Global model runs discussion

[HurricaneDREW92]

Latest Gfs Vort Model:


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[cycloneye]

12z GFS appears loaded early. Let's see how it ends.

[Decomdoug]

It appears that there is starting to be a lot more moisture crossing Africa.

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[Hurricaneman]

If the models are correct it looks like the potential Caribbean system would be similar to the monsoon trough large systems that take a while to develop, and the eastern Atlantic system coming off of Africa at about 120hrs seems like it has potential to develop

Edit: 12zGFS has a tropical storm hitting Tampa at 9 days from the Caribbean so the Caribbean needs to be monitored in the coming week

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

12z GFS at 228 hours.

[cycloneye]

End of 12z GFS run. Big fish.

[Blown Away]

Wow, a global model developing a tropical system. Almost forgot what that looks like...

[Fego]

GFS shows a tc developing in august 15 but at the end, that system ends far away from the Caribbean and Bermudas.

[Stormlover2012]

Can't trust a model run thAt late atleast it's showing something though

[CalmBeforeStorm]

GFS shows a tc developing in august 15 but at the end, that system ends far away from the Caribbean and Bermudas.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... imageSize=
At the end of the run the pattern suggests that the storm would be driven west.

[crownweather]

End of 12z GFS run. Big fish.

http://oi44.tinypic.com/29wn7ea.jpg

GFS model usually is notorious for curving storms way too early. I suspect in reality we should see a further west track given overall pattern of strong high pressure driving systems westward.

[ronjon]

I'm a little more concerned right now with the western Caribbean system that might develop in 5-7 days. 12z GFS a little stronger. Let's see what the CMC and NAVGEM do at 12z.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Agreed, as the forecasted pattern now stands any homebrew (GOM, SE Coast & Western Caribbean Sea) would likely be drawn north.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Steve H.]

Please stop with the fish comments when we have nothing yet. Ths GFS is intially out to see with most systems coming off Africa.

[cycloneye]

So the Euro continues to

[Alyono]

So the Euro continues to

why do you even mention the ECMWF when it is well known that it is worth less than the paper its output is printed upon when it comes to genesis?

[ROCK]

12Z NAVGEM...same run over and over again....hurricane thru the Yucatan channel...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[cycloneye]

So the Euro continues to

why do you even mention the ECMWF when it is well known that it is worth less than the paper its output is printed upon when it comes to genesis?

Is one of the main reliable global models that the NWS offices and NHC uses.

[ROCK]

So the Euro continues to

why do you even mention the ECMWF when it is well known that it is worth less than the paper its output is printed upon when it comes to genesis?

if not the EURO then what? the GFS? ha.... they are both just as bad this year.....

[ROCK]

12Z FIM9 update.....

still sniffing something at 168hr near the Yucatan

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/displayMapLocal ... perimental FIM Model Fields&maxFcstLen=336&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=244&adtfn=1