ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[storm4u]

18z gefs love florida

[Blown Away]

18z gefs love florida

[TheStormExpert]

18z GEFS Ensembles trending even further west!

[adam0983]

Yikes not good anyone think it will go east again.

[Blown Away]

One thing great about these models is they can swing all over the place... 06z this morning they were hundreds of miles off Florida coast...

[meriland23]

Are these brash west 18z models taking into account the system behind it that now has a 50% chance of formation? Cause I thought the track was dependent on that (formation = OTS or East , No Formation = west) ???

[fci]

18z GEFS Ensembles trending even further west!

http://i64.tinypic.com/125idqo.jpg

Differences between GEFS and GFS?

[toad strangler]

[northjaxpro]

One thing great about these models is they can swing all over the place... 06z this morning they were hundreds of miles off Florida coast...

They certainly could change, but we are getting real close to the event (within 3-4 days) and it would be quite surprising to see wild shifts like you are suggesting. But, I pray it happens for our sakes I can tell you that!!

[Evil Jeremy]

Differences between GEFS and GFS?

GFES is the ensembles put together.

[ZX12R]

Hurricane conditions could still be felt near the coast with this run, it keeps creeping closer. This is with dropsonde data as well? I've already got the gasoline ready.

Umm..Hurricane conditions all up and down the FL east coast and tropical storm force winds across the entire peninsula the GFS verifies. I'm thinking now the westward shifts are not done - we will likely see landfall near Ft Laud to WPB to Vero and some inland penetration up the center of the state. Florida is in for a major catastrophe here - our luck may have just ran out.

I don't like the idea of westward shifts not being done.

[dukeblue219]

Don't think there was technically a CONUS landfall in that entire run... Crazy close...

I *think* the 18z GFS makes landfall at 120 hours with the eye partially over Isle of Palms, SC (off of Charleston). It's been almost 30 years since Hugo -- that area is (like everywhere) far more developed than it was back then.

[Blown Away]

Don't think there was technically a CONUS landfall in that entire run... Crazy close...

I *think* the 18z GFS makes landfall at 120 hours with the eye partially over Isle of Palms, SC (off of Charleston). It's been almost 30 years since Hugo -- that area is (like everywhere) far more developed than it was back then.

Crazy it's been 30 years... Here in Jupiter we got school off for Hugo and it was bright sunny day... Not so much for Charleston...

[northjaxpro]

Well, if these indications of Matthew conutinues overnight with the ridging continuing in the model runs, I would have to think NHC will have to put up Hurricane Watches for a sizable portiion of the Florida East Coast. I have to believe also that evacuations will probably be starting sometime tomorow as well.

[Evil Jeremy]

GFDL a bit more west, a bit closer to Florida, but sparing South Carolina this time.

[gatorcane]

NAVGEM with landfall in West Palm Beach at 78 hours

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[ronjon]

Well, if these indications of Matthew conutinues overnight with the ridging continuing in the model runs, I would have to think NHC will have to put up Hurricane Watches for a sizable portiion of the Florida East Coast. I have to believe also that evacuations will probably be starting sometime tomorow as well.

No doubt northjax. I think with the GFS ensembles now shifting west showing a CAT 4 storm just offshore WPB- Vero, they'll likely issue hurricane watches. There will have to be a massive amount of planning to move millions of people away from the coast.

[Shaneomac12345]

It all got to do with how fast the trof comes in from the great lakes that (piece of energy wont be onshore of the pacific till late tomorrow) . , strength of the Bermuda high , and if invest 98 develops if it does ,does it change how strong the ridge is ? .. alot of changes i think will happen in the next day or so on models .. (window wiper effect) , and i still think we dont know the exact track for Matthew but areas from Eastern Florida to North Carolina needs to be prepared .. ..

The euro is slower on the trof moving out of the great lakes , which is crucial on where Matthew goes (Slower=farther east track Faster=farther west track)
18z gfs is a little slower with trof than the 12 z gfs which equals to a closer track towards Florida/North Carolina but dont ride up the coast instead the phase happens just offshore and brings hurricane/extra tropical storm into Nova Scotia ..

So the next few model runs will be interesting . either way Haiti looks like they will get cat 4 hurricane regardless .. My prayers are with them from Nova Scotia . and hope they recover and there heeding the warnings ..

[Blown Away]

NAVGEM with landfall in West Palm Beach at 78 hours

Is that a little N of 12z Navgem??