ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Air Force Met]

All -removed- aside, i certainly hope this storm hits where Edouord hit. In the middle of nowhere, causing minimal damage to life and property.

NO YOU DON'T, Do you realize if this hit where Eduard hit as a Cat 3 or Higher Houston and Galveston would be DEVASTED? Not to mention terible surger into Beamont/PA and all along the SW Lousiana coast.

Houston and Galveston would most certainly not be devastated by Gustav if he hit where Edouard did. The area would get some damage...especially on the east side...but devastated? Not even close. Winds would be blowing offshore. They are much weaker on the west side....and it would be unlikely that most of the HOU-GLS area would even see hurricane force winds (sustained). There would be power problems, trees down. Not a lot of damage over Houston proper (more to the east)...very little in the way of flooding in the area since we would get less than 6-8 inches of rain on the east side of town...and less than 3 inches on the west.

Some damage? Yes. Devestation? No.

[Air Force Met]

Can any of you pro guys or amateurs out there post a image to where Gustav may be by Monday?

I keep hearing about this westward bend that the models are picking up due to a high pressure system to its north...

Apperently this bend will occur sometime on Monday.

Thanks all!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

[duris]

Too bad there's not an ex-wife filter we can install on here. You know, like I have on my brain when my ex says "the sky is not blue" or "the world is too flat," like those who insist on refuting direct, scientific evidence. And as for people I disagree with, let's hope they get their wish and they get to see what it's like to experience something like Katrina and see if they wish that on anyone again. Feel free to come stay at my house when I evacuate.

Seriously, I appreciate the good info here and would suggest that everyone learn to use the "foe" feature cuz it's your friend. Be safe everyone.

[shelby]

All -removed- aside, i certainly hope this storm hits where Edouord hit. In the middle of nowhere, causing minimal damage to life and property.

NO YOU DON'T, Do you realize if this hit where Eduard hit as a Cat 3 or Higher Houston and Galveston would be DEVASTED? Not to mention terible surger into Beamont/PA and all along the SW Lousiana coast.

Houston and Galveston would most certainly not be devastated by Gustav if he hit where Edouard did. The area would get some damage...especially on the east side...but devastated? Not even close. Winds would be blowing offshore. They are much weaker on the west side....and it would be unlikely that most of the HOU-GLS area would even see hurricane force winds (sustained). There would be power problems, trees down. Not a lot of damage over Houston proper (more to the east)...very little in the way of flooding in the area since we would get less than 6-8 inches of rain on the east side of town...and less than 3 inches on the west.

Some damage? Yes. Devestation? No.

Thanks. No offense to the poster but it is a little out there.

[Sean in New Orleans]

They have moved UP the evacuation plans in SE LA. I think you all will find this interesting: Starting tomorrow, some of the sick and elderly will begin to be evacuated. Apparently, Louisiana is planning on a very extensive and time consuming evacuation. Louisiana is planning on a double contraflow at the same time---for the New Orleans area AND for SW and SCentral Louisiana. We are talking about almost 3 million people driving N. on all interstates in Louisiana on both sides by Sunday. That is unprecedented, but, as Gov. Jindal stated, it is part of what they are planning as a real possiblity.

[southerngale]

All -removed- aside, i certainly hope this storm hits where Edouord hit. In the middle of nowhere, causing minimal damage to life and property.

Uh, we're not in the middle of nowhere. The Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange area (Golden Triangle) certainly isn't as big as Houston, but hardly open prairie either - 385,000+ population

You're right about the minimal damage, though, because Edouard wasn't that impressive.

[pablolopez26]

Honestly though i cant wait to see what the early morning model runs say about Gustavs track!

[pablolopez26]

Uh, we're not in the middle of nowhere. The Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange area (Golden Triangle) certainly isn't as big as Houston, but hardly open prairie either - 385,000+ population

You're right about the minimal damage, though, because Edouard wasn't that impressive.

Oh no, i didnt mean it like that. Any hit by any hurricane or storm is bad. Anywhere.

But what i meant is that TS Edouard coulda been ALOT worse than what it was.

Whatever happens, i hope that Houston or Beumont is on the east end of whatever is coming this way, not on the west end.

[Texashawk]

Uh, we're not in the middle of nowhere. The Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange area (Golden Triangle) certainly isn't as big as Houston, but hardly open prairie either - 385,000+ population

You're right about the minimal damage, though, because Edouard wasn't that impressive.

Oh no, i didnt mean it like that. Any hit by any hurricane or storm is bad. Anywhere.

But what i meant is that TS Edouard coulda been ALOT worse than what it was.

Whatever happens, i hope that Houston or Beumont is on the east end of whatever is coming this way, not on the west end.

No, you don't... the east side of a storm is generally the more dangerous one, with more wind and rain.

[Cape Verde]

NO YOU DON'T, Do you realize if this hit where Eduard hit as a Cat 3 or Higher Houston and Galveston would be DEVASTED?

I thought Eduord (sp) made landfall on some Big Bend State Park or something with minimal squalls and activity in the Houston suburban areas.

Well, Big Bend is nowhere near the coast, probably 650 miles from Houston.

[HouTXmetro]

Maybe Devasted was to extreme of a word. My point is that a strong Hurricane with heading of Eduoard would not be good for Houston. The coast is heavily populated and the Eastern/NE Suburbs would take a good amount of Damage. Not too mention Beaumont and Port Arthor would take the Brunt of the storm.

Do we have a new center fix? I can't tell if the center has moved back North of the Island. It appears that way to me.

[southerngale]

Local Met just forcasted landfall sw la/se tx.

which one??!!

Channel 6 Met at 10:00.

I watched too. What I heard was him saying he was concerned for our area, but he didn't pinpoint a landfall. In fact, he mentioned Freeport to NOLA, if I recall correctly.

[ColdFusion]

Next package will be interesting as the GFS just swung way EAST (Mobile, AL). I guess we'll just have to evacuate the entire gulf coast.

[funster]

If there is no trough to turn Gustav north than why won't it just barrel into central Texas? Seems they keep shifting the track west as each day passes.

[txag2005]

Outside of a hit in sparsely populated areas on the South Texas coast, any hit will be devastating to specific communities. Of course a Freeport or Galveston hit would be devastating to us in the Houston area, but hits to the north and east would be devastating to those along the TX/LA border (Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange). No sense in fighting, rather lets ensure we keep our prayers with whoever this storm affects.

[Weatherfreak000]

Words to the...."Wise", from the NHC themselves...


"IT IS SIMPLY
IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS TIME TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN GUSTAV
WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL."

[shelby]

Maybe Devasted was to extreme of a word. My point is that a strong Hurricane with heading of Eduoard would not be good for Houston. The coast is heavily populated and the Eastern/NE Suburbs would take a good amount of Damage. Not too mention Beaumont and Port Arthor would take the Brunt of the storm.

Do we have a new center fix? I can't tell if the center has moved back North of the Island. It appears that way to me.

No offense. But that that still doesn't make sense. If a strong cane came in on Eduardo's path, how would it effect the Eastern and NE suburbs. If I remember right, it made landfall below Corpus. IMO - it would be a little south to cause what you saying but I never say never. JMO

[southerngale]

Maybe Devasted was to extreme of a word. My point is that a strong Hurricane with heading of Eduoard would not be good for Houston. The coast is heavily populated and the Eastern/NE Suburbs would take a good amount of Damage. Not too mention Beaumont and Port Arthor would take the Brunt of the storm.

Do we have a new center fix? I can't tell if the center has moved back North of the Island. It appears that way to me.

No offense. But that that still doesn't make sense. If a strong cane came in on Eduardo's path, how would it effect the Eastern and NE suburbs. If I remember right, it made landfall below Corpus. IMO - it would be a little south to cause what you saying but I never say never. JMO

You must be thinking of Dolly, which did hit down there. Edouard hit Beaumont/Port Arthur.

[RainWind]

Recon is getting close! I wonder if Gus will be found as a hurricane, you just never know! RW

[dwg71]

im sure its just movement of convection, but energy seems to be moving more northerly..will have to watch..