ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Scorpion]

I was concerned this would blow up and aim for the upper Texas coast but it appears like a strong TS/weak 1 hit around Brownsville. Great news as gas prices will no longer be going up.

[gatorcane]

gatorcane, I see little dry air intrusion, that not the problem is just the system hasn't wrapped up very well just yet...remember this may not have had a LLC about 9hrs ago, give this another 12hrs and if it still looks like this then you may well have a good point.

I want to say she is almost opening up into a strong wave with an attached low but I know the board will rip me

I'm glad we are seeing Dolly not strengthen. I'm beginning to wonder if she will ever reach Hurricane status. Note several respected models never showed her as reaching hurricane status. Then again several of them did.

[JonathanBelles]

Im pretty sure it is not dry air...it is still in the recovery stage from being on the Yucatan.

[HurricaneRobert]

I think it's too sprawled out and will not reach moderate Cat 1 strength. It will be lucky to reach Cat 1 at all IMO.

It just looks too much like a bow echo and not a storm.

I think so too. It will be like a more-powerful Frances.

[KWT]

No WmE I meant even if we see no strengthening in the next 18hrs...the 24hrs after that is still enough time to get this upto that sort of strength.

Also some people say its disorganised...its not it just lacks convection, look at the banding it has!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rgb-l.jpg

If it gets a big burst this will get going pretty quickly, the key is when that burst actually happens. I've seen hurricane with worse banding then that

[Blown Away]

I guess it's just me, but I'm not that impressed w/ Dolly, she looks better than she has as an invest, but she is void of convection on the SE quad. I guess Dolly will intensify when she slows down a little.

[Wx_Warrior]

Dolly better get on stage on crank up a classic hit!!! She's running out of time. IMHO, I think she'll climb to Cat 1 maybe, if she's lucky, a Cat 2...Hopefully this won't discourage storm2k'ers from posting on her.

[jhamps10]

gatorcane, I see little dry air intrusion, that not the problem is just the system hasn't wrapped up very well just yet...remember this may not have had a LLC about 9hrs ago, give this another 12hrs and if it still looks like this then you may well have a good point.

I want to say she is almost opening up into a strong wave with an attached low but I know the board will rip me

I'm glad we are seeing Dolly not strengthen. I'm beginning to wonder if she will ever reach Hurricane status. Note several respected models never showed her as reaching hurricane status.

you'll get ripped from a lot of folks just for saying that

anyway your right, I'm sick and tired of watching this annoying storm not make up it's mind on anything. who knows come midnight it will look like a hurricane forming. I just wish it would either develop well or just die off.

[Normandy]

gatorcane, I see little dry air intrusion, that not the problem is just the system hasn't wrapped up very well just yet...remember this may not have had a LLC about 9hrs ago, give this another 12hrs and if it still looks like this then you may well have a good point.

I want to say she is almost opening up into a strong wave with an attached low but I know the board will rip me

I'm glad we are seeing Dolly not strengthen. I'm beginning to wonder if she will ever reach Hurricane status. Note several respected models never showed her as reaching hurricane status. Then again several of them did.

Strong tropical wave? Not trying to rip you but Dolly is clearly a healthy Tropical Storm. Fairly evident low level circulation and a large one at that.

[Duddy]

I expect after midnight it will burst on the Northeast side. IF it can wrap it up, then we will be looking at Hurricane Dolly by the 2PM advisory tomorrow.

Worst case scenerio is that it pulls a Wilma and stregnthens from a TS to a Cat 3 in under 20 hours. It will be too late for people to evacuate and there will be massive devestation.

['CaneFreak]

Dolly continues to struggle today. Great news for those in the Western GOM. Latest SAT pic shows her center seems to be almost fully exposed on the East side as dry air is continuing to inhibit her development. Convection is also waning some at least the coverage of cold cloud tops is decreasing as we hit DMIN.

Let's hope this all continues. If she can only move West on the left side of the guidance envelope it would be even better news as she will be inland in Mexico in less than 24 hours at her current speed.

Dude, I have NOOOOOOO idea what you are talking about. East side is weak now because its recovering from Yucatan. THERE IS NO DRY AIR. I need proof OTHER THAN no convection on the east side that this thing is encountering dry air. Sorry. Its not happening. The inner core has definitely started to take shape which was one of the limiting factors to development at 11 am advisory time.

[jasons2k]

I think too many people are buying into every whim of every satellite frame or wobble.

Development for a TC is rarely a straight line "upward"

IMO Dolly is slowly getting her act together and will slow down in forward speed tomorrow making a lot of poeple question their LF forecasts.

[gatorcane]

gatorcane, I see little dry air intrusion, that not the problem is just the system hasn't wrapped up very well just yet...remember this may not have had a LLC about 9hrs ago, give this another 12hrs and if it still looks like this then you may well have a good point.

I want to say she is almost opening up into a strong wave with an attached low but I know the board will rip me

I'm glad we are seeing Dolly not strengthen. I'm beginning to wonder if she will ever reach Hurricane status. Note several respected models never showed her as reaching hurricane status. Then again several of them did.

Strong tropical wave? Not trying to rip you but Dolly is clearly a healthy Tropical Storm. Fairly evident low level circulation and a large one at that.

Well strong tropical wave is a bit of a stretch -- still she is nowhere near Hurricane status yet. Things can change though.

[RL3AO]

This isn't a tropical wave.

['CaneFreak]

I think it's too sprawled out and will not reach moderate Cat 1 strength. It will be lucky to reach Cat 1 at all IMO.

It just looks too much like a bow echo and not a storm.

I expect after midnight it will burst on the Northeast side. IF it can wrap it up, then we will be looking at Hurricane Dolly by the 2PM advisory tomorrow.

Worst case scenerio is that it pulls a Wilma and stregnthens from a TS to a Cat 3 in under 20 hours. It will be too late for people to evacuate and there will be massive devestation.

Which one is it? No hurricane at all or hurricane tomorrow?

[Wx_Warrior]

Does the latest image show the center more west?

[Swimdude]

Let us remember that the NHC itself is only forecasting a 10 kt increase in strength in the next 8 hours or so. (From the 11 a.m. advisory). We shouldn't expect rapid intensification in the middle of July, like we saw with Rita, Katrina, etc...

[gatorcane]

It may not be organizing quickly this afternoon but still note tonight and into tomorrowcould be a different story no doubt. The env conditions should become even better as time goes on.

[wx247]

By the way, regarding the dry air/no dry air argument...

I posed the question to Derek. Here was his reply:

not dry air.. its core is just disrupted after impacting the Yucatan

that may take another 12 hours to fully recover

also... the intensification is not expected to fully begin until tomorrow

['CaneFreak]

Let us remember that the NHC itself is only forecasting a 10 kt increase in strength in the next 8 hours or so. (From the 11 a.m. advisory). We shouldn't expect rapid intensification in the middle of July, like we saw with Rita, Katrina, etc...

So the fact that it is the middle of July is a limiting factor for rapid intensification? I think not. Look at Dennis in 2005. It was mid-July. Went from a cat 2 to a 4 in several hours.