ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Steve]

>>anyone...,....

It tells you in the discussion

[HURAKAN]

Charley also crossed the narrowest part of Cuba. Fay is likely to move over flat but a longer part of the terrain.

[capepoint]

Holy Crap.....the 5pm GFDL is almost the exact path that I envisioned and outlined on here at 430, and pretty close to the BAMM. Maybe I better change my forcast.

[lbvbl]

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php?forecast=plotsystemmodels&storms=&region=NT&year=&eventnum=6&hwvstormid=6&usemap=AUTO2&zoom=2&size=&config=tropsys640x480,tropimap_all&pn=1&ptm=

wow... looking at the latest tracks, NHCs track is now more on the western side rather than the middle as it has been. And the GFDL shifted even more to the East and interestingly enough, has it hitting SE FL as a Cat 1.

[CrazyC83]

Should be noted here that this track is close to Charley and we all remember the way Charley altered its attack approach by only a small amount but it made a huge world of difference to the landfall zone, should the same happen here then somewhere could get a surprise.

So true. If the line is pointed to Tampa, a 1 degree wobble would send it in at Fort Myers to the right or Cedar Key to the left.

[caneman]

Seems as though the center is consolidating around the convective burst around 19.4 75.1. Recon shows it getting more defined now.

You beat me to it, overall the orginizational structure overall is looking better. I hope it doesn't do a bomb out in these warm waters like Charley did.

[gatorcane]

Fay getting organized this afternoon. My guess is this is NOT and Ernesto repeat....

[SkeetoBite]

As mentioned by others, it is important to look at the cone in the official forecast map provided by the National Hurricane Center. We prepared the image below for Storm2K back in 2006 as a tool to better educate folks on what the cone means:

[johngaltfla]

Should be noted here that this track is close to Charley and we all remember the way Charley altered its attack approach by only a small amount but it made a huge world of difference to the landfall zone, should the same happen here then somewhere could get a surprise.

I happen to agree. There are a lot of folks that live on the West Coast of Florida who remember how "lucky" they were and this means that everyone from Marco Island up to the Big Bend need to watch for a last minute turn. My larger concern is sudden intensification.

[Aric Dunn]

Seems as though the center is consolidating around the convective burst around 19.4 75.1. Recon shows it getting more defined now.

would say so .. 57kt FL winds...

that supports at least 50mph

[Noles2006]

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php?forecast=plotsystemmodels&storms=&region=NT&year=&eventnum=6&hwvstormid=6&usemap=AUTO2&zoom=2&size=&config=tropsys640x480,tropimap_all&pn=1&ptm=

wow... looking at the latest tracks, NHCs track is now more on the western side rather than the middle as it has been. And the GFDL shifted even more to the East and interestingly enough, has it hitting SE FL as a Cat 1.

When you consider that the GFDL is more than likely not a very good solution... NHC is right in the middle of the guidance...

[gatorcane]

and another thing to note, if Fay deepens more quickly as it appears it may be trying to do expect some more right shifts in the models as fay attempts to move poleward and "finds" the weakness more easily.

looks like the GFDL and some of the other models that had Fay deepening fairly quickly may just be right...we'll have to see.

[NEXRAD]

notice the ULL in the last couple hours to Fay's west , seems it's movement (on the east side anyway) has slowed down, are the promet's thinking this could eventually provide a bit more shear over fay (maybe tonite or so)? and is the location this ULL sets up playing a role in when fay turns more northward?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

I've been monitoring the upper low during the last few days and the upper feature has definitely slowed its westward motion. In the upper levels, the low is working in-tandem with ridging to the east to create a flow channel that extends from Eastern Cuba northwest to around Andros Island. I've been monitoring for this upper feature to have a greater mid-level reflection and for whether it interacts with upper level energy farther north that is progressing along the trough axis across North Florida. I'm thinking it may be possible that the upper low assists with trough deepening farther north, but that's merely a thought at this point.

- Jay

[dixiebreeze]

Fay almost in view now on the GOM IR Floater. Take a look at the tropical points:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html

[txwatcher91]

:uarrow:

and another thing to note, if Fay deepens more quickly as it appears it may be trying to do expect some more right shifts in the models....

looks like the GFDL and some of the other models that had Fay deepening fairly quickly may just be right...we'll have to see.

The farther west models are based on a Cat 1, the GFDL and HWRF both show around a 960mb cane, probably a Cat 2 or maybe 3, and the Euro shows a strong system too, not sure how strong but it looks like a Cat 2 and is further east also, so the quicker this strengthens, the further east it goes.

[lbvbl]

:uarrow:

and another thing to note, if Fay deepens more quickly as it appears it may be trying to do expect some more right shifts in the models as fay attempts to move poleward and "finds" the weakness more easily.

looks like the GFDL and some of the other models that had Fay deepening fairly quickly may just be right...we'll have to see.

What do u mean by deepening? Sorry, I am very much an amateur when it comes to this stuff.

[tampastorm]

Should be noted here that this track is close to Charley and we all remember the way Charley altered its attack approach by only a small amount but it made a huge world of difference to the landfall zone, should the same happen here then somewhere could get a surprise.

I happen to agree. There are a lot of folks that live on the West Coast of Florida who remember how "lucky" they were and this means that everyone from Marco Island up to the Big Bend need to watch for a last minute turn. My larger concern is sudden intensification.

But remember after landfall Charley went to the east coast of FL, in this senario no matter where landfall is Tampa area should be affected in some way.

[gatorcane]

I mean as Fay's overall structure becomes more vertically stacked from the low-level center upwards into the atmosphere into the mid-levels and then upper-levels....she may very well start interacting with the weakness in the ridge off in the EGOM (and soon over FL peninsula) thus moving her more northward quicker.

[robbielyn]

I just read 5pm disc...its not particularly interesting. I think some of it was copy and pasted from 11

[marciacubed]

It shifted east a tad at the end of the run.. see link

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

this is one of my fav links as it depicts the history of the NHC forecast plots..

great link thanks