ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL

WHXX04 KWBC 291720
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 29

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.4 41.4 270./17.1
6 11.6 42.1 282./ 7.7
12 12.1 42.9 303./ 8.5
18 13.0 43.8 315./12.8
24 13.8 45.2 299./16.3
30 14.6 46.7 298./16.4
36 15.2 48.3 292./16.3
42 15.6 49.9 282./15.8
48 16.1 51.0 296./11.5
54 16.4 52.0 289./10.6
60 16.9 52.8 302./ 8.9
66 17.3 53.5 303./ 7.7
72 17.9 54.0 315./ 7.9
78 18.4 54.5 313./ 7.0
84 19.3 55.0 332./ 9.8
90 19.8 55.7 310./ 8.5
96 20.4 56.5 307./ 9.4
102 21.1 57.2 310./ 9.4
108 21.7 57.8 319./ 8.5
114 22.4 58.3 324./ 8.4
120 22.9 58.9 311./ 7.1
126 23.2 59.3 304./ 5.0

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[KWT]

GFDL still pulling this one northwards from the very start but will be interesting to see if that occurs. In terms of track if nothing else the CMC looks ok IMO.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 291734
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[KWT]

Convection trying to develop again with this one. I think whilst this one may not do anything the fact that it still isn't gaining much if any latitude mans we do still need to watch it. I suspect it'll be hard work for it to do anything but I cannot see a GFDL style track, its just way too quick on the NW motion it seems.

[storms NC]

She Has a lot of work to do just yet. She died out there a little. Maybe she will come back. Don't worry CYC I am reading just not posting. Have bad headache with Danny off shore. I call them my Low headaches. Had one for 3 days now.

[vbhoutex]

As Luis said, it still has plenty of moisture to work with and might even be able to tap in to the moisture to its' North eventually also. Convection is trying to fire and I think it is nearer to the circulation center than it has been so it is at least holding on as it heads for an almost certain date with the islands. Not too sure of the form it will be in when it reaches the islands, but I don't think the islands are going to avoid 94L. It has a lot of work to do to be a major impact, but I never say never especially about TC's.

[perk]

GFDL still pulling this one northwards from the very start but will be interesting to see if that occurs. In terms of track if nothing else the CMC looks ok IMO.

If the GFDL is gonna come close to verifying 94L should already be moving to the northwest, and it clearly is'nt. I agree also that the CMC looks more reasonable.

[cycloneye]

From 2 PM TWD.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N38W SW TO 8N43W WITH A 1011 MB LOW
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THIS WAVE/LOW IS WITHIN A VERY BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC ROTATION
AND IS UNDER UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY SHEAR. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 41W-44W. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-15N BETWEEN 41W-49W.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[vbhoutex]

Well,nobody cares about 94L,but 12z CMC makes it a hurricane and moves it close to the islands.

I'm watching. After Ike last year, I'm watching anything that could even remotely have a chance, no matter how slim, to enter the GOM.

Amen to that!!

[HUC]

Always watching all sytems coming in from the "cool"-sorry,the east,here in the beautiful Karukera island,butterfly over the sea. Heyè Luis,i'am somewhat old,and my first hurricane was 44 years ( Betsy 56...).
So how many invest since this time????

[Aric Dunn]

I still see a organizing system. the convection died last night in the areas on the periphery of the broad circulation. That convection was probably what was slowing down the development since the greatest convergence was in multiple areas associated with that convection. Notice what is happening now with the convection increasing right over the greatest vorticity and which is clearly where a tightening circ should be taking place. So the convection needed to die so that the new convection could consolidate more towards the a center. Everything seems to be in place for this to start developing more quickly now. We have plenty of moisture and the upper environment is slowly improving. This one of the most promising wave this year besides bill and this one posses more of a threat to the islands since its taking longer to develop than bill and is staying farther south.


notice the low level convergence now VS yesterday. it is much more concentrated and higher near the center of the broad circ.
NOW


yesterday

[Derek Ortt]

this is starting to follow the MM5 evolution to a T

the thing is becoming better organized, but closer to 15N. May be another reason why high-resolution, regional models are the way to go

[UpTheCreek]

She Has a lot of work to do just yet. She died out there a little. Maybe she will come back. Don't worry CYC I am reading just not posting. Have bad headache with Danny off shore. I call them my Low headaches. Had one for 3 days now.

I'm just the opposite......partly the reason I left sunny and DRY Southern California 7 years ago!

[cycloneye]

Derek,what you are saying is this has to get rid of the ITCZ to then take off right?

[Ivanhater]

looks like a nice ridge on the CMC, even stronger heights off the east coast, no trough hanging around for this one off the eastcoast.

[Derek Ortt]

its that the northern part of the vorticity is what becomes dominant. It is away from the ITCZ so that may be part of it. Also, may be farthr away from a low to mid level easterly jet

[cycloneye]

looks like a nice ridge on the CMC, even stronger heights off the east coast, no trough hanging around for this one off the eastcoast.

What is 12z NOGAPS showing?

[KWT]

That would be very interesting indeed Derek, I do see what seems to be a sharper part of the trough on the Vis imagery...and there is very small region of convection up around 13-14N but the best convergence is a good deal to the south as Aric's image is showing.

We shall see but I'm not convinced anything will form up there depsite the fact there does seem to be maybe some sort of sharpening...and if anything does form its a fair while away yet IMO...

[vbhoutex]

I was wondering in the amateur ramblings of my head if the proximity to the ITCZ was still an inhibiting factor. So if I am understanding what is being said that is somewhat correct?

[cycloneye]

In other words,here in the NE Caribbean,we have to pay attention to what 94L is doing because if it develops,it may get close.Thanks Derek.