Models Develop a Disturbance Near Florida (Is invest 90L)

[cycloneye]

A close-up of the circulation just north of the Cuban coast.

[Ivanhater]

12z Nogaps hangs the low in the Southern Gulf for quite some time before moving North toward SE Louisiana

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC develops the mid-level circulation north of Cuba:

Strangely, the CMC maintains the system's strength even being over land for several days (see end of run)

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian SE Louisiana as well

[RL3AO]

Invests up on NRL...


















none of them for the Atlantic though.

[KWT]

There does seem to be some sort of circulation there cycloneye, not sure what level thats at mind you, mid level perhaps?

[Evil Jeremy]

Invests up on NRL...

Lets lock and load!

none of them for the Atlantic though.

I hate you lol

[HURAKAN]

There does seem to be some sort of circulation there cycloneye, not sure what level thats at mind you, mid level perhaps?

I don't have any evidence to suggest that it's at the low levels but it seems to be well-established at least in the mid-levels. Shear is displacing the convection to the NE but new convection is developing near the center.

[Ivanhater]

May 17

[Aric Dunn]

ok i am seeing hints of a surface circ north of Cuba.. actually a little more defined than i thought it would be by now hhhmmm..... need to check observations but it looks like its trying to work down ..

very small though i guess i will have to watch it a little more..

[cpdaman]

ok i am seeing hints of a surface circ north of Cuba.. actually a little more defined than i thought it would be by now hhhmmm..... need to check observations but it looks like its trying to work down ..

very small though i guess i will have to watch it a little more..

at what longitude

[Ivanhater]

12z UKMET...stronger and SE Louisiana as well...

[Aric Dunn]

ok i am seeing hints of a surface circ north of Cuba.. actually a little more defined than i thought it would be by now hhhmmm..... need to check observations but it looks like its trying to work down ..

very small though i guess i will have to watch it a little more..

at what longitude

22.00° N 75.79° W

using the nasa conus site..
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

20 frames full zoom animations its pretty clear dang that was fast... i believe that the cuban land mass help a little..
at the X&Y coordinates on the bottom of the page

(X=372 Y=338)

[cycloneye]

Text of what Ivanhater posted about UKMET.

Mon May 18 14:04:14 EDT 2009



790

WTNT80 EGRR 181800


MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 18.05.2009

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 26.2N 79.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.05.2009 26.2N 79.5W WEAK
00UTC 20.05.2009 27.3N 80.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.05.2009 27.6N 83.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.05.2009 27.6N 87.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.05.2009 27.7N 87.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.05.2009 28.2N 88.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.05.2009 29.1N 89.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 23.05.2009 29.8N 89.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.05.2009 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

[Aric Dunn]

about right there.. when watching the loop try to differentiate from the mid level circ off to the ene of that small circ and you will see it form and move nw with the rest of the SE flow .. if that is the beginning of a surface low its really small and has some work to do .. but its there.

[KWT]

Lots of models do develop something from this broad region of instablity though exactly what area does develop will be interesting to see.

Aric, very interesting, does look at least like something to watch...

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWD:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND E GULF
THAT AT 1500 UTC EXTENDS FROM TITUSVILLE FLORIDA TO TAMPA BAY
AND ALONG 27N86W 24N89W CLIPPING THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
ALONG THE COAST TO 19N92W. ALSO...A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED TO
THE E OF THE FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR 28N84W TO 22N85W. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH
IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE GULF
N OF 24N E OF 88W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE W
ATLC. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SW GULF. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
ACROSS THE GULF DURING THE NEXT DAY...AS MANY OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE SHOWING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SW NORTH
ATLC AND SE GULF...EITHER EXTRATROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL...AND
MOVE GENERALLY N. THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...THOUGH COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL
INCREASE AROUND THE LOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 68W-77W...INCLUDING E CUBA...
HISPANIOLA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM EXUMA SOUND IN THE BAHAMAS ACROSS ERN CUBA TO
16N76W. THE ACTIVITY IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. DURING THE NEXT
DAY...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND MOVE N OF THE CARIBBEAN BY TUESDAY.

$$
HUFFMAN



http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[jlauderdal]

Text of what Ivanhater posted about UKMET.

Mon May 18 14:04:14 EDT 2009



790

WTNT80 EGRR 181800


MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 18.05.2009

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 26.2N 79.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.05.2009 26.2N 79.5W WEAK
00UTC 20.05.2009 27.3N 80.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.05.2009 27.6N 83.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.05.2009 27.6N 87.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.05.2009 27.7N 87.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.05.2009 28.2N 88.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.05.2009 29.1N 89.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 23.05.2009 29.8N 89.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.05.2009 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

something tells me that it wont be sitting off the fort lauderdale coast in 24 hours but hey ive been wrong before

[RL3AO]

Its up.

[cycloneye]

BREAKING NEWS=Is no joke WE HAVE INVEST 90L!!! The thread is now locked and now all can go to Active Storms forum to continue the discussions and analisis.