ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[KWT]

The other thing to note is the models that bend it back west tend to be the ones that typically overdo high pressure cells, such as the UKMO from what I've seen in the past.

Can't wait till we get vis imasgery, from looking at the overnight imagery this has developed a classic presentation, now just need to form an inner core and we are off to the races.

[Sabanic]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
430 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

MANY OF US ALONG THE ALABAMA...
NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST MAY HAVE BEGUN TO ENTERTAIN THE IDEA
THAT GUSTAV WOULD MORE LIKELY MAKE LANDFALL FARTHER WEST OF OUR
AREA...BUT BEING THIS EARLY IN THE GAME THAT IS PRE-MATURE. THERE
ARE COMPLICATING FACTORS IN THE FORECAST MAKING THE TRACK FORECAST
OF GUSTAV PROBLEMATIC. THE MAIN FACTOR THAT COULD HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF GUSTAV EARLY ON IS THE UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE GULF FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THAT TROUGH EXTENDS DEEPER INTO THE GULF THAN
WHAT MAY HAVE BEEN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND APPEARS TO STILL BE
DIGGING AS IT IS SHARPENED UP TO THE SOUTH BY THE SMALL UPPER VORTEX
SEEN SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA. THAT TROUGH MAY START TO INFLUENCE THE
MOTION OF GUSTAV EARLY ON IN THE GAME...AND COULD REQUIRE A BIT OF A
SHIFT OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK BACK TO THE EAST ON SUBESQUENT FORECAST
PACKAGES (THAT IS NOT CERTAIN...BUT A POSSIBILITY). WE CAUTION OUR
COMMUNITIES TO NOT FOCUS ON THE LITTLE BLACK DOTTED LINE ON THE
INTERNET IMAGES...AND INSTEAD WE SHOULD STRESS THAT THERE ARE LIKELY
TRACK ERRORS INVOLVED HERE. THE AREA OF UNCERTAINTY (THE "CONE")
STILL ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF OUR AREA FOR VERY GOOD REASONS...AND WE
ARE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET.

[KLP124]

blah... this looks like a Rita part II situation for us here in SE Tx. I fully expected to wake up this morn and see a fairly good consensus with the models but it looks like they're 50/50 and NHC is being forced to just split the difference! LOL So much for a nice, relaxing Labor Day weekend! What really sucks is that since it's a weekend, we're going to have to start storm preparations today just in case!

[caneman]

You can clearly see what Mobile NWS is talking about. Take a look at the GOM WV loop. It sure looks like a more Northerly movement will occur somewhere around Cayman. Very interesting and may lend creedance to a more Easterly landfall of say Pensacola or alabama. Interesting indeed.

[KWT]

I think the models will shift a little east caneman but highly doubt they will get that far east from where they are now. The thing is how fast does the high pressure build back, if it does develop as fast as the UKMO wants it to then it'll get diverted westward but thats a big uncertainty with Gustav.

Its going to keep us guessing for a while yet it seems!

[sphelps8681]

Anyone have a link to the Euro model. Channel 12 Met said that is the one they are using and it looks like it will be a Vermillion Bay landfall. This was has of this am.

[Portastorm]

Anyone have a link to the Euro model. Channel 12 Met said that is the one they are using and it looks like it will be a Vermillion Bay landfall. This was has of this am.

Try this:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2007112600!!/

[KWT]

Yep looks like central LA:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

Track from now on out should be fairly close to that of Lili 2002, thats been the system I've been comparing this to and thats what I'm sticking too, may strengthen a little faster then that did in the NW Caribbean however based on the great structure this has still.

[Ed Mahmoud]

You can clearly see what Mobile NWS is talking about. Take a look at the GOM WV loop. It sure looks like a more Northerly movement will occur somewhere around Cayman. Very interesting and may lend creedance to a more Easterly landfall of say Pensacola or alabama. Interesting indeed.

That trough extends almost to the Yucatan, and looks like it is still digging.


I think you may be on to something. I'd say Florida is definitely not out of the woods yet. Unofficially.

[HouTXmetro]

I went to bed fully expecting all the models to be in Louisiana this morning. Doesn't look like that happened. Gustav still seems to be riding close to the NHC track or slightly south. UKMET/NGFDL/NOGAPS are headed for Texas while GFS/GFDL are New Orleans and East per the models
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

There is a lot of uncertainty.

[Portastorm]

I went to bed fully expecting all the models to be in Louisiana this morning. Doesn't look like that happened. Gustav still seems to be riding close to the NHC track or slightly south. UKMET/NGFDL/NOGAPS are headed for Texas while GFS/GFDL are New Orleans and East per the models
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

There is a lot of uncertainty.

Yes indeed ... and considering we've nearly had several virtual brawls here yesterday, I shudder to think what today and tomorrow are going to bring on S2K!

[caneman]

KWT, it's not quite that simple as the ridge building back in as it also depends on how fast the storm is moving. The 06 runs will be interesting. I think the 5:00 advisory was left that way for continuity purposes as the more reliable models are to the right of NHC. Today should tell the story especially with the NOAA flight later on. IMO

[jlauderdal]

You can clearly see what Mobile NWS is talking about. Take a look at the GOM WV loop. It sure looks like a more Northerly movement will occur somewhere around Cayman. Very interesting and may lend creedance to a more Easterly landfall of say Pensacola or alabama. Interesting indeed.

That trough extends almost to the Yucatan, and looks like it is still digging.


I think you may be on to something. I'd say Florida is definitely not out of the woods yet. Unofficially.

here is a battle tested forecaster from key west using the word should instead of will, lol

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WILL MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY...BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. GUSTAV SHOULD STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE LATER TODAY AS IT
MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAMAICA OVER VERY WARM WATER.
GUSTAV SHOULD TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
EITHER OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA OR THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTAV SHOULD BEGIN
PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. GUSTAV SHOULD PASS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE FLORIDA KEYS TO PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS GUSTAV
PULLS AWAY FROM THE SERVICE AREA.

GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE GUSTAV...KEYS
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR
PROTECTIVE ACTIONS.

[KWT]

That trough does extend far down but thats why the models are showing this go from due west to WNW/NW. whether or not the models are underestimating the trough a little though is hard to say, it looks fairly flat though the western side does seem to be sharpening up a touch.

Caneman, most models still suggesting LA, they are all over the place though thats for sure, and if anything the early 06z runs were even more spread out then the 0z runs...

[cpdaman]

as i stated prior to bed

i feel bad for the folks on the gulf coast, the panic level has risen high and they were 4 days away w/ lots of uncertainty, this morning i see a UGLY GOM area with a trough getting sharper (doesn't look favorable for the next 36 hours) but then again gustav is gustav the turtle (or he has been) should strengthen steadily today as he is coming off of jamaica, where he heads i have ZERO confidence in, FL keys don't go to bed on this one either, same goes for tampa i see very little confidence in the 5 am discussion.

texas to fla keys now, stay alert

[HouTXmetro]

as i stated prior to bed

i feel bad for the folks on the gulf coast, the panic level has risen high and they were 4 days away w/ lots of uncertainty, this morning i see a UGLY GOM area with a trough getting sharper (doesn't look favorable for the next 36 hours) but then again gustav is gustav the turtle (or he has been) should strengthen steadily today as he is coming off of jamaica, where he heads i have ZERO confidence in, FL keys don't go to bed on this one either.

I just checked the WV loop and that trough does look strong. Florida CAN'T rest easy right now the NHC mentions the possibilty of shifting things way east.

[Windtalker1]

988mb

[Sabanic]

Will someone pls post a water vapor link? Can't seem to locate mine.

Thanks

[cpdaman]

wow i think we may see some interesting talk about track today, especially if that NHC NNW "short term" track starts sooner in response to the weakening ridge/sharpening trough w/ the key being that the bermuda high builds back in later in the week as opposed to this thing otherwise going NNW then N/ NNE under trough influence.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Will someone pls post a water vapor link? Can't seem to locate mine.

Thanks

My 6:05am post...