ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Flipping thru the latest steering charts; it looks like the weaker the TC, the more tug to the west.

[Vdogg]

Unless there's a decent wobble to the east before Cuba, Matthew has his eye (literally) set on going over the widest and most brutal terrain for a hurricane over eastern Cuba.

It's moving due North. It'll barely scrape the eastern tip of Cuba. Definitely not going over the widest part.

[SunnyThoughts]

Unless there's a decent wobble to the east before Cuba, Matthew has his eye (literally) set on going over the widest and most brutal terrain for a hurricane over eastern Cuba.

It's moving due North. It'll barely scrape the eastern tip of Cuba. Definitely not going over the widest part.

Exactly, probably won't stay over land in Cuba longer than a couple of hours.

[Aric Dunn]

pressure has come down a couple mb... winds still support 145mph. which is crazy

[Alyono]

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wir ... w-42546137

4 confirmed dead in the DR

[Hamanard]

pressure has come down a couple mb... winds still support 145mph. which is crazy

As a pro met said the other day, the gulf of gonave has the highest heat content in the world. So one would expect a fairly rapid organization.

[AlabamaDave]

That far eastern tip of Cuba is hilly, but I wouldn't call it brutal.

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 15:42:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°57'N 74°16'W (18.95N 74.2667W)

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 108kts (~ 124.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NW (306°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 951mb (28.09 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)

L. Eye Character: Open in the southeast, SE
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)

[Weather Dummy]

Hi all, first time poster. I'm clueless when it comes to hurricane tracking but this storm definitely has my attention. I live 5 blocks from the ocean in Jacksonville Beach, never worried much about hurricanes as we usually only get outer effects due to the recessed nature of our coastline. But, this time we may not be so lucky. Question for those with more hurricane experience I live in a concrete block home built in the 50's and do not currently have any type of shutters for my windows. Is the track of this storm dire enough for Jacksonville Beach that I should consider making a Home Depot run to buy plywood & attempt to board up?

[GCANE]

At 951mb and lower, steering is currently straight north.
Matt will just brush the east tip of Cuba at this rate.

[MGC]

Looks like the mountains in Haiti knocked Matthew down a bit. Lets see how fast the core can recover. Headed due north should not spend too much time over Cuba.....MGC

[chaser1]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 15:42:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°57'N 74°16'W (18.95N 74.2667W)

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 108kts (~ 124.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NW (306°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 951mb (28.09 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)

L. Eye Character: Open in the southeast, SE
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)

Matthew came out of that relatively unscathed (considering it could've gotten shredded ). Next test will be E. Cuba. Could wobble around, or even East of Cuba. Significant ramifications if this were to happen

[GCANE]

Hi all, first time poster. I'm clueless when it comes to hurricane tracking but this storm definitely has my attention. I live 5 blocks from the ocean in Jacksonville Beach, never worried much about hurricanes as we usually only get outer effects due to the recessed nature of our coastline. But, this time we may not be so lucky. Question for those with more hurricane experience I live in a concrete block home built in the 50's and do not currently have any type of shutters for my windows. Is the track of this storm dire enough for Jacksonville Beach that I should consider making a Home Depot run to buy plywood & attempt to board up?

You don't want to go later and find out they ran out.
You can always save it for the next time.

[karenfromheaven]

anyone see the few GEFS models do a HUGE loop?

LOL. Everybody loves the Bahamas, even hurricanes.

Not funny, but damn. I either laugh or cry.

Don't know if this is on-topic but for those of you with 2-story houses, do you bother boarding up the second story windows as well? Got two big windows upstairs to my master bedroom and it would be a real hassle to have to board those up. But then again, it would be a bigger hassle to get them replaced and deal with the damage.

Not only is boarding up important to protect windows from damage, it also serves to protect the structure from wind intrusion should the opening be breached. If high winds are allowed into the structure, the likeliehood of roof failure or loss increases greatly. And the winds might be a little stronger on the second floor. They certainly are stronger in the upper floors of high rise buildings.

[meriland23]

is the SW shear gonna shred it to a cat 1 like NHC predicts by landfall?

[OntarioEggplant]

This is a good time to tell people that silly -removed- or trolling predictions... Especially with respect to lacking predictions of model runs or claiming that an area is "safe" when they are far from it is both irresponsible and deserves likely suspension if it happens multiple times.

Listen to Pro Mets. Listen to the NHC. Look at all model runs in their entirety and together before making claims if you are an amateur. Ask questions. Give good advice when it is warranted and you are knowledgeable. But the irresponsible posts need to stop.

As an aside to the mods, I'd like to present my transcript to you showing that I'm a professional meteorologist when I get the chance to pull it later today, but I'd like for my name to remain anonymous so I will probably black out that part and write my username. Just an FYI.

[sancholopez]

Just spoke to someone in South Carolina that said they have started evacuations in the bottom of their state, wow.

[NYR__1994]

When was the last time you saw an exclamation point in a forecast discussion?

From NWS Charleston

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Significant impacts from Hurricane Matthew are becoming more likely
late this week across southeast SC/GA!

[OntarioEggplant]

is the SW shear gonna shred it to a cat 1 like NHC predicts by landfall?

The NHC is predicting a major hurricane coming very close to the coast. Residents should prepare for a major hurricane.

[Evil Jeremy]

is the SW shear gonna shred it to a cat 1 like NHC predicts by landfall?

Impossible to give a confident answer to this so far out. We don't know for sure what's going to happen yet.