Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Texas Snow]

FWD

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
Update:
No significant changes have been made to the forecast since the
overnight update. Latest guidance continues to trend slightly
colder behind the weekend cold front, with high temperatures in
the 20s/30s for most locations Sunday and Monday and dangerous
overnight lows in the teens and 20s. It won`t take much wind to
drop wind chills into the single digits for some areas. Start
preparing for the dangerous cold now!

We continue to monitor the potential for winter weather early next
week. Latest ensemble guidance is leaning slightly more in favor
of a wet forecast than dry, but there is still significant
uncertainty in whether moisture return will be sufficient ahead of
the early week system. The potential is currently more favorable
in Central Texas, with most members keying in on the Monday night-
Tuesday timeframe. Most of this time period is just outside of
the current forecast period, so no winter precipitation has been
advertised at this time. However, we`ll continue to reassess with
the evening/overnight data as we get within range of this time
period tonight.

Barnes

[Ralph's Weather]

SHV has inserted 20% snow for Monday.

[Throckmorton]

Also high pressure on the Euro maps would probably get close to all time records for a few locations.

Holy moly. I use tropical tidbits and its usually slow to update. Pics?

I meant for Texas. 1053mb or so is Amarillo's record.

https://i.imgur.com/0bCxDZ5.png

https://i.imgur.com/j0DRxzA.gif

31.02 inches (1050.45 mb) on December 23, 1989, is the highest pressure on record for Austin Camp Mabry.

30.62 inches was the maximum during February 2021.
30.84 inches during the big feeeze of December 2022.
30.63 inches during January 2024.
30.97 inches during December 1983.

Pressure is not a reliable indicator of severe cold.

[Brent]

Tulsa already mentioned it may shift north

[Ntxw]

Tulsa already mentioned it may shift north

Don't fall for it Brent, let it show south!

[Portastorm]

Relevant blurb from the afternoon forecast discussion out of NWS Austin/San Antonio:

Speaking of below normal temperatures..following this Arctic air
blast low temps for Monday are forecast to be in the low to mid 20s
areawide with some teens showing up in the Hill Country. Highs and
low temperatures trend colder each day throughout the end of the
forecast period. This looks to be a more prolonged cold snap which is
something we haven`t really had this winter so far. Another thing to
keep is mind is Cold Weather advisories may need to be issued for
several days if the forecast continues to trend colder. Now is the
time to prepare the four P`s People, Pets, Pipes, and Plants.
Regarding precip chances, there are some signs from the ensembles and
Global models of some form of precip occuring during the Monday to
Tuesday timeframe however as we saw with the last system its far too
early to state specifics at this time. Stay tuned to future
forecasts as more details come into focus.

[Tireman4]

HGX has pulled snow out of the forecast, as well they should. My thoughts and these are only my thoughts. The trend is your friend. Also, there are two shifts ( maybe three) shifts at the HGX NWS ( as there are at the news station). They have their own autonomy when forecasting. The morning shift might have thought more of a frozen P-Type event than the evening shift. For HGX to even mention it, this early in the game, tells you that they are thinking about it. Read the last part of this afternoon's AFD...

This is when the forecast gets quite tricky trying to
pin down the magnitude of this cold air, as well as the chances of
seeing snow or sleet/freezing rain behind this reinforcing front.
I would not advice zeroing in on a single forecast model, or
model run, but to think in terms of uncertainty. This far out we
will keep close to the mean NBM values for now. However the temps
could very well keep trending colder as the NBM members begin to
coalesce over the coming days. Currently, more certain of a hard
freeze north of i10, although the 25th percentile min temps from
the nbm bring a hard freeze down to the coast Tuesday morning.

There remains quite a a bit of uncertainty regarding wintery
precipitation late Monday and Tuesday as a fast moving system
overspreads the western Gulf of Mexico. This could bring
sufficient ascent and moisture over southeast TX for some
snow/light icing. This energy and associated surface low could
also stay well into the Gulf of Mexico with mostly dry and cold
conditions across our area. The NBM deterministic guidance does
have some mention in the forecast, so will opt to leave those in
play for now. However, this can all change- and probably will!


I was shocked when the morning shift pulled the trigger on it. I think you will see it come back as the week wears on. Stay tuned.

[Ntxw]

18z GFS so far is that big ULL low off California coast, however it is much slower than prior runs.

[txtwister78]

Interesting to see what analogs pop up for this one. I can recall Jan 2007 (MLK winter storm) impacting much of the state with significant sleet and freezing rain across San Antonio metro with snow just NW into the HC and West Texas. I think almost every region was impacted by that one.

[Lagreeneyes03]

I am sure everyone's method on preventing their water from freezing is different

Mine is just getting the space heaters and turn them on inside the well house. Usually one does the trick, but if the cold gets below zero (or expected to), we get two in there. Just don't get them too close to the plastic pipes or they will melt the pipes and burst the water out of the pipes.

Did that in February 2021 with no problems

I think if we get worst case scenario (no power) plan B has to be cut the water off.

[Portastorm]

Interesting to see what analogs pop up for this one. I can recall Jan 2007 (MLK winter storm) impacting much of the state with significant sleet and freezing rain across San Antonio metro with snow just NW into the HC and West Texas. I think almost every region was impacted by that one.

Oh man I remember that one! Several days of ice/sleet and a little snow. We were below freezing here in Austin for something like 60 hours. In fact, I had the thrill of observing thundersleet during that event. It was pretty wild.

[Ntxw]

Austin to Waco bullseye on this run of the GFS. Some in Houston, mixing in S-Texas turns to snow. Southern storm dominant, dry up north.

[BigB0882]

Austin to Waco bullseye on this run of the GFS. Some in Houston, mixing in S-Texas turns to snow. Southern storm dominant, dry up north.

The low seems to blow up off the Texas coast but just sat there. Nothing really moved east. Is that an unusual outcome to anyone else? They usually traverse across the gulf and eventually up the east coast.

[Throckmorton]

The EPS mean forecast temperatures for Jan. 20th along with the 90th and 10th percentiles plus the daily record lows and snow on the ground (Jan. 14th, 12Z run):

23–10...(27–03).....B02...0.75...Amarillo
36–25...(39–20).....17......0.28...Austin Camp Mabry
31–22...(35–18).....10......0.20...Dallas
40–30...(37–24).....20......0.31...Houston
22–14...(27–10).....01......0.31...Oklahoma City
22–14...(26–10).....B03...0.16...Tulsa

At the 10th percentile, half of these stations would get within five degrees of the existing record lows.

On average, the EPS is 4.5° cooler than the GEFS and 7.7° warmer than the GEPS.

=====

The GEFS mean forecast high and low temperatures for Jan. 20th along with the 90th and 10th percentiles plus the daily record lows and snow on the ground (Jan. 14th, 12Z run):

26–14...(37–08)...B02...0.60...Amarillo
39–29...(46–24)...24.....0.70...Austin Camp Mabry
35–24...(41–18)...10.....0.59...Dallas
45–35...(50–28)...20.....0.08...Houston
29–22...(37–18)...01.....0.35...Oklahoma City
27–18...(34–14)...B03...0.64...Tulsa

At the 10th percentile, only Austin Camp Mabry would get within five degrees of the existing record lows.

On average, the GEFS is 12.2° warmer than the GEPS.

=====

The GEPS mean forecast high and low temperatures for Jan. 20th along with the 90th and 10th percentiles plus the daily record lows and snow on the ground (Jan. 14th, 12Z run):

14–04.....(27–B05)...B02...0.91...Amarillo
25–19.....(33–10)......17.....1.02...Austin Camp Mabry
22–16.....(31–08)......10.....0.51...Dallas
33–26.....(41–19)..... 20.....0.83...Houston
15–05.....(26–B02)....01.....0.31...Oklahoma City
15–03.....(23–B03)...B03...0.20...Tulsa

At the 10th percentile, all of these stations would tie or break the existing record lows. At the 50th percentile, only two stations would get within five degrees of the existing record lows.

[Ntxw]

Austin to Waco bullseye on this run of the GFS. Some in Houston, mixing in S-Texas turns to snow. Southern storm dominant, dry up north.

The low seems to blow up off the Texas coast but just sat there. Nothing really moved east. Is that an unusual outcome to anyone else? They usually traverse across the gulf and eventually up the east coast.

It's cutoff from the main flow and is largely independent, just doing it's own thing until there isn't much left after the next piece of energy picks it up. Is it the right solution? We don't know, it's different than 12z GFS and this feature has only showed up the past day of runs or so. Some models have the northern energy dominant, some have the southern feature dominant.

[MississippiWx]

We are going to be sweating this out I’m afraid. Still wild swings to come. Was hoping it had stabilized with those 12z runs, but doesn’t look to be the case.

[Stratton23]

18z Euro goes out 144 hours so its just starting to get in range of the system, breaking out a wintry mix across western south texas on monday, system looks a tad deeper at the end of the run as well

[Iceresistance]

Valid points
 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1879299545315819605

[TeamPlayersBlue]

MJO is really playing out just as we planned weeks ago.

[txtwister78]

18z Euro goes out 144 hours so its just starting to get in range of the system, breaking out a wintry mix across western south texas on monday, system looks a tad deeper at the end of the run as well