 » Mon Aug 08, 2005 8:02 pm

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/05080900
They appear to be incomplete as it does not include the SHIPS intensity forecast nor the LBAR model, but nevertheless.... a SIGNIFICANT shift westward in the forecast by the BAMM and BAMD as well as the A98E!!
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#543 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 08, 2005 8:02 pm

cycloneye wrote:Ok folks let's stop the personal statements and return to what this thread is about to discuss all about a weak system TD Irene.Really that personal discussion is not good for the forum to have so I respectfully say cut it please.The thread is going very good until the latest posts so let's do the right thing guys.
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boca
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#544 Postby boca » Mon Aug 08, 2005 8:03 pm

Ivanhater I think your name speaks for itself. I guess I need to change my name from Boca to Frances and Jeanne hater. :lol:
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gkrangers

#545 Postby gkrangers » Mon Aug 08, 2005 8:04 pm

BAMM and BAMD both shifted SW a bit.

A98E is junk.

Curious there is no LBAR or SHIPS..the LBAR has been calling for recurve.
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Ivanhater
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#546 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 08, 2005 8:04 pm

boca wrote:Ivanhater I think your name speaks for itself. I guess I need to change my name from Boca to Frances and Jeanne hater. :lol:


lol
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WeatherEmperor
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#547 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Aug 08, 2005 8:06 pm

does this happen alot where the LBAR doesnt show up?

<RICKY>
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gkrangers

#548 Postby gkrangers » Mon Aug 08, 2005 8:06 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:does this happen alot where the LBAR doesnt show up?

<RICKY>
I haven't seen it not show up. Not sure why. Maybe they had a problem running it.
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Ivanhater
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#549 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 08, 2005 8:08 pm

wow , that is a big shift west
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boca
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#550 Postby boca » Mon Aug 08, 2005 8:08 pm

Do you have the graphics of the latest model runs?
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#551 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Aug 08, 2005 8:10 pm

graphic hasnt updated yet. give it another few minutes.

<RICKY>
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#552 Postby wxwatcher91 » Mon Aug 08, 2005 8:11 pm

Image
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boca
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#553 Postby boca » Mon Aug 08, 2005 8:12 pm

Thanks weatherEmperor
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DESTRUCTION5
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#554 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Aug 08, 2005 8:28 pm

Deep Tropic Models Bamm and Bamd..are Trending even further west!
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#555 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 08, 2005 8:34 pm

convection is building again, whats new...lol
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#556 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Aug 08, 2005 8:35 pm

yeah, tell me about it...up and down up and down...i think irene is playing with us all...lol
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mvtrucking
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#557 Postby mvtrucking » Mon Aug 08, 2005 8:45 pm

Is it possible for Irene to stay at or below 25N and make it into the gulf?If so what would have to happen. Miss the weakness in the ridge? Or is this out of the question?
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boca
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#558 Postby boca » Mon Aug 08, 2005 8:46 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

If this is not due west then what is it that I am seeing.
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ROCK
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#559 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 08, 2005 8:49 pm

boca wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html

If this is not due west then what is it that I am seeing.



looks like it will miss the next NHC forecast point to the south.......I'm not sure if its due west from the vis but it sure is close......
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Ivanhater
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#560 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 08, 2005 8:51 pm

im staying with my west statement
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