Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[timmeister]

That's some cold air! 13-14 degrees in Pensacola, Florida on Saturday morning!

[TheStormExpert]

That's some cold air! 13-14 degrees in Pensacola, Florida on Saturday morning!

That's a full week from this Saturday. I also would not buy into it one bit cause the GFS and Canadian models have crying wolf(extreme cold) all winter long so far for the Deep South and Florida and it has not happened yet. The Teleconnections are still unfavorable as they have basically been all winter so far and look to stay that way through at least the next 2 weeks.

[hurricanehunter69]

I think I'm actually starting to get a bit of a spine tingle! 3 runs in a row now...NICE! Check this out... http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... M&ps=model

[BigB0882]

I think I'm actually starting to get a bit of a spine tingle! 3 runs in a row now...NICE! Check this out... http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... M&ps=model

Does that precip come before the freezing line gets to us because I don't see anything on the snow depth maps for the 18z GFS.

[Hammy]

I'm pretty much giving up at this point, the snow here has once again shown up three runs and then pushed back to 300+ hours and it's been doing this since November.

[hurricanehunter69]

I think I'm actually starting to get a bit of a spine tingle! 3 runs in a row now...NICE! Check this out... http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... M&ps=model

Does that precip come before the freezing line gets to us because I don't see anything on the snow depth maps for the 18z GFS.

The damned 18Z dropped it...imagine that?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I'm pretty much giving up at this point, the snow here has once again shown up three runs and then pushed back to 300+ hours and it's been doing this since November.

Yep thats our big "pattern change". Models show a chance 7or so days out for a run or two, drops it for a couple runs, then brings it back in the 12 -14 day timeframe just to tease everybody, then loses it altogether and nobody gets cold. Rinse and repeat all winter long

[SeGaBob]

I'm not surprised it got dropped either. If it's not going to snow then it needs to warm up.

The only reason i like winter is for that small chance of snow. 75 degrees and low humidity would be nice if it won't snow.

[BigB0882]

The 18z GFS shows snow breaking out all along the TX coast and moving over into Louisiana. It is only at 384 hours from now. Surely we can bank on it?

[LaBreeze]

The 18z GFS shows snow breaking out all along the TX coast and moving over into Louisiana. It is only at 384 hours from now. Surely we can bank on it?

I'm not counting on this happening - it will probably be dropped soon.

[Hammy]

Canadian showed snow in Georgia on 00z which was shown by GFS on 12z, but 12z CMC longer showing it.

[SeGaBob]

I wonder how reliable this is...

06Z GFS Total Snowfall 150 hours.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015020106&fh=156&xpos=0&ypos=217.77778354691887


GFS has been quite consistent on winter weather this Friday, though this is the most it's shown so far.

[northjaxpro]

Well, the GFS has been depicting a phasing of northern stream and southern stream energy to occur just off the SE U.S. Coast for the past several days. The GFS overall does not have a good track record as we know this winter season. HOWEVER, the GFS was correct in depicting our light snow event 120 hours out here in Jacksonville, which occured on January 8, as you are well aware of SeGaBob. So, I definitely would not totally discount what GFS is showing for this Friday, since we are in that 5 day range now.

[BigB0882]

The GFS also was better at predicting snowfall totals with the big storm up in New England about a week ago.

That would be some insane snowfall for all of you along the GA coast. Hope it works out!

[northjaxpro]

This morning's 6Z GFS 132 hour run shows a rather impressive winter weather event for the Deep South, with snow and mixture of rain/snow all the way down to the I-10 corridor in Northeast Florida.

[img]
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... eus_22.png[/img]



Dare I say we could see another possible snow event here in Jax or within 50 miles of the area within a 30-day time period?

Also, 0Z EURO is beginning to show potential snow event for Friday across much of North Carolina and South Carolina. This morning's CMC run also shows pretty decent cold core upper level pocket moving through the Southeast US on Friday as well. Also, worth noting that we had a similar set-up back on November 1 2014, as a very potent cold core upper Low brought the historic snow event to areas in South Carolina. If the moisture is available, which seems like the case at the moment, and the upper air column is cold enough, this winter event is possible. Now, plenty can change of course with the models, and I am not going to fully bite yet, but if the EURO keeps showing trends of joining the GFS and CMC with this possible event Friday, this will definitely get my attention as time progresses. I will be very interested to see the later runs.

[hurricanehunter69]

Could we actually pull it out in the fourth quarter? Might be a memorable February..... http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... M&ps=model

[SeGaBob]

12Z dropped it all together... but maybe it will come back.

The weather channel is showing around a inch Thursday night and 1-3 inches Friday morning.

NWS is still too uncertain to put anything in the forecast... but they are noting the GFS in the forecast discussions.

I'm still not holding by breath though.

[northjaxpro]

I agree SeGaBob. But, the next 2 days worth of runs should determine how this shakes out. I am not biting totally yet either, but remember the set up on this past November 1 event. I am not suggesting it will happen again, but it is plausible.

[northjaxpro]

The latest 6-10 day temperature outlooks from NOAA shows the Eastern United States seaboard south down into Florida staying rather below normal, while the areas west of the Mississippi River will be above normal, especially out in the Rockies and into California.

[Hammy]

18z GFS run has snow jumping all the way to Kentucky/West Virginia and not really going south of there at all, the GFS is proving pretty useless beyond 48 hours at this point and I think any chance of snow in the southeast is long gone at this point given next week's temperature trend.