Big Severe Wx Outbreak around 10/18/07 in Plains

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Re: Big Severe Wx Outbreak around 10/18/07 in Plains

#541 Postby RL3AO » Thu Oct 18, 2007 10:15 pm

Butler County, Kentucky.

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#542 Postby RL3AO » Thu Oct 18, 2007 10:18 pm

AT 1057 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED A TORNADO.
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY.
THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BANCROFT...OR ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF OWOSSO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

Image
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#543 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 18, 2007 10:20 pm

Those are definitely mean supercells...
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#544 Postby HarlequinBoy » Thu Oct 18, 2007 10:23 pm

Yep, these look a lot more impressive than the storms from yesterday.
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#545 Postby RL3AO » Thu Oct 18, 2007 10:24 pm

The Butler Co., KY has developed a very impressive hook.
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Re: Big Severe Wx Outbreak around 10/18/07 in Plains

#546 Postby btangy » Thu Oct 18, 2007 10:29 pm

Impressive cell and rotation just N of Coldwater, MI. Definite hook apparent.

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#547 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 18, 2007 10:30 pm

Also a mean hook near Flint, MI - should miss just to the north
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#548 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 18, 2007 10:32 pm

SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 726
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND WESTERN ALABAMA
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
MIDDLE TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 1025 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTHEAST OF
NASHVILLE TENNESSEE TO 95 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF COLUMBUS
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 722...WW 724...WW 725...

DISCUSSION...LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS EXTENDS FROM WESTERN TN
INTO CENTRAL MS. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS THEY MOVE THROUGH MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO POSE A
RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.


...HART


SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 726
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND WESTERN ALABAMA
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
MIDDLE TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 1025 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTHEAST OF
NASHVILLE TENNESSEE TO 95 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF COLUMBUS
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 722...WW 724...WW 725...

DISCUSSION...LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS EXTENDS FROM WESTERN TN
INTO CENTRAL MS. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS THEY MOVE THROUGH MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO POSE A
RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.


...HART


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 190322
WOU6

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 726
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

TORNADO WATCH 726 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ALC009-033-043-049-057-059-063-065-071-073-075-077-079-083-089-
091-093-095-103-107-119-125-127-133-191000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0726.071019T0325Z-071019T1000Z/

AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BLOUNT COLBERT CULLMAN
DEKALB FAYETTE FRANKLIN
GREENE HALE JACKSON
JEFFERSON LAMAR LAUDERDALE
LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON
MARENGO MARION MARSHALL
MORGAN PICKENS SUMTER
TUSCALOOSA WALKER WINSTON


MSC007-017-019-025-049-057-069-075-079-081-087-089-095-099-101-
103-105-117-121-123-141-155-159-191000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0726.071019T0325Z-071019T1000Z/

MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATTALA CHICKASAW CHOCTAW
CLAY HINDS ITAWAMBA
KEMPER LAUDERDALE LEAKE
LEE LOWNDES MADISON
MONROE NESHOBA NEWTON
NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA PRENTISS
RANKIN SCOTT TISHOMINGO
WEBSTER WINSTON


TNC003-015-021-027-031-035-037-041-043-049-051-055-061-071-081-
087-099-101-103-111-117-119-127-133-135-137-141-147-149-159-165-
169-175-177-181-185-187-189-191000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0726.071019T0325Z-071019T1000Z/

TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BEDFORD CANNON CHEATHAM
CLAY COFFEE CUMBERLAND
DAVIDSON DEKALB DICKSON
FENTRESS FRANKLIN GILES
GRUNDY HARDIN HICKMAN
JACKSON LAWRENCE LEWIS
LINCOLN MACON MARSHALL
MAURY MOORE OVERTON
PERRY PICKETT PUTNAM
ROBERTSON RUTHERFORD SMITH
SUMNER TROUSDALE VAN BUREN
WARREN WAYNE WHITE
WILLIAMSON WILSON


ATTN...WFO...BMX...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW6
WW 726 TORNADO AL MS TN 190325Z - 191000Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
55NE BNA/NASHVILLE TN/ - 95SSW CBM/COLUMBUS MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /26ESE BWG - 14W MEI/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.

LAT...LON 36688490 32348804 32349009 36688705

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.


Watch 726 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
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Re:

#549 Postby RL3AO » Thu Oct 18, 2007 10:33 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Also a mean hook near Flint, MI - should miss just to the north

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FOR GENESEE
COUNTY...

AT 1125 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED A TORNADO.
THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR FLUSHING...OR ABOUT 10 MILES NORTHWEST
OF FLINT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.
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#550 Postby btangy » Thu Oct 18, 2007 10:33 pm

Very strong rotation and probable tornado NNW of Flint, MI.

Image

Image
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#551 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 18, 2007 10:39 pm

Just like the bad one there in 1957. It seems tonight is sure bringing back all these flashbacks...

What is the overnight prognosis (S Ontario, Ohio, E Kentucky, E Tennessee)?
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#552 Postby WindRunner » Thu Oct 18, 2007 10:40 pm

A prior LSR on that cell near Flint:

0231
2 SSE WILLIAMSTON
INGHAM MI
4266 8427
POSSIBLE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ON INTERSTATE 96 NEAR MILE MARKER 116 OVERTURNED A SIMI WITH PEOPLE TRAPPED AROUND 1031 PM. IT THEM MOVED NORTH NORTHEAST INTO WILLIAMSTON (GRR)

Another LSR at 0251z also confirmed a touchdown further north (2 mi SSE of Perry) with houses damaged.
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#553 Postby WindRunner » Thu Oct 18, 2007 10:43 pm

WUUS53 KIWX 190331
SVRIWX
INC003-033-113-190430-
/O.NEW.KIWX.SV.W.0165.071019T0330Z-071019T0430Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1130 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN ALLEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST INDIANA
DE KALB COUNTY IN NORTHEAST INDIANA
SOUTHEASTERN NOBLE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST INDIANA

* UNTIL 1230 AM EDT

* AT 1129 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED
11 MILES EAST OF TRI-LAKES...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
GARRETT...
AUBURN...
BUTLER...
HUNTERTOWN...
AVILLA...
WATERLOO...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE
OR NO WARNING. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A
PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN.

LAT...LON 4109 8525 4116 8535 4119 8535 4120 8532
4127 8531 4128 8536 4154 8516 4153 8480
4137 8480
TIME...MOT...LOC 0330Z 219DEG 46KT 4123 8526

$$

That cell has a nice hook and excellent velocity . . . yet no tornado warning. Considering it's bearing down on Auburn in DeKalb County (IN), I would hope they get out a TOR pronto.

EDIT: Image:

Image
Last edited by WindRunner on Thu Oct 18, 2007 10:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#554 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 18, 2007 10:44 pm

NWS Nashville issued a severe t-storm warning for its entire jurisdiction...
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Re: Big Severe Wx Outbreak around 10/18/07 in Plains

#556 Postby RL3AO » Thu Oct 18, 2007 10:45 pm

Heres something ya don't see everyday.

Code: Select all

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1019 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CHEATHAM COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ASHLAND CITY...
  WESTERN DAVIDSON COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NASHVILLE...
  DICKSON COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF DICKSON...
  HICKMAN COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CENTERVILLE...
  SOUTHEASTERN HUMPHREYS COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  LEWIS COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HOHENWALD...
  NORTHWESTERN MAURY COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  PERRY COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LINDEN...
  ROBERTSON COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SPRINGFIELD...
  NORTHWESTERN SUMNER COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  WAYNE COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF WAYNESBORO...
  WESTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1115 PM CDT
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Re:

#557 Postby RL3AO » Thu Oct 18, 2007 10:47 pm

WindRunner wrote:That cell has a nice hook and excellent velocity . . . yet no tornado warning. Considering it's bearing down on Auburn in DeKalb County (IN), I would hope they get out a TOR pronto.


TVS
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Re: Big Severe Wx Outbreak around 10/18/07 in Plains

#558 Postby WindRunner » Thu Oct 18, 2007 10:47 pm

RL3AO wrote:Heres something ya don't see everyday.

Code: Select all

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1019 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CHEATHAM COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ASHLAND CITY...
  WESTERN DAVIDSON COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NASHVILLE...
  DICKSON COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF DICKSON...
  HICKMAN COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CENTERVILLE...
  SOUTHEASTERN HUMPHREYS COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  LEWIS COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HOHENWALD...
  NORTHWESTERN MAURY COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  PERRY COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LINDEN...
  ROBERTSON COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SPRINGFIELD...
  NORTHWESTERN SUMNER COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  WAYNE COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF WAYNESBORO...
  WESTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1115 PM CDT


Just saw that . . . that's classic. 14 counties at once.
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#559 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 18, 2007 10:48 pm

That cell definitely warrants a tornado warning.

In terms of area covered, this outbreak is larger than the Super Outbreak even...
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Re: Big Severe Wx Outbreak around 10/18/07 in Plains

#560 Postby WindRunner » Thu Oct 18, 2007 10:49 pm



What are you looking at there? And you do know that Cincy has its own radar (KILN) if it's better for whatever storm you're looking at . . .
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