TD 10...Back Again

Wnghs2007 · #541 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Wed Aug 17, 2005 1:41 pm

Hmm, already over half a thousand Posts in this thread... lol

Thunder44 · #542 Postby **Thunder44** » Wed Aug 17, 2005 1:42 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:thats only 1 Dvorak classification.

and I can guarantee that best track will have the system as a TD today and for the past several

You are the first pro-met that has said that. Most of the others are like the system is dying, there is outflow on the LLC, etc. How confident are you that this thing will indeed redevelop into TD10?

<RICKY>

This system is not dying.

I didnt say it was dying. If you carefully read my post I said that most of the "others" meaning other pro-mets beside Derek Ortt implied specifically yesterday that the LLC was dying. I dont wanna name any names here.

<RICKY>

I know. On Sunday this system was downgraded because there was dying convection well removed from the center. If it look they way it does today back then, it would not of been downgraded.

This afternoon while the convection is still pulsing, it's more frequent and closer to the center. There is also more banding evident. Yeah there are outflow boundaries, but you can't expect everything to perfect, especially for a TD. It's definitely better organized than yesterday and probably little more than this morning. This is a TD again.

#543 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 17, 2005 1:43 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN (AL102005) ON 20050817 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050817 1800 050818 0600 050818 1800 050819 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.3N 56.4W 18.4N 58.4W 19.4N 60.4W 20.4N 62.4W
BAMM 17.3N 56.4W 18.3N 58.7W 19.6N 61.1W 20.9N 63.4W
A98E 17.3N 56.4W 18.3N 58.1W 19.4N 60.0W 20.9N 62.0W
LBAR 17.3N 56.4W 18.5N 58.1W 19.8N 60.0W 21.2N 61.9W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050819 1800 050820 1800 050821 1800 050822 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.2N 64.1W 21.9N 67.6W 22.0N 71.2W 22.4N 74.6W
BAMM 22.1N 65.4W 23.5N 69.0W 24.3N 71.9W 25.1N 74.6W
A98E 22.3N 64.5W 25.2N 70.2W 26.5N 74.7W 26.1N 76.9W
LBAR 22.4N 63.6W 24.0N 67.1W 24.5N 70.3W 24.9N 73.2W
SHIP 43KTS 52KTS 57KTS 62KTS
DSHP 43KTS 52KTS 57KTS 62KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.3N LONCUR = 56.4W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 16.3N LONM12 = 54.8W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 16.0N LONM24 = 53.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

18:00z Model Guidance.Starting to move more WNW and if that continues the northern leewards will not see the center of the system.

#544 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Wed Aug 17, 2005 1:44 pm

I agree Thunder. I just wish some of the others would see it hat way too.

<RICKY>

#545 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Aug 17, 2005 1:45 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:So the GFDL is starting to show a more northward turn? Works for me.

<RICKY>

The 12Z GFDL (just out) dissipates the system at about 72 hours.

As for my thoughs, I certainly didn't proclaim the disturbance dying. I said 50-60% chance of TS in 3-4 days and possibly a hurricane if it's over water long enough.

du1st · #546 Postby **du1st** » Wed Aug 17, 2005 1:45 pm

Thunder44 wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:thats only 1 Dvorak classification.

and I can guarantee that best track will have the system as a TD today and for the past several

You are the first pro-met that has said that. Most of the others are like the system is dying, there is outflow on the LLC, etc. How confident are you that this thing will indeed redevelop into TD10?

<RICKY>

This system is not dying.

I didnt say it was dying. If you carefully read my post I said that most of the "others" meaning other pro-mets beside Derek Ortt implied specifically yesterday that the LLC was dying. I dont wanna name any names here.

<RICKY>

I know. On Sunday this system was downgraded because there was dying convection well removed from the center. If it look they way it does today back then, it would not of been downgraded.

This afternoon while the convection is still pulsing, it's more frequent and closer to the center. There is also more banding evident. Yeah there are outflow boundaries, but you can't expect everything to perfect, especially for a TD. It's definitely better organized than yesterday and probably little more than this morning. This is a TD again.

I agree thunder looks like a strong TD to me.

#547 Postby **deltadog03** » Wed Aug 17, 2005 1:46 pm

gfdl is all over the place....remember thats mostly what the GFS thinks...GFS loves to over deepen trofs

#548 Postby **storms in NC** » Wed Aug 17, 2005 1:46 pm

cycloneye wrote: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN (AL102005) ON 20050817 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050817 1800 050818 0600 050818 1800 050819 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.3N 56.4W 18.4N 58.4W 19.4N 60.4W 20.4N 62.4W
BAMM 17.3N 56.4W 18.3N 58.7W 19.6N 61.1W 20.9N 63.4W
A98E 17.3N 56.4W 18.3N 58.1W 19.4N 60.0W 20.9N 62.0W
LBAR 17.3N 56.4W 18.5N 58.1W 19.8N 60.0W 21.2N 61.9W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050819 1800 050820 1800 050821 1800 050822 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.2N 64.1W 21.9N 67.6W 22.0N 71.2W 22.4N 74.6W
BAMM 22.1N 65.4W 23.5N 69.0W 24.3N 71.9W 25.1N 74.6W
A98E 22.3N 64.5W 25.2N 70.2W 26.5N 74.7W 26.1N 76.9W
LBAR 22.4N 63.6W 24.0N 67.1W 24.5N 70.3W 24.9N 73.2W
SHIP 43KTS 52KTS 57KTS 62KTS
DSHP 43KTS 52KTS 57KTS 62KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.3N LONCUR = 56.4W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 16.3N LONM12 = 54.8W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 16.0N LONM24 = 53.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

18:00z Model Guidance.Starting to move more WNW and if that continues the northern leewards will not see the center of the system.

From this I would say some where on the east coast or out to sea

#549 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Aug 17, 2005 1:49 pm

storms in NC wrote:
cycloneye wrote: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN (AL102005) ON 20050817 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050817 1800 050818 0600 050818 1800 050819 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.3N 56.4W 18.4N 58.4W 19.4N 60.4W 20.4N 62.4W
BAMM 17.3N 56.4W 18.3N 58.7W 19.6N 61.1W 20.9N 63.4W
A98E 17.3N 56.4W 18.3N 58.1W 19.4N 60.0W 20.9N 62.0W
LBAR 17.3N 56.4W 18.5N 58.1W 19.8N 60.0W 21.2N 61.9W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050819 1800 050820 1800 050821 1800 050822 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.2N 64.1W 21.9N 67.6W 22.0N 71.2W 22.4N 74.6W
BAMM 22.1N 65.4W 23.5N 69.0W 24.3N 71.9W 25.1N 74.6W
A98E 22.3N 64.5W 25.2N 70.2W 26.5N 74.7W 26.1N 76.9W
LBAR 22.4N 63.6W 24.0N 67.1W 24.5N 70.3W 24.9N 73.2W
SHIP 43KTS 52KTS 57KTS 62KTS
DSHP 43KTS 52KTS 57KTS 62KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.3N LONCUR = 56.4W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 16.3N LONM12 = 54.8W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 16.0N LONM24 = 53.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

18:00z Model Guidance.Starting to move more WNW and if that continues the northern leewards will not see the center of the system.

From this I would say some where on the east coast or out to sea

what??? they are all showing close to florida

#550 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Aug 17, 2005 1:50 pm

When TD 10 is re-upgraded we will know the moment advisories are up because still everything say "TD 10."

jabber · #551 Postby **jabber** » Wed Aug 17, 2005 1:50 pm

From the Miami NWS

IN THE EXTENDED...TPC HAS NOT RULED OUT THE REMNANTS OF T.D. 10
MAKING A COMEBACK...POSSIBLY EVEN TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. PROBABLE PATH SUGGESTED BY TPC MIGHT BE
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO FRIDAY AND EAST OF THE BAHAMAS SUNDAY OR
MONDAY. TIME WILL TELL BUT SOUTH FLORIDIANS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON
THE REMNANTS OF T.D. 10 THROUGH THE WEEKEND JUST IN CASE. WILL NOT
FORECAST MUCH EFFECT ON SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER FROM THE REMNANTS OF
T.D. 10 AT THIS TIME.

gkrangers · #552 Postby **gkrangers** » Wed Aug 17, 2005 1:50 pm

Models are unchanged from the 12z run.

Don't assume anything yet.

#553 Postby **deltadog03** » Wed Aug 17, 2005 1:50 pm

actually that shows a bahama threat

du1st · #554 Postby **du1st** » Wed Aug 17, 2005 1:52 pm

Which means a cape candrival threat.

#555 Postby **storms in NC** » Wed Aug 17, 2005 1:52 pm

ivanhater wrote:
storms in NC wrote:
cycloneye wrote: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN (AL102005) ON 20050817 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050817 1800 050818 0600 050818 1800 050819 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.3N 56.4W 18.4N 58.4W 19.4N 60.4W 20.4N 62.4W
BAMM 17.3N 56.4W 18.3N 58.7W 19.6N 61.1W 20.9N 63.4W
A98E 17.3N 56.4W 18.3N 58.1W 19.4N 60.0W 20.9N 62.0W
LBAR 17.3N 56.4W 18.5N 58.1W 19.8N 60.0W 21.2N 61.9W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050819 1800 050820 1800 050821 1800 050822 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.2N 64.1W 21.9N 67.6W 22.0N 71.2W 22.4N 74.6W
BAMM 22.1N 65.4W 23.5N 69.0W 24.3N 71.9W 25.1N 74.6W
A98E 22.3N 64.5W 25.2N 70.2W 26.5N 74.7W 26.1N 76.9W
LBAR 22.4N 63.6W 24.0N 67.1W 24.5N 70.3W 24.9N 73.2W
SHIP 43KTS 52KTS 57KTS 62KTS
DSHP 43KTS 52KTS 57KTS 62KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.3N LONCUR = 56.4W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 16.3N LONM12 = 54.8W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 16.0N LONM24 = 53.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

18:00z Model Guidance.Starting to move more WNW and if that continues the northern leewards will not see the center of the system.

From this I would say some where on the east coast or out to sea

what??? they are all showing close to florida

When did Fla Move? thought it had a east coast?

#556 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Wed Aug 17, 2005 1:53 pm

They initialized the motion at 300? Is it really moving at 300? It appears to be more about 280/285 to me. Am I seeing this wrong you guys? I am using the Floater visible loop. Tell me what you see.

<RICKY>

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

#557 Postby **deltadog03** » Wed Aug 17, 2005 1:53 pm

never showed anything like up near ya....always showed florida or even FL straits

#558 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Aug 17, 2005 1:54 pm

well i dont see one that has "out to sea" so when you said that i assumed to meant further up the east coast

#559 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Aug 17, 2005 1:55 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:They initialized the motion at 300? Is it really moving at 300? It appears to be more about 280/285 to me. Am I seeing this wrong you guys? I am using the Floater visible loop. Tell me what you see.

<RICKY>

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

seriously....300 im just not seeing....i have no clue why they keep wanting to start it off that way

#560 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Wed Aug 17, 2005 1:57 pm

ivanhater wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:They initialized the motion at 300? Is it really moving at 300? It appears to be more about 280/285 to me. Am I seeing this wrong you guys? I am using the Floater visible loop. Tell me what you see.

<RICKY>

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

seriously....300 im just not seeing....i have no clue why they keep wanting to start it off that way

Thanks ivanhater. I thought I was going insane here.

<RICKY>

TD 10...Back Again

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