ATL: DORIAN - Models

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/1168134984609280003

[SFLcane]

06z Euro is even closer to FL coast what 30-40 miles from that graphic?

[hohnywx]

06Z EURO:

https://i.imgur.com/M1Sc6Vz.png


00Z EURO:

https://i.imgur.com/uxRdRYX.png

Definitely looks closer...yikes

[kevin]

That's a significant shift West compared to 00z. A lot of people have been saying this for a while, but one more of those shifts and we could be looking at a landfall. The 12z runs will be nailbiting.

[gatorcane]

00z UKMET ensembles:

Yes they shifted east some but many through Florida

Bumping to new page. Do they run these at 06Z?

[Siker]

00z UKMET ensembles:
https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/2019/2019090100/esrl.eps.ukmo.hit.05L.2019.168.png

Yes they shifted east some but many through Florida

Bumping to new page. Do they run these at 06Z?

Yeah they do but it takes awhile. Probably come out around 9:30est.

[gatorcane]

06 ICON is slightly west of 00Z and more NE of yesterday’s runs:

[DelrayDude]

06 ICON is slightly west of 00Z and more NE of yesterday’s runs:

https://i.postimg.cc/LsfPMPbz/icon-mslp-wind-seus-19.png

What direction is icon going at this point? Is it stalling?

[Shell Mound]

06Z ICON shows landfall near Stuart, FL

[NDG]

Another just 4 hours of sleep last night, waking up to not so great news

According to the latest 06 Euro, hurricane force wind gusts for the Treasure Coast Tuesday late morning and early afternoon.

[gatorcane]

Looks like 60mph gusts for Eastern/coastal Palm Beach.

[Tailspin]

[HurricaneFrances04]

That is a noticeable enough shift by the 6Z Euro. The 0Z had the 60 mph gusts offshore of Palm Beach.

20 to 30 miles isn't a big difference 36 hours out, but it can mean very different conditions.

[chris_fit]

Just a reminder, this thing is forecast to stall out for 1.5+ days on the Bahamas.... that would be 72 hours from now - Forecast error at 72 hours is over 100 miles..... Just Sayin'

[Blown Away]

12z TVCN shifted W again. Also the Clipper went from recurve to NW landfall, just says climatology favors a landfall over recurve now.

[kevin]

I'm hoping for an OTS track, but I'm getting a bit nervous tbh. Can't imagine what people in the region and officials are going through right now, still so much uncertainty at this point about the possibility of a landfall. No matter what happens, I think this will be a storm I and most other people on this forum will remember for quite a few years, because of its erratic behavior and constant windshield wiping by models, especially a few days ago.

[NDG]

06z Euro loop, shows hurricane force winds in gusts along the coast from Jupiter on north.

[seahawkjd]

What does the 6Z Euro do in relation to NC?

[drewschmaltz]

I'm hoping for an OTS track, but I'm getting a bit nervous tbh. Can't imagine what people in the region and officials are going through right now, still so much uncertainty at this point about the possibility of a landfall. No matter what happens, I think this will be a storm I and most other people on this forum will remember for quite a few years, because of its erratic behavior and constant windshield wiping by models, especially a few days ago.

Hate to be the sensitive guy in the group but... My friends in Hope Town Bahamas would be confused by "OTS". The next 48 hours will change their lives. And have the models really moved that much? Or, is the downstream effect just greater because of the shape of the US coastline VS forecasted track.?

[Blown Away]

https://i.imgur.com/cJAJHPC.png?1

Hmmm, 06z Euro goes inland over GA/SC vs sharp turn, usually means sensing higher pressure.