ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Emmett_Brown]

Will the reformation help or hinder the intensity of the storm?

Might help... may mean a few more hours over water. Also means less chance of crashing into Cuba this afternoon.

[Dean4Storms]

With this shallow/unorganized a system one living here in the Panhandle can't help but grow concerned that Fay tracks further west with a more gradual turn into the weakness.

All the models that turn her abruptly northward have at least a strong TS at that time from what I can tell.

[marciacubed]

Will the reformation help or hinder the intensity of the storm?

Might help... may mean a few more hours over water. Also means less chance of crashing into Cuba this afternoon.

That's exactly what I thought Thanks.

[Chigger_Lopez]

It does appear as if the entire mositure envelope of the stomr all moves distinctly NW in the last frames of this loop. I have a feeling that this will go east of the forecast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[carversteve]

What are the chances that Fay travels along the southern cuban coast over the warm water then turns north over the western part of cuba.. thank you for your comments.

[Noles2006]

It does appear as if the entire mositure envelope of the stomr all moves distinctly NW in the last frames of this loop. I have a feeling that this will go east of the forecast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

It appears to me that collapsing convection on the SE side of the system is giving the appearance of a NW turn...

[jlauderdal]

There are 31* waters south of Cuba.

Fay is probably doing a d-min simultaneously with residual land weakening.

The track is close enough to NHC trop points that we should expect gradual refire and reconvecting with a clip of Cuba followed by ramp up south of Cuba.


Got full tank of gas and extra 2 gallon ball (which leaks). Costco was just starting to get busy with people buying water etc. They were taking extra water pallets down from the high racks. My grill propane tank is full. I worry about low pressure and a full tank - but it probably doesn't matter. Tonight I'll eat the frozen sirloin and tomorrow the shrimp from the freezer. Got case of Gatorade and case of water gallons. Already had fresh pack D-cells.

High pressure obvious here with doldrum skies blue top to bottom with very few lazy drifting fair weather clouds. Hot sun.

i ate like a king after wilma, power was out for 11 days so what is a guy suppose to do but feed his family all the good stuff before it goes, my 6 year old loved watching me cook eggs on the grill, hurricanes are ok if you are prepared

[wxman57]

Will the reformation help or hinder the intensity of the storm?

Might help... may mean a few more hours over water. Also means less chance of crashing into Cuba this afternoon.

Compared to the predicted 65kt intensity on the south coast of Cuba, this definitely decreases the chances of it becoming a hurricane south of Cuba. I'm estimating it might make 50 kts before moving inland into south Cuba tomorrow, then maybe 35 kts as it emerges into the FL Straits. Considerably weaker than earlier forecasts.

[Sanibel]

I see a track currently on NHC trop points headed for a strengthening to allow it to survive a clip of Cabo Cruz, Cuba near Pilon and onto the hottest SST's in the Caribbean.

[GreenSky]

Will the reformation help or hinder the intensity of the storm?

Might help... may mean a few more hours over water. Also means less chance of crashing into Cuba this afternoon.

Compared to the predicted 65kt intensity on the south coast of Cuba, this definitely decreases the chances of it becoming a hurricane south of Cuba. I'm estimating it might make 50 kts before moving inland into south Cuba tomorrow, then maybe 35 kts as it emerges into the FL Straits. Considerably weaker than earlier forecasts.

But by relocating Southeast, Fay will avoid mountainous terrain of Southeast Cuba and will be over hot steamy water for a longer period of time...just by logic it would seem reasonable to assert that this relocation will help Fay's chances of intensifying more in the long term.

Thoughts, comments?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Dean, I must agree. I just might it very hard to believe the models are in such good agreement this far out. Seems might not be much left of Fay before long and could easily keep getting pushed a little more to the west. Therefore when the weakness does develop she might just catch the outer edge and like you said make more of a gradual turn to the north. Especially if the steerings currents weaken and she is still far enough to the south to not get pulled straight north.

[artist]

this confirms my thoughts of utterly chucking the GFDL

Is the GFDL the furthest east of the models?..sorry don't remeber.

Yes. Brushing SE FL, which looks unlikely at this time.

what about the euro?

[funster]

Will the reformation help or hinder the intensity of the storm?

Might help... may mean a few more hours over water. Also means less chance of crashing into Cuba this afternoon.

Compared to the predicted 65kt intensity on the south coast of Cuba, this definitely decreases the chances of it becoming a hurricane south of Cuba. I'm estimating it might make 50 kts before moving inland into south Cuba tomorrow, then maybe 35 kts as it emerges into the FL Straits. Considerably weaker than earlier forecasts.

I must have missed that part of the NHC's forecast where they said it would be a 65kt storm when it moved away from the DR.

Weird, also would have thought with more time over this very warm water would help it considerably. Good news for Cuba and Florida though if Fay remains as wimpy as you are predicting.

[Blown Away]

With the position relocation to the ESE from the 2pm advisory, is the forward motion less than 16 mph, I thought that was a little to fast.

[wxman57]

I plotted the 18Z models, minus the garbage BAM, NAM, and some experimental NOGAPS models.

GFDL is definitely out on its own. The two green tracks across the eastern FL peninsula are 18Z variations of the blue 12Z GFDL track over Miami.

[NDG]

GFDL is difinitely right bias, it happens every time with a recurving storm.

[Jason_B]

Don't want to jinx it but the situation is looking a lot better from what the consensus was yesterday. A more eastern track into the peninsula means a much weaker storm with beneficial rains and the northern Gulf coast is spared from a big hurricane. Everybody west of Pensacola can breathe a sigh of relief now.

[srainhoutx]

For our friends in the Lower Keys...

Date of Record: August 16, 2008





In preparation for Tropical Storm Fay, the City of Key West will open its Emergency Operations Center at a Level 2 activation status at 5 p.m. today, Saturday August 16, 2008.

From that point on until the storm has passed or is no longer a threat to the area, the EOC will be manned with city personnel and the rumor control hotline will be open for receiving calls. The number in the Key West EOC for citizens to call with questions about the storm or local hurricane preparedness is 305-809-1108.



[TS Fay EOC activation]

http://www.keywestcity.com/egov/docs/1218909263278.htm

[Bgator]

Does anyone think that this may turn out to be a storm like Ernesto? Miami media hyped it up so much, and we got nothing more than a rain storm, as it couldnt get uts act together. Im not saying to back down and forget about Fay, but anyone think its a possibility?

P.S.: Here in Miami my local publix is packed, and almost out of water already.

[Lowpressure]

WXMAN57, thanks for the work on the model graphic- good job.