ATL: DORIAN - Models

[tarheelprogrammer]

The further south this stays, the greater chance that it misses everyone according to the models. The main movement that matters is how far west this storm gets. If it stalls further SE it should mean the further NW it needs to go to make landfall. If a MET can chime in that would be great.

[chris_fit]

[funster]

So slow... Three days and still just off the east coast of northern Florida.

[sma10]

The further south this stays, the greater chance that it misses everyone according to the models. The main movement that matters is how far west this storm gets. If it stalls further SE it should mean the further NW it needs to go to make landfall. If a MET can chime in that would be great.

Not a met, but i dont think this is true. Because the ensemble runs that hint at a more west or wsw movement are the ones that take the storm inland

[boca]

Will their be anymore west shifts because someone earlier said the trough isn’t digging in yet and the pressure NW or Dorian was at 592?

[Blown Away]

it will be south of this GFS later today ...

yeah it doesn't appear it will make those GFS plots anytime soon.

12z GFS says Dorian will be @77.47 in 12 hours, unless Dorian slows down I think he will pass that point earlier. Correct?

[norva13x]

Will their be anymore west shifts because someone earlier said the trough isn’t digging in yet and the pressure NW or Dorian was at 592?

As always with Dorian, who knows. It's possible if they are indeed underestimating the ridge still. The models seem convinced Dorian should be going wnw but it isn't. A lot is up in the air.

[DestinHurricane]

Its my understanding that Dorian is a bit south of most guidance, correct?

[MrJames]

GFS makes landfall in NC. Legacy GFS stays offshore.

[funster]

Some unpleasant weather for Virgina's coast and maybe the Mid-Atlantic on this run but a ways off because of Dorian's slothy slowness.

[tolakram]

[SouthFLTropics]

Anyone have the 12z UKMET?

[Blown Away]

12z GFS puts Dorian N of Grand Bahama in 24 hours... That's the trend to watch N or S of Grand Bahama...

[SEASON_CANCELED]

https://i.imgur.com/7BVHJbg.gif

[MrJames]

12z UKMet big shift east.

[sma10]

https://i.imgur.com/fIc0YO1.jpg
12z GFS puts Dorian N of Grand Bahama in 24 hours... That's the trend to watch N or S of Grand Bahama...

Or on top of

[SEASON_CANCELED]

12z UKMet big shift east.

https://i.imgur.com/rroYsYN.gif

Thank goodness!!!

All models now are off florida

[chris_fit]

CMC @24 trend much slower

[Jevo]

Some unpleasant weather for Virgina's coast and maybe the Mid-Atlantic on this run but a ways off because of Dorian's slothy slowness.

The award for loosest version of the word unpleasant goes to.... Thank you for the laugh in this madness

[Aric Dunn]

one thing is for certain if we want to believe the models.. we better see a north of west motion... something to indicate the models are right.... like right now..