Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[iorange55]

I don't quite understand it either, many of the mets around here states it will be to the west and south of dfw. Probably the track isn't certain at this time

There have been a few models now showing enough lift here to produce some snow, not a lot but some. I don't know why any met would say there is no chance for Dallas Friday. Too early to say especially since some of the models show enough lift for light snow, and most show at least flurries.

[KatDaddy]

I spent many years waiting for snow in the Houston area growing up. The first snow I remember was back in 1973. It snow about 3" in Pearland. After that not much through the early 80s. When the Arctic blast of 83 rolled across SE TX I thought I would finally see another decent snowfall but did not occur. I remember in the early 80s being up all night to see snow that almost cover the yard between 3 and 5 AM. By 7:30AM it was all gone. Fast-forward to 1985......the Houston forecast was amazing....4-6" snow forecasted. Well Houston missed out but SAT got 13". I pretty much gave hope after that event. Then along came 1989...a 2" snow regained my hope. Now on to recent years.....the great Christmas 2004 snow event. It was my modern day 1973 snowfall. An amazing event I will never forget. Then last year we had the December 2008 snow miracle. So many previous potential events I just knew we would see a good snow but never happened. Last Decemeber I thought no way. After all those years of hoping and watching for snow to the nth degree I get to experience 2 amazing snow events. Will Friday be the next real snow for SE TX? After all these years I will not hold my breath. If it does occur it will be historic for the earliest snowfall. I want another 1895 snowstorm.

[joshskeety]

Abilene Update...

Below 0 at 850mb now.. However, still just rain, which shows a layer lower than 5000 feet too warm including the 1000mb (sfc).. Temp 35.6 degrees taken over and hour ago and heavy wrapping happening to the west of us..

0z NAM showing another .1 to .3 QPF still to fall over area.. Still will be a while before I can look at the soundings to find out what layers are still above freezing..

I expect rain to change over to snow within the next 2 hours, but want to look at the soundings to confirm.. If this happens I suspect at least about a half inch of snow, would be more if ground wasn't already wet and low progged at 33 now..

[southerngale]

Yeah, 18Z GFS shows heavier precip and colder air present - up to 4-6" accumulations just west and northwest of Houston. 1-4" in Houston.

I realize that none of this may verify, but what did it show for a little further east, in the Beaumont area?

[joshskeety]

0z NAM very impressive for Thursday night storm for SJT zone..

Ups QPF some in most areas.. Snow ratios up to 15:1.. This model shows from Midland to Eastland in the I-20 corridor as 3-6 inches of snow..

Josh

[jeff]

0Z NAM a bit slower by about 6 hours with light precip until 06Z 12/5. Slightly warmer , but thickness and 0C line still reach toward the coast between 0Z and 06Z 12/5. QPF of aorund .1-.3

I like the slower solutions and will be trending more toward a Friday afternoon/evening event.

[msstateguy83]

josh i've been real busy this eve what about up to the north say up towards my area near
w.falls for thu night into fri?

[snow and ice]

CPC forecast for December:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ons/30day/

[joshskeety]

Ummm QPF for WF is about .01 on the ETA...

errr NAM.. Sorry.. I still sometimes call it the ETA..

Anyhow.. That is better than it was before because I said and had a feeling that the models are in a northern trend with the moisture..

If I were a betting man, I would think 1-2 inches in your area is not out of the question...

[LaBreeze]

Any ideas on what could possibly be expected in the Beaumont and Orange, TX to Lake Charles, LA corridor and when?

[greg_kfdm_tv]

Any ideas on what could possibly be expected in the Beaumont and Orange, TX to Lake Charles, LA corridor and when?

I would expect nothing more than a few pellets of sleet or flakes late Friday evening until around daybreak Saturday. No accumulations. This system appears to be too dry for anything more.

[Weatherdude20]

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... &map.y=256

Reporting Unknown Precip? ^

http://www.wfaa.com/weather/radar?radar ... f=breaking

Now this is getting me Confident^ Check out that spiriling Winter Storm!

[iorange55]

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=lub&zmx=1&zmy=1&map.x=254&map.y=256

Reporting Unknown Precip? ^

http://www.wfaa.com/weather/radar?radar ... f=breaking

Now this is getting me Confident^ Check out that spiriling Winter Storm!

Does look impressive, but eh. I'll be looking out my window later on in the morning just in case. I can never sleep anyways

[Weatherdude20]

Cooool! haha im exited!

[joshskeety]

That radar is undercutting some.. Sweetwater is now reporting rain mixing and almost all the way over to snow now and its not coming up on that radar..

I expect Abilene mixing to begin within the next hour and a half as that wrap around moisture comes into the area.. Winds have now picking up again out of the north which means the ULL has now past us to the east.. This will filter in the colder air we need to begin the mixing.. Winds are out of the NNW at 5-7MPH now.. I expect that to increase ushering the drying to the dewpoint we need to lower the temps quicker..

[southerngale]

Any ideas on what could possibly be expected in the Beaumont and Orange, TX to Lake Charles, LA corridor and when?

I would expect nothing more than a few pellets of sleet or flakes late Friday evening until around daybreak Saturday. No accumulations. This system appears to be too dry for anything more.

I thought the GFS and NAM showed enough moisture to allow for some accumulation, IF they verified. Are you just not buying them or is there something else I'm missing? And I do realize this is 3 days out and a lot can happen between now and then.

[joshskeety]

btw.. I am in that unknown precip.. Its just misting outside, no snow as of yet..

[wxman57]

Any ideas on what could possibly be expected in the Beaumont and Orange, TX to Lake Charles, LA corridor and when?

I would expect nothing more than a few pellets of sleet or flakes late Friday evening until around daybreak Saturday. No accumulations. This system appears to be too dry for anything more.

Lots of disagreement in the models, Greg. I see the GFS is forecasting close to an inch of accumulated snow over there in the Beaumont area, while the NAM says just a trace. Quite a bit of moisture just to our south over the Gulf. The NAM tends to underestimate moisture in these situations. But the event is still 3 days away so lots of uncertainty.

[greg_kfdm_tv]

Any ideas on what could possibly be expected in the Beaumont and Orange, TX to Lake Charles, LA corridor and when?

I would expect nothing more than a few pellets of sleet or flakes late Friday evening until around daybreak Saturday. No accumulations. This system appears to be too dry for anything more.

I thought the GFS and NAM showed enough moisture to allow for some accumulation, IF they verified. Are you just not buying them or is there something else I'm missing? And I do realize this is 3 days out and a lot can happen between now and then.

You're right, it is 3 days out so things could change. I'm leaning more toward the Euro which is much drier. We'll see if the Euro becomes wetter in the 00z run. I will grant you the 00Z GFS is rather wet and could provide for accumulations Friday evening. Still plenty of time to refine the forecast.

[joshskeety]

0z GFS still following a more southern track for the next storm.. However, in the end it trends the precip further north.. This is because it is still overly cold IMHO..

I always have some doubt when I see the 850 line at Laredo to Corpus Christi.. Especially this early in the season when there is just no snow pack anywhere yet.. Maybe its just me.. lol.. Im beginning to wonder if DFW is not going to get into the mix on this one.. I think the GFS will begin following the NAM over the next couple of runs and DFW will see some snow over this next storm..