CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

I see a small eye at 14.3 N, 58.8 W. Zoom in if it helps

its possible it shows up on the radar loop i have up there..

on the last few frames.. the banding on radar seems to be improving ..

[Wx_Warrior]

Yep...5-7 days out I remember Max on tv with that dang cone!

[Weatherfreak14]

yea on the IR it seems a big burst of convection starting. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

[Ivanhater]

It's trying to make a run for the border...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156l.gif

Better have a greencard!

[vaffie]

At 156 hours just before landfall at the Texas/Mexico border, the 594 mb high over the southeast moves substantially to the east and weakens. What a disaster that could be.
Compare:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_156l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_150l.gif

[jhamps10]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

I see a small eye at 14.3 N, 58.8 W. Zoom in if it helps

I'm seeing it too. this thing is getting better organized here, should see some strengthening overnight.

[Wx_Warrior]

One wild ride...even next week...I am thinking models really dont know much at all until next week!

[Stormcenter]

I know it's still very early and a lot can still change but it looks like Dean has
plans on visiting either the upper Mexico or lower coastline of Texas in less than a week
per the models. If it were Sunday night and not Thursday I would say it was a slam dunk
but because it's not then I'm just cautiously optimistic.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I know it's still very early and a lot can still change but it looks like Dean has
plans on visiting either the upper Mexico or lower coastline of Texas in less than a week
per the models. If it were Sunday night and not Thursday I would say it was a slam dunk
but because it's not then I'm just cautiously optimistic.

I am leaning more toward a central TX storm. I do not really see this being a Mexico hit. Assuming a slightly more northward track than this 00z run, I think the weakness will have an influence on the direction once near the Yucatan.

[StormWarning1]

156 hrs... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156l.gif

Seems to have a slight bit more northward momentum. This run might end up closer to Browsville.

500mb... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_156l.gif

**This is also north of the 18z run at this point**

Might want to shift from 'Western North Atlantic' region to 'North America' for better resolution.

[vaffie]

It's bad news. If the GFS is moving north, the other models will too. They were clustered around Tampico/Brownsville--now they'll cluster further north--and it's the consensus that matters more than the GFS.

[cpdaman]

well a weaker storm in the long term (days 3 and out) is possible in my mind (poss. strengthening NOW)

i think with the forward speed increased (now 25 mph= 600 miles a day) and a stubborn uncertain ULL east of FL (now) that there is a possibility for more shear and interaction with the ULL at a longitude further east than earlier forecast.

with the smaller size of the storm , intensity changes are potentially quicker to occur, and the storm will be more suseptable to these influences (because of this size)

conclusion still lots of questions based on track and strength IMO

[HouTXmetro]

So we have a northward trend after all.. most models moved right today.

[Extremeweatherguy]

My NCEP models page just froze and will not reload. Is anyone else able to finish the run?

[brunota2003]

My NCEP models page just froze and will not reload. Is anyone else able to finish the run?

Nope, I cannot access it for some reason.

[Brent]

My NCEP models page just froze and will not reload. Is anyone else able to finish the run?

NO!

Of course it does this now on probably the landfall frame... ugh.

[TTheriot1975]

What is the GFDL saying right now? UKMET?

[Stratosphere747]

I used the Allen analogy back when the first few runs were being done on Dean. I had no idea this far into its life that it would still be showing this possibility.

[Category6]

Maybe I'm getting dizzy from looking at the storm most of the evening
but it does it seem to be taking a slight WNW wobble?

[canetracker]

mine did too.