Texas Winter 2022-2023
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
- txtwister78
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Ntxw wrote:cstrunk wrote:Help us folks stuck at 34F out... This thread needs more pictures!
Reed Timmer still chasing and is driving through the heart of the metroplex.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HPKop-UXU6E
Good thing that's not all freezing rain like RGEM had or he wouldn't be able to do that. Much easier to travel/get traction on. Be safe everyone. Things really begin to ramp up tonight into Wednesday.
3 likes
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
The airports are a mess. I was supposed to fly to SF this morning and was rescheduled for this afternoon. I can't get out of my driveway.
Edit: Advisory 047. Average delay at DFW now 5 hours, 1 min.
Edit: Advisory 047. Average delay at DFW now 5 hours, 1 min.
Last edited by opticsguy on Tue Jan 31, 2023 10:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Just had a huge flash and then my dog about peed himself with the ground shaking thunder…coming down in downtown Dallas.
6 likes
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Latest Wrf temp forecast keeping a good chunk of North Texas between 26-28F thru Thursday morning…seems to be the most plausible scenario given current state of ground cover now.
4 likes
- Iceresistance
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- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Thundersleet for the 2nd day in a row
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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- Category 5
- Posts: 2254
- Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:47 am
- Location: North Fort Worth
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Back edge starting to move through so that’s about it for this round.
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- Texas Snow
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- Joined: Mon Oct 19, 2015 12:06 pm
- Location: N. Dallas & Cedar Creek Lake
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Steve McCauley explains the snow with warm higher level temps
Okay...think I may have found the answer to the "how can it be snowing" question...and it is a bit embarrassing!
You know, we are taught how to determine what type of precipitation will be observed at the surface with any given atmospheric setup, and you learn a certain set of procedures that - in the vast majority of cases - leads you to the correct answer. And in so doing, you totally ignore the "exception" to the rule which occurs so infrequently, you don't even bother including it in your decision making process.
Well, I totally ignored the exception to the rule. Shame on me, minus 10 on the quiz.
You see, usually, you need temperatures down to around 14°F to form your typical snowflake in the atmosphere, and for us, that usually happens thousands of feet above the ground. But today, thousands of feet above the ground, the temperatures are well above freezing across north Texas.
But there is an unusual "snowflake" that looks like a needle instead of your typical hexagonal ice crystal. These needles only require temperatures of 23°F inside the cloud to form, and as you can see in this pic, that is precisely the kind of snowflakes we had. They look like little white elongated hairs.
So, we didn't have to go thousands of feet into the air to find our snow factory. It was only a few hundred feet above the ground.
How embarrassing, and shame on me for forgetting this simple little fact of cloud microphysics.
But still, the real trick is knowing WHEN to forecast such an event, because this doesn't happen every time a cloud drops to 23°F !
Okay...think I may have found the answer to the "how can it be snowing" question...and it is a bit embarrassing!
You know, we are taught how to determine what type of precipitation will be observed at the surface with any given atmospheric setup, and you learn a certain set of procedures that - in the vast majority of cases - leads you to the correct answer. And in so doing, you totally ignore the "exception" to the rule which occurs so infrequently, you don't even bother including it in your decision making process.
Well, I totally ignored the exception to the rule. Shame on me, minus 10 on the quiz.
You see, usually, you need temperatures down to around 14°F to form your typical snowflake in the atmosphere, and for us, that usually happens thousands of feet above the ground. But today, thousands of feet above the ground, the temperatures are well above freezing across north Texas.
But there is an unusual "snowflake" that looks like a needle instead of your typical hexagonal ice crystal. These needles only require temperatures of 23°F inside the cloud to form, and as you can see in this pic, that is precisely the kind of snowflakes we had. They look like little white elongated hairs.
So, we didn't have to go thousands of feet into the air to find our snow factory. It was only a few hundred feet above the ground.
How embarrassing, and shame on me for forgetting this simple little fact of cloud microphysics.
But still, the real trick is knowing WHEN to forecast such an event, because this doesn't happen every time a cloud drops to 23°F !
7 likes
"Don't let wishcastin get in the way of your forecastin"
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
txtwister78 wrote:Ntxw wrote:cstrunk wrote:Help us folks stuck at 34F out... This thread needs more pictures!
Reed Timmer still chasing and is driving through the heart of the metroplex.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HPKop-UXU6E
Good thing that's not all freezing rain like RGEM had or he wouldn't be able to do that. Much easier to travel/get traction on. Be safe everyone. Things really begin to ramp up tonight into Wednesday.
Prefer sleet.
This whole event has me questioning algorithms on weather map sites. Even when it's sleeting they are showing freezing rain. I know raw model output doesn't discern colors, only raw data.
2 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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- Category 5
- Posts: 2254
- Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:47 am
- Location: North Fort Worth
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Ntxw wrote:txtwister78 wrote:Ntxw wrote:
Reed Timmer still chasing and is driving through the heart of the metroplex.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HPKop-UXU6E
Good thing that's not all freezing rain like RGEM had or he wouldn't be able to do that. Much easier to travel/get traction on. Be safe everyone. Things really begin to ramp up tonight into Wednesday.
Prefer sleet.
This whole event has me questioning algorithms on weather map sites. Even when it's sleeting they are showing freezing rain. I know raw model output doesn't discern colors, only raw data.
Heck, even the WPC is clueless. They said it was freezing rain just a bit ago. And they are experts trained in this. So much we don’t know.
1 likes
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
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- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
I don't think my School will be in person until at least Friday, the roads are completely sleet covered.
0 likes
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Easily 0.5-1"+ of sleet has fallen across the metroplex.
DFW Airport 26F Ice Pellets
0.33" qpf.
DFW Airport 26F Ice Pellets
0.33" qpf.
1 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Iceresistance wrote:I don't think my School will be in person until at least Friday, the roads are completely sleet covered.
No word yet on schools for tomorrow but it is only a matter of time. Parents should prepare for another kids day off Wednesday.
1 likes
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8931
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
gpsnowman wrote:Iceresistance wrote:I don't think my School will be in person until at least Friday, the roads are completely sleet covered.
No word yet on schools for tomorrow but it is only a matter of time. Parents should prepare for another kids day off Wednesday.
Well, mine (I'm in HS) are prepared to be off until at least Friday.
1 likes
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
gpsnowman wrote:Iceresistance wrote:I don't think my School will be in person until at least Friday, the roads are completely sleet covered.
No word yet on schools for tomorrow but it is only a matter of time. Parents should prepare for another kids day off Wednesday.
They won't go back until Friday.
4 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
So do we think tonight/tomorrow is going to be mostly sleet or freezing rain for DFW? Some local mets are still leaning to the latter despite the temp “bust” thus far.
1 likes
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Ntxw wrote:gpsnowman wrote:Iceresistance wrote:I don't think my School will be in person until at least Friday, the roads are completely sleet covered.
No word yet on schools for tomorrow but it is only a matter of time. Parents should prepare for another kids day off Wednesday.
They won't go back until Friday.
Agree 100%.
0 likes
- Edwards Limestone
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- Joined: Tue Dec 28, 2021 11:05 am
- Location: Smithson Valley, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
no icy roads on my commute into north SA from the hill country this morning...fine with me
2 likes
The above post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Tejas89 wrote:So do we think tonight/tomorrow is going to be mostly sleet or freezing rain for DFW? Some local mets are still leaning to the latter despite the temp “bust” thus far.
NAM maps has been good so far on p-types. Sleet but transitioning to freezing rain. So after a nice sleet event, glaze it over with a sheet of ice.
1 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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