ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[tolakram]

[SeGaBob]

Is that closer to the coast here than 12Z?

[tolakram]

Just misses landfall.

[tolakram]

[wxman57]

I'm plotting the 18Z GFS over the 12Z EC and the timing up to offshore SC at 18Z Saturday is very close. GFS has the center about 30 miles offshore while the EC is about 100 miles offshore.

[stormlover2013]

We will see 2 more days of shift west!!! Just my gut feeling, I hope it doesn't happen but I think it will

[adam0983]

I think the trend west isn't finished yet any chance the storm tracks up the spine of the state Florida very scary stuff now.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[xironman]

The GFS is flat with the mid-west trough like the 12z Euro

[SeminoleWind]

That run puts it up the east coast of Florida and a lot of high wind gusts all through south and central Florida

[Ken711]

Is this run just slightly east of the Outer Banks from the 12z?

[p1nheadlarry]

Hurricane conditions could still be felt near the coast with this run, it keeps creeping closer. This is with dropsonde data as well? I've already got the gasoline ready.

[chaser1]

The latest GFS, UKMET, NAM, and FIM appear to be in collusion to ruin my vacation.. What a difference 12 hours makes.

9 hours till the EURO boys... who's staying up?

I'll be here... I'm in full storm-tracking mode now.

Up watching the later GFS, NAM, and EURO model updates BIG TIME!!! (anyone happen to have the link for the new Double Secret Malaysian and Taipa Atlantic cyclone models... kidding )

[meriland23]

Woah there GFS...woah. alright I'm officially in super alert mode. I did not expect that.

[Blinhart]

And this is without the Gulftream IV dropsondes inputted into the model, we will see in the next 12 to 24 hours what all the new information does to the models.

I'm thinking of a trend much further West before the full out North bend .

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/danleonard_wx/status/783063986170454016

[chaser1]

I think the trend west isn't finished yet any chance the storm tracks up the spine of the state Florida very scary stuff now.

Anything is possible, though I never projected heights strong enough to drive Matthew very much inland or even WNW once reaching 25N. Just goes to show, you just never quite know with these fluid situations. Whether the models continue to nudge even more westward, I fully expect some runs to job east as well. All that jockeying around though will pretty much stop I think, just as soon as Matthew round's the corner and reorganizes from its one day land sabatical over Haiti. Boy, a lot 2-3 day track implications will be dependant on wobbles leading up to moving over E. Cuba, threading the needle between the islands, or moving over E. Haiti.