Florida Weather

[NDG]

SPC AC 280721

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0121 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2010

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...FLORIDA...
MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE TIMING OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FL PENINSULA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING JUST WEST OF THE FL PENINSULA LATE MONDAY NIGHT ON THE WRN
EDGE OF A 45 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INLAND
ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL FL TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET QUICKLY
CROSSES THE PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONG AT
THAT TIME...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY IN CNTRL FL
WITH THE 60+ F SFC DEWPOINTS WELL TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST. IN SPITE
OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IN NCNTRL FL TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SHIFT SWD INTO SCNTRL FL DURING THE DAY WITH
CONVECTION POSSIBLY ORGANIZING ALONG A COLD FRONT. USING THE CURRENT
MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE
FROM MELBOURNE SWD TO MIAMI WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAXIMIZE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR
MIAMI TUESDAY AT 21Z SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL WINDS...STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVORING
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS THE MAIN THREAT.

..BROYLES.. 02/28/2010

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

[O Town]

Omg, I am so excited about tomorrows forecast for near 70s. Our average high for March is 80 and I don't think I have seen that in months and months!! My body knows its time for spring but its just not happening, I know I have said it before but really I don't know these people north of me do it every year. And I better enjoy tomorrow for all its worth because on Tuesday we are getting the NEXT darn front!!!!! More rain and more cold.......Can I please start the garden already...and pack away the heaters????? With this extreme winter we are feeling here in C. FL this year I wonder how this H season will pan out? I forgot what hot humid feels like!

*OTown dreams of a sun burn and ice cold margaritas

[jinftl]

Per NWS Melbourne, the average high/low temp in Orlando on March 1 is 76/53. By March 31 that does jump to 81/58. Rest assured, it might not be this week, or even next week or the week after.....but Orlando (and the rest of the state) are getting closer every week to our 6-month stretch of temps around 90ish and dewpoints in the 70s. The only variety will be if it rains in particular spot from one day to the next.

I have some friends from Minneapolis and D.C. staying down her in Fort Lauderdale this week. I met them out yesterday afternoon at an outdoor bar and immediately apologized to them for the temps that were about 10 degrees below normal. They looked at me like I had 2 heads....it was a brilliantly sunny day with little wind and temps around 70 deg. Compared to the winter D.C. has had....i quickly stopped that apology!

Omg, I am so excited about tomorrows forecast for near 70s. Our average high for March is 80 and I don't think I have seen that in months and months!! My body knows its time for spring but its just not happening, I know I have said it before but really I don't know these people north of me do it every year. And I better enjoy tomorrow for all its worth because on Tuesday we are getting the NEXT darn front!!!!! More rain and more cold.......Can I please start the garden already...and pack away the heaters????? With this extreme winter we are feeling here in C. FL this year I wonder how this H season will pan out? I forgot what hot humid feels like!

*OTown dreams of a sun burn and ice cold margaritas

[WeatherLovingDoc]

My husband and son may take his spring break together in Florida Mar 29-April 3 time period.

Am I correct in encouraging South Florida for more chance of warmer and dryer weather, on the off chance this El-Nino affect lingers a tad more?

Anyone know some good tennis spots near Ft Lauderdale, Miami or on the Gulf. I'm trying to help weather wise.

Thank you very much,
WLD

[artist]

My husband and son may take his spring break together in Florida Mar 29-April 3 time period.

Am I correct in encouraging South Florida for more chance of warmer and dryer weather, on the off chance this El-Nino affect lingers a tad more?

Anyone know some good tennis spots near Ft Lauderdale, Miami or on the Gulf. I'm trying to help weather wise.

Thank you very much,

WLD

Delray Beach has a wonderful tennis center. Just a tad north of Ft. Lauderdale. Think they would love it. Stay in Ft. Lauderdale by the beach, then not too far to travel up to the tennis center. The ATP World Tour is going to be there from Mar. 20-28.
http://jcdsportsgroup.com/delray_beach_tennis/
I would say the weather should be about perfect. Now we are just on the edge of the low 70's a couple of days out of the week and mid to upper 60's the rest. What is funny is the weekends seem to be the warmest lately, which is a very good thing. I would think in a couple of more weeks it will be exactly perfect. And if you stay in Ft. Lauderdale, it will even be just a few degrees warmer. Hope they come here and enjoy!

ooops, just realized they will just miss the tour but there will be other doings there I am sure and they can play tennis there themselves.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Thank you very much Artist. Your suggestion sounds great and Ft. Lauderdale area offers much.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Thank you too very much, Jinftl. I appreciate your information and am happy it corresponds to my spouses and son's favorite activity: tennis outside. I'll actually be staying home with my high school senior who gets eight college decisions that week. She's succeeded academically, received five varsity sports letters, scored on national tests very well, and where ever she goes should be an attribute to the school. What more could a mom ask? I'm very fortunate.

As everyone, I am hopeful spring like weather will not be too delayed this year, what with the el nino and -AO. We're just across from Washington DC and the apparently not damaged cherry blossoms are thought to peak April 8th or so this year. A beautiful time usually in our nation's capital.


ps: hmm, maybe I imagined a post. This winter's got to end soon. WLD

[Sanibel]

This was a frigid winter here. I swear we've had only ten days of warm weather since January 1st. It's been frigid at night here this week but the March sun has been enough to cut the cold air in the daytime. Finally warming up starting tomorrow with a warm week all week coming up.

[Patrick99]

Yeah, the March sun has been great. I've been basking in it - even though the air itself has been slightly cool, the sun overpowers it. Friends don't believe me that it's actually very nice out in the sun, I have to implore them to go to the beach. It's the best beach weather....plenty of strong sun, but air not warm enough to sweat profusely.

The last half of January was pretty warm, then February it flip-flopped back. I didn't think it was absurdly cold in February, it was more the consistency of the chill - the trough just wasn't moving much....one storm after another following nearly the same path. Were under NW-WNW flow for pretty much the whole month.

Looks like we're definitely heading over to the warmer side of the ledger now. Extended forecast shows high temps in the 80s. March 29-April 3 you have a very good chance of warm weather. Not a slam dunk, but a very good chance.

[NDG]

Low to mid 80s are coming back to the Orlando area for the end of the week before a slight cool down next weekend.
It will be the first 80 deg wx that we will see in nearly 45 days, we went the whole month of February without reaching it, very unusual.
In fact, the average high for February was 64.1, a good 10 degrees below average! Brrr.

[jinftl]

You are 100% correct....that sun is strong and it is ideal sunbathing...and sunburn....weather. The early March sun is as strong as the late September/early October sun....we are talking about a late summer/early fall sun angle and with no clouds to interrupt the sun rays...and the temps not too hot to make being outside uncomfortable, it is a recipe for sun burns.

I agree that this winter will be known for its persistent cool weather. This may come as a surprise, but there have been more record high temperature records tied or broken in Miami for the Dec-Jan-Feb period than record low temperatures this season:

From NWS Miami:

Record High Max
Dec 9 - 87
Dec 10 - 89
Dec 15 - 85
Jan 22 - 86

Record Low Min
Jan 10 - 35
Jan 11 - 36

Yeah, the March sun has been great. I've been basking in it - even though the air itself has been slightly cool, the sun overpowers it. Friends don't believe me that it's actually very nice out in the sun, I have to implore them to go to the beach. It's the best beach weather....plenty of strong sun, but air not warm enough to sweat profusely.

The last half of January was pretty warm, then February it flip-flopped back. I didn't think it was absurdly cold in February, it was more the consistency of the chill - the trough just wasn't moving much....one storm after another following nearly the same path. Were under NW-WNW flow for pretty much the whole month.

Looks like we're definitely heading over to the warmer side of the ledger now. Extended forecast shows high temps in the 80s. March 29-April 3 you have a very good chance of warm weather. Not a slam dunk, but a very good chance.

[psyclone]

worst. winter. ever!!!
Just end it!

[JonathanBelles]

worst. winter. ever!!!
Just end it!

I must disagree! This is the first real winter I've had since moving to Florida, and I have loved it!

[psyclone]

you must be nuts. people come to florida to avoid "real winter". Our economic vitality (at least what's left of it) depends on it. Our crops are trashed, the fish are dead, our ornamentals are zapped and those unfortunate enough to spend their hard earned money to come here to avoid their version of "real winter" were on the receiving end of one freezing unpleasantry. that's a mighty high price to pay when we can least afford it. i am ready to hang up my jacket and enjoy some of those 80 degree sunny days before the summer sweat box arrives.

[jinftl]

No arguing that the economic impact of this winter....most of which came from the freeze event in January....is certainly not good for the state as a whole, and especially those who are in the agriculture industry. But, truth be told, there has not been a widerspread damaging freeze since January in the growing regions. There is a chunk of the year-round population that loves cold weather, though, 'the colder the better' they say. That is akin to folks up in the northeast u.s. who don't mind the 90+ deg stretches that usually last only for a few days at a time in the summer. It is not the 'norm', and when you have 6+ months of solid summer down here, loving the 'cold' is understandable.

For the tourists who came down this winter and experienced the cold weather, it is certainly less than desirable, but it is also important to point out that classic 'beach weather' and temps in the 80s are not the norm anywhere in the state in winter. Average winter temps are in the 60s in the north, around 70 in Orlando and Tampa, and in the 70s in Miami and Key West. Average lows are in the 40s north, around 50 in Orlando and Tampa and in the 50s in Miami. Only the Keys have average lows in the 60s during the winter.

Having had friends who came down here on vacation from D.C., experiencing abundant sunshine and temps even in the 60s and 70s (even 50s on those few days) was still a very pleasant escape from what they have been dealing with there. Nights in the 40s and 50s require a light jacket. Places like San Diego have boomed with folks looking for just that kind of weather year round. Still beats trudging through 2 feet of snow in a parka and boots and driving on icy-turn-disgusting brown streets! A great rule of thumb....if the weather is cold down here, just imagine what it is like to our north!

The upcoming week features temps reaching the 80 deg mark or higher from Tampa and Orlando south, which is actually a few degrees above normal. Nighttime temps will also reach above normal readings during the week. I am quite confident in saying we are approaching a very nice stretch of weather as we move through March and head into April. Cold snaps will become a distant memory, and I think a stretch of "Chamber of Commerce" weather awaits the state before the heat and humidity...and what could be an active hurricane season...arrive.

you must be nuts. people come to florida to avoid "real winter". Our economic vitality (at least what's left of it) depends on it. Our crops are trashed, the fish are dead, our ornamentals are zapped and those unfortunate enough to spend their hard earned money to come here to avoid their version of "real winter" were on the receiving end of one freezing unpleasantry. that's a mighty high price to pay when we can least afford it. i am ready to hang up my jacket and enjoy some of those 80 degree sunny days before the summer sweat box arrives.

[Sanibel]

Still chilly today towards afternoon in overcast. Got to 71* sun 65* shade.

[psyclone]

forecast lows for mid to late week around west central florida are running a full 10 degrees above the highs of a week ago. what a turn around. the gulf waters remain stunningly cold off the west coast of florida (i don't ever recall them so low so late in the year) so the potential for dense sea fog certainly exists later this week from around naples northward provided winds are light enough. and perhaps we'll get thundered on??!! bestill my beating heart:)

[Sanibel]

I can attest to those cold SST's. They are keeping a marine chill in the air even though they are promising mid-70's as temperatures. We are in the mid-60's and I think the SST contrast is causing an overcast bank that is keeping temperatures down.

[Patrick99]

Not having that problem on the East coast. Temperature already up to 73 at 9:30, under moderate easterly flow. Pleasant warm ocean air.

[Sanibel]

The cold finally broke. Mild and warm today.