ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Blown Away]

I don't know how old that image is, but I can't find that area. Maybe somebody can pinpoint that center again, I think that image may be old.

[Category 5]

>>This thing ain't dead yet ... convection is gradually improving over the low/mid level center. Nothing spectacular yet, but improving.

That's all I really wanted to say. Anyone saying "poof" "dead" "next" or conversely Cat 5, Doomsday, Death, etc. should have learned his or her lessons a long time ago. Now if by the end of the week, it's some shower activity plowing into Central America, fine. Until it's off the playing field, however, it is suspect. The smart post isn't the one saying yay or nay, it's the one suggesting patience and observation just in case.

JMO

Steve

Anyone who writes this off is a fool.

Remember Dolly?

The best thing to do here is to follow it closely and take it one day at a time IMO.

[bvigal]

Since they don't fly east of, what is it 58W? 59W? might as well schedule it, can always cancel if it fizzles. While I don't think it shows the short-term promise it did yesterday morning, it's still on a tropical wave, waters are warm, and it's mid-August - still a lot of ocean to go! I imagine we'll have some darn good squalls with lightning and gusty winds when it gets to the islands.

[Aric Dunn]

I don't know how old that image is, but I can't find that area. Maybe somebody can pinpoint that center again, I think that image may be old.

that looks about right...

[xironman]

I had it at about 13.5N 47W. Watch the loop and the bend of the clouds to it http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... quality=90

[Blown Away]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
ABNT20 KNHC 111732
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 825 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
REMAINS LIMITED AT THIS TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART

Depending on who you listen to, we could have (2) depressions or (2) poofs!

[Aric Dunn]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
ABNT20 KNHC 111732
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 825 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
REMAINS LIMITED AT THIS TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART

look whos back yah!!!!

[boca]

Their is still some spin to this and a little southerly inflow going towards the back edge of the cloud mass.It's not dead yet but it your looked better on Sunday.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

I don't know how old that image is, but I can't find that area. Maybe somebody can pinpoint that center again, I think that image may be old.

yeah, I made that image a few hours ago. Since that point, the possible "center" seems to have moved a little further W/NW.

[Sanibel]

Center relocation. 13.7-47


Look for refire tonight with that better center.

[Honeyko]

The smart post isn't the one saying yay or nay, it's the one suggesting patience and observation just in case.

Anyone who writes this off is a fool.

Wo-ah! ...I didn't have the balls to be that blunt during the 99L thread when people were posting the "It's dead, Jim!" pictures.

==//==

Hmm... Convection increasing in 92L's bands again--but we saw that yesterday at the same time too. Of positive note is the position of the cirrus "bow shock" out in front of the system; it appears to be advancing rather than buckling under the light southwesterly shear. I would gather, then, that the front off the southeast has weakened sufficiently and is no longer exhausting into the vicinity.

New forecast challenge is up.

[vbhoutex]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
ABNT20 KNHC 111732
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 825 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
REMAINS LIMITED AT THIS TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART

look whos back yah!!!!

I was wondering if anyone was going to notice that!!!!! Glad he is back!!! Now back to the invest.

[Stratosphere747]

11/1745 UTC 13.1N 47.0W TOO WEAK 92L
11/1145 UTC 11.4N 47.5W TOO WEAK 92L
11/0545 UTC 10.9N 46.6W T1.0/1.5 92L
10/2345 UTC 11.1N 46.2W T1.0/1.5 92L
10/1745 UTC 11.4N 43.6W T1.5/1.5 92L

[Ed Mahmoud]

I don't see a 92L GFDL run either track at Ohio State or on Penn State tropical page.


Soon to be dropped?

Edit to add

93L's GFDL run's coarser outer-grid likes 92L

[cycloneye]

18:00 UTC Best Track for 92L:

AL, 92, 2008081118, , BEST, 0, 124N, 484W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[KWT]

Hmmm looks like the various guides all once again differ about the center location and so like the other day any center must be weak and therefore hard to exactly locate.

[Blown Away]

I just can't tell if 92L is getting better or worse or holding it's own. This is a cross road for 92L, it appears to me the convection has begun to build around a center that I can't see on the visible, if the NHC says it's there than I guess it's there, likely very broad.

[bvigal]

18:00 UTC Best Track for 92L:

AL, 92, 2008081118, , BEST, 0, 124N, 484W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

hmmm, back to 25kt, and down 1 millibar.

[tolakram]

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It appears to be developing some semblance of spiral banding, which might indicate increased organization. Or it's an illusion.



The view from a distance shows this better.



Convection is on the increase at the moment (till I hit post and jinx it) which is a change from yesterday. I'd say the threat has increased, but not by much.

[KWT]

Does seem to be convection forming more to the north in what seems to be proto bands though not very well developed and still looks like being sheared somewhat. got a very strange look as well, elongated region of convection though indeed convection is now reforming back over the center of the system. Will be interesting to see how it holds.