Pacific Northwest Weather

[snow_wizzard]

The thing that really made that tornado noteworthy was the fact it hit a house. That part of it is rare, although just random chance.

The widespread severe weather over the past two days is indeed rare. I remember this kind of stuff in June and July of 1993. That year is proving to be something of a crystal ball. On the other hand some of the global indexes are not the same. Rather interesting.

Edit: For what it's worth...the daily rainfall, at Sea - Tac, for yesterday is now from 2005. The daily rainfall record for today is from 1968. Like I have said, I am watching that year!

[TT-SEA]

Yes... 1993 is an interesting match. I have been looking at that year all along.

The current wet pattern in the Northwest and the Midwest is just like 1993.

And the other similarities like a VERY dry February in Seattle and a VERY wet spring in Southern California all match well.

Remember the following winter had only .7 of snow in Bellingham. Less than an inch!! If we continue along the path of 1993... you can probably expect we will have a warmer winter than that year. We have had 12 more years of global warming.

I still think we will see a cold period at the end of December (nothing shocking... but cold) and the rest of the winter will be warmer and drier than normal. Pretty bland overall.

Thats just my guess. But I know this trend towards warmer weather across the entire Earth is VERY real and undeniable.

[TT-SEA]

I am telling you... throw out 1968. Its not a match at all. Trust me.

Yes... we had a wet summer that year. But it was caused by other factors.

And Southern California had a VERY wet winter in 1968-69 that followed a VERY dry winter in 1967-68. We are completely out of phase with 1968.

We will deviate from 1968 very soon.

[R-Dub]

Sure it was weak, but the fact that it was only a half mile from my house, really makes it exciting!!!

NWS just did a update to the tornado info...............

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
720 PM PDT THU MAY 19 2005...CORRECTION

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0750 PM TORNADO 5 W ARLINGTON 48.18N 122.25W
05/18/2005 F1 SNOHOMISH WA NWS STORM SURVEY

TORNADO WITH A WIDTH OF 10 YARDS TOUCHED DOWN MIDDLE OF
LAKE KI AND PROCEEDED ONSHORE - TOTAL LENGTH 1/4 MILE AND
1 MINUTE ON THE GROUND. SNAPPED A CEDAR TREE ABOUT 6 FEET
OFF OF THE GROUND THAT COLLAPSED A CAR PORT AND FELL ON
A ROOF. TOTAL DAMAGE ESTIMATED $6000. NO FATALITIES OR
INJURIES REPORTED.

[TT-SEA]

Yes... exciting for a few people.

But it was about the smallest tornado possible.

[snow_wizzard]

Come on TT! I cannot believe you are not impressed by the weather we have seen the past two days. If you are not impressed now you never will be! You should have seen the wild weather we had in Covington today also. Sometimes you are a wet blanket.

The real paradox about 1993 and 1978 is that 1993 was a better match locally, but 1978 was a better match globally. I still remember how cold the winter of 78 - 79 was! All I can say, is that I am 90% convinced this is the year. There are many signs this will be the coldest winter in many many years. Even a moderately cold winter would achieve that....

[TT-SEA]

I said this was fun.

Although coming from the Midwest... this is VERY tame.

I just do not get that excited about severe weather around here. This climate is extremely gentle. I love the rain and the beauty of the sky though.

And yes... 1978 and 1993 are both close matches. So is 1884. Your analysis is excellent. You are also an awesome resource on historical events. I can't imagine not having you on this board to bounce ideas around.

Again... this winter will likely feature a cold period for maybe 10 days. Other than that... the odds are STRONGLY in favor of warmer and maybe even drier.

Sadly... I think this winter will be a major frustration for you. Particularly since you are setting your expectations so high. You will finally settle with some lows around 20 degrees under clear skies followed by highs in the upper 30's. You will say its really cold and be somewhat happy. This period will be followed by an over-running snow event that will rapidly melt away in a Pineapple Express. And then we will transition to a warm pattern for the rest of the winter. Just an opinion... but I really believe this will be the case.

In the end... you will say the cold period was worth the wait and proves how bitter our weather can be.

Meanwhile... Minneapolis will have days on end of lows near -20 and highs near zero!!

To be truly happy... global warming is going to force you move to a colder climate. And I am not talking about Palmer.

[TT-SEA]

Looking at the maps... the key to this active and wet period is the huge high pressure that has FINALLY anchored itself over the Southwest.

The lack of this high has allowed storms to move south of Seattle all winter long.

Its back and so is our wet weather.

[TT-SEA]

One more point... I will admit there is always the possibility of a cold winter. Even in this period of rapid global warming.

Although its less likely than in years past.

[TT-SEA]

Snow_Wizzard... have you looked at 1969 rather than 1968??

1969 featured the above-mentioned VERY wet spring in Southern California and a very wet April-May combo is Seattle.

Also... we were coming off a weak El Nino winter.

And the wild pattern this past January was said to be strikingly similar to January of 1969. With the minor exception that this year it failed to produce tons of snow in Seattle. But that goes with the warmer winter trend that changes the results of past patterns.

I think 1969 is a much better match. And the winter of 1969-70 fits my above prediction for the coming winter pretty well with regard to one moderately cold period in an otherwise warm season.

[andycottle]

Hey all. Haven`t looked at the weather tonight, but from NWS AFD this evening...looks like tomorrow will be a repeat of today. Numerorus showers/thunder storms and sunny periods...which will further aid in the T-Storm development. -- Andy

[snow_wizzard]

TT...You need to amend your statement about our weather being gentle, to say it is gentle MOST OF THE TIME. It is not always that mild. If you could have seen the thunderstorms in July 1993 you would have been very impressed. I am also reminded of a hail storm that I witnessed just south of Woodinville a few years ago. I actually storm chased that one! In the heart of the storm my car was being pounded by quarter sized hail hail stones! Not only was the hail large, but it was coming down at an unimaginable rate. That storm was bad enough that car dealers had to sell hail damaged cars at a cut price. Then you have the Columbus Day storm...the greatest extratropical storm to ever strike the United States. January 1880 saw one of the greatest large scale lowland snowstorms to ever strike the United States. That storm dropped 76 inches, in three days, on the hill between Seattle and Lake Washington and depths exceeded 6 feet in the outlying areas. Or how about those mountain wave wind events (which they do not get in the midwest by the way). I clearly remember the almost incomprehensible damage that I saw just east of here in December 2003!

Those are just a few cases that show this climate does have its own "dark side".

By the way...the three day total for snow in January 1880 exceeds the greatest MONTHLY totals of almost any US city!

[andycottle]

Moderatly raining here again...

[snow_wizzard]

By the way...1969 has a lot of problems. First of all last winter was nothing like 1968 - 69. That one was so bitter cold for such long period of time. The winter was not dry (no dry month like February). The SOI did not display any of the extreme variability we have seen this year. I suppose there have been some matches since February, but it has at least as many problems as 1968. I think they should both be watched, but my bet is we will more closely follow 68 for the remainder of the year.

[snow_wizzard]

The rainfall total for April and the first 2/3 of May in Covington is now up to a soggy 8.69 inches. Man has it been wet!

[R-Dub]

Auctually TT the smallest Tornado possible is a F-0

[TT-SEA]

All good points.

But if you guys experienced just one solid line of severe storms in the Midwest... it would put our thunderstorms in perspective.

On a scale of 1 to 10.... our worst "severe"weather is a 1 or maybe 2.

There is nothing like having it get literally as black as night (sometimes the sky would even turn green)... having the civil defense sirens wailing... having to run to the basement... constant lightning and deafening thunder... then 80 mph straight-line winds... golf-ball sized hail... and truly amazing rain.

One night in July of 1987 we had 14 inches of rain 6 hours.

Our current weather is fun... but if we had anything close to what the Midwest gets routinely you guys would pass out from excitement.

[andrewr]

Just getting my first rolls of thunder now. Looks like a moderate cell is moving through the Tacoma area and I may get the eastern edge of it. Yesterday I lost power for about 30 minutes so lets see what this cell can do.

[andycottle]

Hey Andrew...we too had lost power for a few seconds Wednesday afternoon, thing about 3:30pm or so. And it was due to gusty winds.

No T-Storms over me as of yet. Though there was nice convective cumulus clouds that came over my area a little while ago. Right now at 12:05pm we have mostly skies with a temp of 56. -- Andy

[weather girl]

Looking for an analog year is making me crazy. I'm going to stop after this.

I know you guys like 93. But I've been looking at 77 and 81. Both years we were coming out of El Ninos. I've just been looking at temperatures, thouogh, and haven't really scrutinized anything else. The one thing about 77 is that it wasn't wet in California. If either 77 or 81 are good analogs, though, we're in for some big time heat latter this summer.

Ok. I'll be honest: I'm looking for somebody to talk me out of 77 or 81. Thoughts, anyone?