ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Wx_Warrior]

^^^west side of the storm. Remember, East = dirty.

[cpdaman]

why did nobody post the 24hr euro?

unless i'm losin it lol. could someone please post it, thank you

[Wx_Warrior]

here:



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[jes]

If the Euro is taking more of an Eastern track once it goes inland, does it mean that the longer Isaac sits in the gulf the better chance of a more Eastern track at land fall?

[Shawee]

Where is the OBS page? Doesnt seem like a lot of postings on there.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113366&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=7320

Nash, Here is a link to the discussion thread. It is usually more active in models" then this... I suspect most are making preparations themselves. The recent "breakout" of the models towards the west, while NHC (and Isaac I think) are sticking to the forcasted track. Much talk in "discussions" on stall/drift/shift... though the last official NHC observation showed up N 0.3 and W only 0.1. I like the human eyes over @ NHC on this one, and greatly respect many of the pro's and knowledgeable folks that post here.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

question: Does anyone else think that the stalled front N. of us will have any bearing on possible intensification (or hopefully lack thereof) or direction or if this plays into the NHC track holding steady versus what some of the latest models trend?

[Wx_Warrior]

HWRF 12z 24H



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[Senobia]

question: Does anyone else think that the stalled front N. of us will have any bearing on possible intensification (or hopefully lack thereof) or direction or if this plays into the NHC track holding steady versus what some of the latest models trend?

I'd say it does. He kind of has to wait for the front to let him pass, which allows him more time over water to intensify and dictates a W motion because the door to the N would be shut by the front.

[Wx_Warrior]

hwrf run via weatherbell



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[Wthrman13]

The last few runs of the HRRR have been showing a pronounced southwest wobble to begin sometime this afternoon, causing Isaac to parallel the coast rather than continuing NW to landfall. I haven't ever followed the HRRR for tropical cyclones before, so don't have a good feel for how well it does for short-term track forecasting. It will be interesting to watch, though. We'll know in a few hours!

[DonWrk]

The last few runs of the HRRR have been showing a pronounced southwest wobble to begin sometime this afternoon, causing Isaac to parallel the coast rather than continuing NW to landfall. I haven't ever followed the HRRR for tropical cyclones before, so don't have a good feel for how well it does for short-term track forecasting. It will be interesting to watch, though. We'll know in a few hours!

I saw that. That's exactly what I was seeing and asking because it seems to just track it west along the coast. Didn't know how much weight the rapid refresh would have in determining a system like this but I know it's pretty spot on for wondering what the radar should like like a few hours ahead!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Wow if the euro and hwrf are correct this thing will be sitting on top of se/s central LA for 48 hrs. Not good at all. Wonder what the 18z gfs will show?

[gboudx]

If that occurred, it would be in-line with the motion the GFS has shown since late last week; approaching the SELA coast, then meandering it westward along the coastline.

[HouTXmetro]

The last few runs of the HRRR have been showing a pronounced southwest wobble to begin sometime this afternoon, causing Isaac to parallel the coast rather than continuing NW to landfall. I haven't ever followed the HRRR for tropical cyclones before, so don't have a good feel for how well it does for short-term track forecasting. It will be interesting to watch, though. We'll know in a few hours!

Can someone provide a link to the HRRR model?

[Wthrman13]

The last few runs of the HRRR have been showing a pronounced southwest wobble to begin sometime this afternoon, causing Isaac to parallel the coast rather than continuing NW to landfall. I haven't ever followed the HRRR for tropical cyclones before, so don't have a good feel for how well it does for short-term track forecasting. It will be interesting to watch, though. We'll know in a few hours!

Can someone provide a link to the HRRR model?

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr

[gboudx]

Can someone provide a link to the HRRR model?

I use this website. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/

[LSU2001]

I would like to see it as well
Tim

[Shawee]

question: Does anyone else think that the stalled front N. of us will have any bearing on possible intensification (or hopefully lack thereof) or direction or if this plays into the NHC track holding steady versus what some of the latest models trend?

I'd say it does. He kind of has to wait for the front to let him pass, which allows him more time over water to intensify and dictates a W motion because the door to the N would be shut by the front.

Thanks! I thought it could still be a possible player. Maybe a high will come nudge it (and it's dryness) down for us.
Ntxw made a great point also (in discussions):
HPC maps show the front in the SE is retreating and washing out. His hope for going north is the trough digging in the northeast extending enough south otherwise High over the central plains takes over - west.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfclo ... _test.html

[Wthrman13]

Can someone provide a link to the HRRR model?

I use this website. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/

Yep, another (probably better) way to get to the same place. I've just got ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr burned into my neurons

In any case, I'll be keeping an eye on the runs this afternoon!

[HouTXmetro]

Can someone provide a link to the HRRR model?

I use this website. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/

Which is the link to the animation. I'm totally lost on that website. Don't know what to click.

[DonWrk]

go here for loops http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/reflectivity.cgi