Texas Winter 2021-2022

[wxman22]

HRRR actually had this narrow band pretty well outlined yesterday (especially showing up near the college station region) so while not too surprised, it's nice to see it produce more than just some light sleet and a few flurries (DFW region) for our friends further south today. While I wouldn't use "storm" by any means to describe this (technically speaking of course), it's definitely an event anytime you can get snow (and some big flakes) to fall down into the Brazos Valley in the mid to late afternoon with surface temps in the low 50's just to the southwest with the sun out. Pretty cool.

I will say the Houston NWS twitter feed is like...."snow falling where today"...uhhh??? Lol.

The ICON hinted at this for several days now,even though it was a bit overdone on some runs.Its been doing a good job this month.

[wxman57]

Winter will be losing its grip over the U.S. over the next couple of weeks. Chances of snow will be turning to rain and thunderstorms. Temperatures in Houston will be approaching 80 later in the month. Best thing about the coming of spring is that it leads to summer.

[Iceresistance]

12z CMC & Euro is trying to produce snow across Oklahoma Next Wednesday to Thursday.

[dhweather]

Wednesday evening into Thursday, a negatively tilted trough sweeps through Texas with dew points in the low 60's, CAPE in the 400-700 range, a 100kt jet streak and 40-50kt of LLJ all leads to the potential for severe weather. Something to keep an eye on.

[Iceresistance]

The 0z CMC went absolutely crazy with the snow across most of Oklahoma.

[TheProfessor]

I just got NAM'd twice lol. That 6z run though. lol. Trend has definitely been back to a stronger system. 0z EFI was looking good. We'll see if that trend continues. As long as I get some good QPF, I"ll be happy.

[Iceresistance]

I just got NAM'd twice lol. That 6z run though. lol. Trend has definitely been back to a stronger system. 0z EFI was looking good. We'll see if that trend continues. As long as I get some good QPF, I"ll be happy.

I also get NAMed, with Severe Storms & then some snow.

(On the Bolded): I did not know that model existed . . . Unless it's a different name for a model I've seen before.

[wxman22]

I just got NAM'd twice lol. That 6z run though. lol. Trend has definitely been back to a stronger system. 0z EFI was looking good. We'll see if that trend continues. As long as I get some good QPF, I"ll be happy.

I also get NAMed, with Severe Storms & then some snow.

(On the Bolded): I did not know that model existed . . . Unless it's a different name for a model I've seen before.

Its the "Extreme Forecast Index" from the Euro Ensemble.

[snowballzzz]

Man, this "Winter" flew by (like it always does). Looking forward to Spring - lets skip summer - then fall.

[Haris]

Winter ain’t done yet per the euro

[TropicalTundra]

Winter ain’t done yet per the euro

Yeah end of Euro looks like an ice storm and maybe flurries behind it for metroplex folks. Looks a hell of a lot like the storm we had at the start of the month.

[gpsnowman]

Winter ain’t done yet per the euro

Yeah end of Euro looks like an ice storm and maybe flurries behind it for metroplex folks. Looks a hell of a lot like the storm we had at the start of the month.

Flashes of Feb 2003 for those old enough to remember.

[Texas Snow]

I hope we see some trending towards the Euro as I really need one last hit of winter. Went running at lunch at 70 degrees. Almost died. Don't know how I survive here in the summers

[HockeyTx82]

Winter ain’t done yet per the euro

Yeah end of Euro looks like an ice storm and maybe flurries behind it for metroplex folks. Looks a hell of a lot like the storm we had at the start of the month.

For when?

[Brent]

Is winter still cancelled? just curious

It's mid week next week

[txtwister78]

I think you have some contradiction with the MJO (NCEP had it going into phase 4 and 5 later this month) which would definitely be the signal for game over for winter, but now you have the Euro with the EPO going back to negative which would favor some cold down the plains BUT how much cold and how far south is suspect. Still 220+ hours out and so as usual with that in mind, probably a nothing burger from the Euro. My guess is we see some glancing blows of cold but with a quick rebound of warm air as long as the other teleconnections remain as currently forecast.

Looks like the severe weather risk for DFW is minimal and based on model trends today with the track of the low further north into central Oklahoma which might increase severe weather risk there but rob that region of snow ironically with the track (better odds across northern Oklahoma). Hopefully we can get into a more active pattern going forward with rain as much of the state needs it.

[Snowman67]

:D Sleeted here lightly and then huge flakes coming down now. NE brazos county. Wow was not expecting

Was at my nieces wedding in College Station Saturday. During the ceremony I start to see HUGE flakes of snow coming down. I couldn't believe it. Was not mentioned anywhere in any forecast that I looked at or in any NWS discussion that I had seen for that area.

[ElectricStorm]

A bit OT, but just wanted to take a moment and say how great everyone on this forum is. Great discussions here, even if we disagree with each other. Great admins and mods as well.

I say this because the owner of another forum I was a member of just went ballistic on everyone over the last few days simply because someone disagreed with him. Now there's been a mass exodus from there, which is a shame because it was a great place up until a few days ago.

So with that said, thanks everyone for making this a great place for weather discussion

[bubba hotep]

Ahhh yeah! But seriously, if we can get the MJO to propagate into P6/7 then I think we could see a winter wx event in early March. That is a pretty good phase space for a weakening Nina.

[TheProfessor]

Ahhh yeah! But seriously, if we can get the MJO to propagate into P6/7 then I think we could see a winter wx event in early March. That is a pretty good phase space for a weakening Nina.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022021418/gfs_asnow_scus_65.png

If the 18z GFS plays out y'all can have at it. That'll be more than enough snow for me this year lol. The 10 inches (for 10-1, 16 inches for Kuchera) would be enough to put us above average this year lol.