ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[marciacubed]

any thoughts on 5pm update track....similar to 11am update or enough of a shift to put a new area in the cone and take some area out?

I think it will continue to shift to the right.
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[Extremeweatherguy]

Fay looks to be trying to get her act together this evening. As long as she stays offshore Cuba, I see no reason why this should not steadily strengthen. Though perhaps slightly less likely, I still think it is very possible that this becomes a hurricane before crossing Cuba late Sunday into early Monday.

[PTPatrick]

Ok know its the NAM....BUT...its significant because it has been in the Bahamas and Palm beach so long....42 hour position on the 18z is Key west

[Noles2006]

If you had to draw a path for a storm to be destroyed by land it would not be much different than the path Fay is taking. East to west through PR and Hispanola and IMO looks to be moving down the spine of Cuba, and Cuba is only about 60 miles wide from N/S.

I disagree... I don't think it's going to catch as much of Cuba as you're currently thinking...

[Sanibel]

If you had to draw a path for a storm to be destroyed by land it would not be much different than the path Fay is taking. East to west through PR and Hispanola and IMO looks to be moving down the spine of Cuba, and Cuba is only about 60 miles wide from N/S.

I agree, but conditions are good for supporting a land-weakened storm because of no shear etc. Also, recovery-once-back-over-water conditions are excellent as well.

[DESTRUCTION5]

any thoughts on 5pm update track....similar to 11am update or enough of a shift to put a new area in the cone and take some area out?

GFDL should be discounted due to poor initialization (as Derek said), so if anything, maybe a nudge back left (west).

So much for the 12z's being better with more data ....

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

If you had to draw a path for a storm to be destroyed by land it would not be much different than the path Fay is taking. East to west through PR and Hispanola and IMO looks to be moving down the spine of Cuba, and Cuba is only about 60 miles wide from N/S.

According to the last 2 center fixes by recon the center is WELL south of Cuba. If you want to disagree with recon and say the center is going over cuba then be my guest but facts say other wise!

[capepoint]

Sticking with my gut feeling from yesterday.....I still think this is a carolina cruiser. (Cruises along NC sothern outer banks)

In the nearer term..cuts across eastern cuba, then to southern fla exiting into atl no further n than palm beach area, follows gulf stream up to NC, clips or cruises just off cape fear, passes over or very close to cape lookout,ocracoke, and cape hatteras, and heades offshore towards NE.

I still think NO GOM or west FLA run.

I think that the mod shift to the west was a typical swing as the mods shift back and forth before settling down on a course. They always do that when running the first few runs on a new circulation. They will continue east and then settle back west to a line similar to what ive outlined. Just looking at vis sat shows a pretty strong west to east flow across GOM. Since I have no formal weather training, I can get away with saying that I just dont see this turning north and remaining on a northern course bucking that flow without being pushed northeast. Besides, I have no money on this, so if I'm wrong...oh well.

As far as intensity, no more than low cat 1/strong TS at fla landfall, and no more than cat 1 when reaches NC coast.

.... Disclaimer...As before, I have nothing to base this reasoning on, other than a lifetime of fascination and watching hurricanes, studying hurricane history, a sailors feel for weather, and looking at countless models and sat pics today without having any idea of what I'm really seeing. If you accept my forcast as gospel, then you might deserve to die, so you better listen to the nat hurricane center folks that DO have a clue. (is that a good enough disclaimer?)

[NDG]

Ok know its the NAM....BUT...its significant because it has been in the Bahamas and Palm beach so long....42 hour position on the 18z is Key west

Oh wow, I am impressed, the NAM has finally joined the model consensus, lol.

[ronjon]

any thoughts on 5pm update track....similar to 11am update or enough of a shift to put a new area in the cone and take some area out?

GFDL should be discounted due to poor initialization (as Derek said), so if anything, maybe a nudge back left (west).

So much for the 12z's being better with more data ....

I think the track will remain unchanged largely due to the consistent runs of GFS at 06Z and 12Z - which is exactly where the 11 am track is.

[Noles2006]

I do not see any reason to shift from the last track put out by the NHC...

[Blown Away]

any thoughts on 5pm update track....similar to 11am update or enough of a shift to put a new area in the cone and take some area out?

GFDL should be discounted due to poor initialization (as Derek said), so if anything, maybe a nudge back left (west).

At 5pm a slight E shift with landfall through Keys into Marco Island. I base it on the slight E relocation of the LLC and a more WNW movement at a slower speed, IMO.

[Sanibel]

I'm not sure on the right tick. We'll know in a few hours. I'm just saying I'm seeing subtle signs of it possibly occurring. (The convection center is moving more WNW and up Cuba)

[TCmet]

any thoughts on 5pm update track....similar to 11am update or enough of a shift to put a new area in the cone and take some area out?

GFDL should be discounted due to poor initialization (as Derek said), so if anything, maybe a nudge back left (west).

So much for the 12z's being better with more data ....

you got me.

but in general, the suite of models should be better after the 00Z run... so, the 11pm advisory. including the ingest of the latest recon data (the first center passes).

[HURAKAN]

[DESTRUCTION5]

any thoughts on 5pm update track....similar to 11am update or enough of a shift to put a new area in the cone and take some area out?

GFDL should be discounted due to poor initialization (as Derek said), so if anything, maybe a nudge back left (west).

At 5pm a slight E shift with landfall through Keys into Marco Island. I base it on the slight E relocation of the LLC and a more WNW movement at a slower speed, IMO.

I agree..Just becaue i have noticed the NHC seems to LOVE the GFDL and it has some Euro support too...

[ronjon]

Wxman57, due you have a motion estimate over the last several hours?

[cycloneye]

any thoughts on 5pm update track....similar to 11am update or enough of a shift to put a new area in the cone and take some area out?

GFDL should be discounted due to poor initialization (as Derek said), so if anything, maybe a nudge back left (west).

At 5pm a slight E shift with landfall through Keys into Marco Island. I base it on the slight E relocation of the LLC and a more WNW movement at a slower speed, IMO.

North of due west.

[Bocadude85]

so I should be safe here on the se coast of fl?

[Steve]

>>so I should be safe here on the se coast of fl?

Not until the threat officially passes. I don't think anyone can really answer that question but time itself.

Steve