Wave WSW of CV Islands

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SFLcane
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Re: Wave WSW of CV Islands - Code Orange

#561 Postby SFLcane » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:19 pm

00z GFS 132hrs...

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http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/00zgfs.html
Last edited by SFLcane on Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:20 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#562 Postby Vortex » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:19 pm

Gatorcane,

Absoloutely agree, things certainly coming together this evening and an Invest will go up later tonight or early Sunday morning...IMO, I think NHC was waiting for one to become more dominant and now that it appears to be happening so I'd expect an invest to go up around 230am or 8am...
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Re: Wave WSW of CV Islands - Code Orange

#563 Postby gatorcane » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:20 pm

SFLcane wrote:00z GFS 126hrs...



Looks to pass through the infamous Hebert box.
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Re: Wave WSW of CV Islands - Code Orange

#564 Postby lester » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:20 pm

ROCK wrote:54hr a 1008 low....not that impressive if you ask me...

GFS isnt too good when it comes to intensity especially the not really new and improved version
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Re: Wave WSW of CV Islands - Code Orange

#565 Postby Recurve » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:21 pm

:uarrow: Holy crap, to borrow a phrase. Well, at least misses the islands.
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#566 Postby gatorcane » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:23 pm

Approaching the SE Bahamas at 150 hours...shortwave passing through the Canadian Maritimes but its not very amplified... looks like future Colin will miss it.
Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:24 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Wave WSW of CV Islands - Code Orange

#567 Postby Recurve » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:23 pm

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Re: Wave WSW of CV Islands - Code Orange

#568 Postby blp » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:24 pm

153
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Last edited by blp on Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#569 Postby Vortex » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:24 pm

00Z GFS H+150 almost identical to last several runs even 6-7 days out...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif
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Re: Wave WSW of CV Islands - Code Orange

#570 Postby boca » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:24 pm

At 132hrs the ridge extends to the NE GOM at that point, so the WNW track would continue thru Florida peninsula.
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Re: Wave WSW of CV Islands - Code Orange

#571 Postby ROCK » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:25 pm

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Re: Wave WSW of CV Islands - Code Orange

#572 Postby gatorcane » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:26 pm

boca wrote:At 132hrs the ridge extends to the NE GOM at that point, so the WNW track would continue thru Florida peninsula.


Yes it would appear so. Looks like at 150 hours...how much ridging will be there is the question...
Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:28 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#573 Postby Scorpion » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:27 pm

Looks like its depicting a very compact system over favorable upper level conditions.
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Re: Wave WSW of CV Islands - Code Orange

#574 Postby blp » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:27 pm

Heading NW it seems.

165

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Last edited by blp on Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#575 Postby Vortex » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:27 pm

may slow in central easter bahamas with wnw/nw trajectory for 12-18 hours but then SW pases by and ridging looks to re-establish itself across the SE/W atlantic...Well see
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Re: Wave WSW of CV Islands - Code Orange

#576 Postby SFLcane » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:29 pm

Looks like a turn back to the west @ 180hrs?

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Re: Wave WSW of CV Islands - Code Orange

#577 Postby Recurve » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:29 pm

From 132 hr to 150 the ridge retreats from Florida somewhat though. I'm looking for a bright spot for Florida.
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#578 Postby gatorcane » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:30 pm

Actually I don't see it move to the NW. It keeps moving WNW. SFCane's graphic shows a bend back to the west and a strong future Colin. Also looking for a bright spot here. Very similar to the 18Z.
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Re: Wave WSW of CV Islands - Code Orange

#579 Postby blp » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:31 pm

Slows down further.... Looks like the high building back in.

177hr

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#580 Postby Vortex » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:32 pm

very simple short wave passes by to the North, colin slows in forward speed and turns nw for about 12-18 hours then pressures rise once again to the north and build over the SE US and western Atlantic causing colin to resume a w/wnw motion
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