CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Ivanhater]

Get ready Texas!

[Aric Dunn]

GFDL .. loop from the FSU site

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation


takes a turn NNW

[Brent]

There's a trend and it is NOT good.

[Duddy]

These models are all over the place....no agreement!!

I know I hate it!

Makes me want to wait until Sunday morning to see the models.

[PTPatrick]

its always harder too, error wise, predicting a hit on a north south oriented coast like the FL East coast or tex...a little error goes such a LOOOONNNNNGGGGG way.

[TTheriot1975]

Ok I take that back...UKMET and GFDL....hmmmmm...why so big of a change with GFS?

[Stormcenter]

We all know this is NOT going to be the eventual track.
I cannot recall any model hitting on the nail this far out.
Remember this still has yet to track through the Carribean.
There are just way too many things that can change from now
until whenever landfall is.

[vaffie]

If these tracks become more constant, the entirety of South Louisiana, and most of SE Texas will be on the road by Tuesday.

A lot sooner than Tuesday my friend. Take a look at that post of the GFDL--that's where the storm will be on 1 am Wednesday. The track will become pretty certain on Sunday night/Monday morning. People will be leaving Monday for sure.

[Stormcenter]

If these tracks become more constant, the entirety of South Louisiana, and most of SE Texas will be on the road by Tuesday.

A lot sooner than Tuesday my friend. Take a look at that post of the GFDL--that's where the storm will be on 1 am Wednesday. The track will become pretty certain on Sunday night/Monday morning. People will be leaving Monday for sure.

Assuming it doesn't slow down.

[tailgater]

If these tracks become more constant, the entirety of South Louisiana, and most of SE Texas will be on the road by Tuesday.

A lot sooner than Tuesday my friend. Take a look at that post of the GFDL--that's where the storm will be on 1 am Wednesday. The track will become pretty certain on Sunday night/Monday morning. People will be leaving Monday for sure.

Yeah and 160 knts on the northern tip of the Yucatan

[Aric Dunn]

Conditions at

2007.08.17 0600 UTC
Wind from the NE (040 degrees) at 16 MPH (14 KT) gusting to 29 MPH (25 KT) (direction variable)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Temperature 80 F (27 C)
Dew Point 71 F (22 C)
Relative Humidity 74%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.68 in. Hg (1005 hPa)
ob TFFF 170600Z 04014G25KT 350V070 9999 BKN016 BKN040 27/22 Q1005 TEMPO 3000 SHRA OR TSRA=



winds going up. and pressure fell 2mb in the last hour
its crunch time.. !!!!!

['CaneFreak]

agreed

[MWatkins]

Wow the UKMET is way right of the previous track...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tro ... wtnt80.txt

Looks like NOGAPS is the only significant southerly hold out between the big 4. Look for a slight northward adjustment by the NHC in the next package...

MW

[Aric Dunn]

Conditions at

2007.08.17 0600 UTC
Wind from the NE (040 degrees) at 16 MPH (14 KT) gusting to 29 MPH (25 KT) (direction variable)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Temperature 80 F (27 C)
Dew Point 71 F (22 C)
Relative Humidity 74%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.68 in. Hg (1005 hPa)
ob TFFF 170600Z 04014G25KT 350V070 9999 BKN016 BKN040 27/22 Q1005 TEMPO 3000 SHRA OR TSRA=

pressure fell 2 MB in the last hour




its coming .. very little time now about an hour till the hurricane force winds arrive.. they are going to come fast..

[vaffie]

WRF--905 mb at Cozumel at 120 hours moving at about 300 degrees. At that rate the eye would only spend about 3 or 4 hours over land.

GFDL--912 mb at Cozumel at 120 hours moving at about 300 hours. Probably only spending 2 hours over land, but for some reason GFDL gets hurt more than WRF by the same land interaction, and ""struggles"" at 920-2 mb over the Gulf...

[bvigal]

Hiya Sanibel! Hope you are right!! Here's what I was looking at that caused me concern about FDF: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ft.html
Check out this loop - and click to activate the position plots and then zoom in. You'll see it looks like center of storm due to cross over next plotted position dead-on. (Those forecasters are truly amazing) Draw a line from that position to the next one, and it crosses right over bay/harbor on the west coast where Fort de France is located.

[Duddy]

Wow the UKMET is way right of the previous track...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tro ... wtnt80.txt

Looks like NOGAPS is the only significant southerly hold out between the big 4. Look for a slight northward adjustment by the NHC in the next package...

MW

Crap, that takes it right to me!

[vaffie]

Wow the UKMET is way right of the previous track...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tro ... wtnt80.txt

Looks like NOGAPS is the only significant southerly hold out between the big 4. Look for a slight northward adjustment by the NHC in the next package...

MW

UKMET makes landfall just north of Matagorda Bay. Wow, I think, we're getting a consensus now!

[Jagno]

I like nogaps and would like to ignore the rest......PLEASE!:)

[vaffie]

UKMET animated.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation