ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CalmBeforeStorm]

The Euro will be the key. It's been steadily moving west along with the ensembles and the cluster. The GFS did move slightly east but the Euro has been doing the better job with this storm.

I have to disagree with this. Maybe in the Caribbean it did better but the GFS for days has had this right off the NC coast while the Euro was sending it to Bermuda. It's only figured it out in the past 1-2 days whereas the GFS was much more consistent with a NC impact.

I thought that too but posters here have posted charts that show that the Euro was much better, especially in the 3-5 day range.

[SFLcane]

And just like that dade broward out of cone lol. It's abvious with overnight and 12z guidance. Would not be suprised of models trend even further NE. We can deal with some rainy wx.

[centuryv58]

The fact remains though, the projected proximity of Matthew to the Florida coastline is enough reason for all of those within 30 or so miles from the coast, to take all appropriate preparations now just in case a small deviation of track were to suddenly cause your life and property to be in jeopardy. The margin of error is very small here. Not preparing in the face of Hurricane Watches would not be responsible.

I assume they placed a Hurricane Watch for S FL because they expect trouble. It's is not a TS watch north of Deerfield Beach.

[centuryv58]

The fact remains though, the projected proximity of Matthew to the Florida coastline is enough reason for all of those within 30 or so miles from the coast, to take all appropriate preparations now just in case a small deviation of track were to suddenly cause your life and property to be in jeopardy. The margin of error is very small here. Not preparing in the face of Hurricane Watches would not be responsible.

I assume they placed a Hurricane Watch for S FL because they expect trouble. It's is not a TS watch north of Deerfield Beach.

[txwatcher91]

As to be expected, the eye has shrunken quite a bit after landfall. The newest VDM indicates the eye is now 12 nm in diameter, down from 28 nm from the first VDM.

What causes the eye to shrink? Will it expand back as it restrengthens? Unfortunately the mountains didn't weaken it much and with it barely grazing Cuba it likely won't weaken much then either.

Land friction. Friction deflects air parcels to the left of what is expected in an idealized gradient wind balance model, and more friction has greater effects. When a tropical cyclone moves over land (especially land as rough as Hispaniola), it transitions from moving over a low friction ocean surface to a much higher friction terrain, abruptly deflecting parcels left in the lower levels. It increases convergence, but also fills the pressure valley faster than it can be removed.

Thanks that makes sense!

[ronjon]

Completely agree... I think we have seen the most west the models will go. Also thinking Matthew will be less "scary" for northern Florida through the Carolina's as far as strength goes. But still a major situation not to be taken lightly.

We are within the time frame now when models are much more accurate. The reason that models were east in the first place was underestimation of the ridge and phantom weaknesses that the models picked up on which never materialized. People, this is it. The storm will track very close to its current projection. It may even track a tad further west. Talk of shifting back east is almost akin to dreaming or denial. People in the forecast path need to stop speculating and make preparattions for a landfalling major hurricane. They need to be thinking about supplies, if they are going to evacuate, prescription meds,ect...

Say what you wish about dreaming, however there IS a large difference between a hurricane being 50-80 miles off shore verses perhaps 10-20 miles. Latest NHC official track no longer has Matthew reaching 80W closer to Jupiter, but further north where also at a latitude which would be further off shore the St. Augustine/New Smyrna area. 6Z model cluster does depict an eastward trend of models displayed and NAM mesoscale guidance DOES suggest the slightest new nuance between the building high pressure ridge to Matthew's north (and east) and the storm itself. Whether the 500mb flow just north of the storm from 36-60 hours is veered more southerly as a result of Matthew moving a bit faster north right now, an effect of Nicole slightly eroding the SW corner of the ridge, or simply because the ridge itself was a bit slower than progged to build west.... I am feeling fairly confident that we will soon see the GFS 12Z model bend at least slightly more east and north as a result. Furthermore, I anticipate the EURO also at least showing a far lessened threat to the Southern half of Florida, though I'm less sure about whether the ridge will build in fast enough to push Matthew to the N. Florida coastline. At this time though, i'm inclined to believe that Matthew will not actually make Florida landfall. All this said, that's not to suggest that small changes to storm speed, strength, or evolving synoptics couldn't change just a little bit more, but that is how I see this now playing out.

See my recent post on the models section - NHC at 11 am is on the east side of guidance - part of the problem is they linearly interpolate the points between 48 and 72 hrs on the track. Without an intermediate point, it leads to a misunderstanding on track - which will likely be closer between 48 and 72 hrs.

[txwatcher91]

The Euro will be the key. It's been steadily moving west along with the ensembles and the cluster. The GFS did move slightly east but the Euro has been doing the better job with this storm.

I have to disagree with this. Maybe in the Caribbean it did better but the GFS for days has had this right off the NC coast while the Euro was sending it to Bermuda. It's only figured it out in the past 1-2 days whereas the GFS was much more consistent with a NC impact.

I thought that too but posters here have posted charts that show that the Euro was much better, especially in the 3-5 day range.

Maybe verification scores while it was in the Caribbean but I watched every run of it and it had a Bermuda or way OTS solution for awhile. It also had a solution of stalling for a few days in the Bahamas. Meanwhile the GFS had it either impacting NC or 100-200 miles offshore, close enough for concern. From that aspect the GFS did much better imo.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

And just like that dade broward out of cone lol. It's abvious with overnight and 12z guidance. Would not be suprised of models trend even further NE. We can deal with some rainy wx.

The forecast track has changed very little, maybe 10 miles east based on the change in the GFS. The cone changes because it narrows as the storm gets closer.

[otterlyspicey]

Unless there's a decent wobble to the east before Cuba, Matthew has his eye (literally) set on going over the widest and most brutal terrain for a hurricane over eastern Cuba.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

We are within the time frame now when models are much more accurate. The reason that models were east in the first place was underestimation of the ridge and phantom weaknesses that the models picked up on which never materialized. People, this is it. The storm will track very close to its current projection. It may even track a tad further west. Talk of shifting back east is almost akin to dreaming or denial. People in the forecast path need to stop speculating and make preparattions for a landfalling major hurricane. They need to be thinking about supplies, if they are going to evacuate, prescription meds,ect...

Say what you wish about dreaming, however there IS a large difference between a hurricane being 50-80 miles off shore verses perhaps 10-20 miles. Latest NHC official track no longer has Matthew reaching 80W closer to Jupiter, but further north where also at a latitude which would be further off shore the St. Augustine/New Smyrna area. 6Z model cluster does depict an eastward trend of models displayed and NAM mesoscale guidance DOES suggest the slightest new nuance between the building high pressure ridge to Matthew's north (and east) and the storm itself. Whether the 500mb flow just north of the storm from 36-60 hours is veered more southerly as a result of Matthew moving a bit faster north right now, an effect of Nicole slightly eroding the SW corner of the ridge, or simply because the ridge itself was a bit slower than progged to build west.... I am feeling fairly confident that we will soon see the GFS 12Z model bend at least slightly more east and north as a result. Furthermore, I anticipate the EURO also at least showing a far lessened threat to the Southern half of Florida, though I'm less sure about whether the ridge will build in fast enough to push Matthew to the N. Florida coastline. At this time though, i'm inclined to believe that Matthew will not actually make Florida landfall. All this said, that's not to suggest that small changes to storm speed, strength, or evolving synoptics couldn't change just a little bit more, but that is how I see this now playing out.

See my recent post on the models section - NHC at 11 am is on the east side of guidance - part of the problem is they linearly interpolate the points between 48 and 72 hrs on the track. Without an intermediate point, it leads to a misunderstanding on track - which will likely be closer between 48 and 72 hrs.

Excellent point. Same is true with this last Euro run. Can't tell how close it gets to Florida because of the 24 hour gap in points.

[ObsessedMiami]

I find Storm2K to be a great use when a storm is in the 5-7 day range. But less so when the storm is in closer proximity because you have too many posts stating definitively this model or that observation has sweeping generalizations like "dodged a bullet" or "it's coming, for sure". My favorite is "this won't be any worse than a normal afternoon thunderstorm."

too much at stake. while I certainly hope it passes by SFL with nothing more than TS gusts, not about to make any such statement based on a storm that is still below Cuba.

my two cents as a casual outsider.

[GCANE]

Eye back over water and faintly appearing back on visible.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

I am thinking that Nicole is what the models have been sniffing to keep Matthew off of the Florida coast all along. While she isn't going to be strong enough to erode the ridge to the point Matthew recurves, I think she is strong enough to be what causes Matthew to visit my house in Southport, NC. This is probably what everyone was missing when talking about a Florida landfall.

Definitely could track up there, but as others have pointed out it may be a shell of its current self by the time it gets up there.

I wouldn't call a strong 2 or 3 a shell of itself.

[Yellow Evan]

RMW won't decrease so this is an extremely dangerous hurricane regardless of its intensity fluctuations over the next couple days.

[KBBOCA]

And just like that dade broward out of cone lol. It's abvious with overnight and 12z guidance. Would not be suprised of models trend even further NE. We can deal with some rainy wx.

The forecast track has changed very little, maybe 10 miles east based on the change in the GFS. The cone changes because it narrows as the storm gets closer.

This is exactly why / how the NHC cone confuses those who don't usually follow hurricanes or understand what the cone is. The cone narrows to show the average error margin decreases for the forecast at that timeframe. However, the cone does not reflect storm size. Somehow you need a graphic that overlays projected storm size over the tracking cone to give an idea of the area within which impacts might be felt.

I know I've seen a few sites that do that kind of thing (e.g. with the windfield radius), but it's not that widespread. The cone is great for what it means, but for novices it can surely be confusing if they think of it as the impact zone.

[1900hurricane]

Data from radar and recon seem to show the structure mostly intact.

[GCANE]

[Aric Dunn]

And the GFS has moved slight west and slower. almost landfall in brevard county then heads up to jacksonville.

[seahawkjd]

Data from radar and recon seem to show the structure mostly intact.

Did the eye just get considerably larger?

[HurricaneFrances04]

Eye looks to be reappearing on visible. Getting its "sea legs" back before next landfall in ~8 hours.