Texas Spring-2014

[Ntxw]

Ntwx,

Question. Brooks Garner, our OCM on KHOU ( our local affiliate) stated on his Facebook that this upcoming front would be the last front of the season. He stated it was the " but it's likely to be the last "effective" (in its cooling) cold front".

Do you concur?

This is what Joe Bastardi tweeted, since we can't post wxbell maps but it's from him so here you go! Left being last days of April, right being beginning of May



Alaska has had a crazy run for months. Its been a perpetual heat wave . DFW is right at about neutral but it looks like the below averages next week will nail the coffin for 6 straight months of below average, unheard of since 2000. So unusual FW doesn't even bother mentioning it!

[aggiecutter]

The Weather Channel is predicting a possible historic severe weather and tornado outbreak this weekend. They have the DFW area in the middle of high risk area on Saturday.
http://news.yahoo.com/forecasters-alrea ... 27265.html

[gboudx]

I wonder if the Weather Channel will give this potential storm outbreak a name?

[aggiecutter]

Bill Bunting, chief of operations at the Storm Prediction Center, says one of the analogs for this weekends severe weather event is May 3,1999.
http://mashable.com/2014/04/24/central- ... -outbreak/

[Ntxw]

This doesn't look anything like a warm spring pattern to start May. Whatever cold there is in the northern hemisphere it's bundled up over North America. Notice the big ridge in Alaska.

[South Texas Storms]

That darn Alaska warm pool is not helping out our developing drought situation. Go away already! We need good rain events with regularity starting soon!

[TheProfessor]

Well unfortunately I won't touring OU's school of Atmospheric Science this weekend. My parents were already hesitant about going, but then I got an email saying that something has come up so the department won't be able to host the event on Saturday. I bet most of you know what that something is.

[somethingfunny]

Well unfortunately I won't touring OU's school of Atmospheric Science this weekend. My parents were already hesitant about going, but then I got an email saying that something has come up so the department won't be able to host the event on Saturday. I bet most of you know what that something is.

I would love to be a fly on the wall in there during a severe weather outbreak

[Ntxw]

Day 3 moderate risk for the Arklatex. Those in far NE Texas needs to be alert this weekend (with dixie). The rest of Texas has questions about cap and initiation but if any storm does break out will likely be very strong/violent quickly, just not likely as numerous and confident as our friends in Texarkana.

[aggiecutter]

Day 3 moderate risk for the Arklatex. Those in far NE Texas needs to be alert this weekend (with dixie). The rest of Texas has questions about cap and initiation but if any storm does break out will likely be very strong/violent quickly, just not likely as numerous and confident as our friends in Texarkana.

yeah, I just saw that:

[dhweather]

This event, IN MY OPINION, will be a non-event for most, if not all of the metroplex. The dry line will push to or just east of the I/35 corridor/metroplex Saturday night/Sunday morning when heating is gone, so I don't expect much at all from this event.


Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi & Alabama MIGHT see PDS tornado watches.

[aggiecutter]

A sobering AFD for my area from the Shreveport NWS:

"ESPECIALLY ALONG/JUST
E OF THE DRYLINE OVER E TX/NW LA...WITH VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES QUICKLY ADVANCING NE OVER THESE SAME AREAS INTO SE OK/SW AR.
0-1KM HELICITIES INCREASE TO 400-450 M2/S2 WITH 0-3KM HELICITIES
IN EXCESS OF 500 M2/S2 DEPICTED ON THE NAM...ACROSS STRONGLY
BACKED WINDS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT LONG TRACK SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES ACROSS THE HEART OF OUR AREA. THIS
CONVECTION MAY ALSO TRAIN REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS OVER
EXTREME ERN TX/NW LA/SW AR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING."

[horselattitudesfarm]

This event, IN MY OPINION, will be a non-event for most, if not all of the metroplex. The dry line will push to or just east of the I/35 corridor/metroplex Saturday night/Sunday morning when heating is gone, so I don't expect much at all from this event.


Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi & Alabama MIGHT see PDS tornado watches.

I agree with you. Every updated map shows the action further and further to the east. Every spring I see the same thing nowadays: Too strong of a cap to break and all the ingredients to make it rain just keep getting harder and harder to get all together. I thought that my move to NC might help it rain there more The low is going to hang up over us here in WNC and make it rain for most of next week. Rain here has not been a problem so far so maybe I don't have that much drought influence after all

[Ntxw]

This event, IN MY OPINION, will be a non-event for most, if not all of the metroplex. The dry line will push to or just east of the I/35 corridor/metroplex Saturday night/Sunday morning when heating is gone, so I don't expect much at all from this event.


Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi & Alabama MIGHT see PDS tornado watches.

Looks like you will be correct. HRRR fires a few cells this evening out west, maybe a tornado cell near Wichita Falls but the complex will die as it moves east and lose daytime heating. Tomorrow morning may see a complex of storms from I-20 to the Red River but that doesn't look too bad until it gets to Far E Texas. Won't be much of an event here.

THUNDERSTORMS...
STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST...BUT THE COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL ALSO MAKE GRADUAL
PROGRESS TO THE EAST. IF THE ACTIVITY DOES NOT DISSIPATE...IT MAY
REACH THE METROPLEX AFTER MIDNIGHT...DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SUNDAY. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED AT THE TIME...BUT
SOME STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN DAYBREAK AND MIDDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION.

May be some big tornadoes in MS/AL/GA

[aggiecutter]

From the storms prediction center April 26th:

"FARTHER S...A MORE VOLATILE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD EXIST S
OF ANY EARLY DAY CONVECTION /INVOF THE ARKLATEX/. WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HEATING INTO THE 80S/90S ALONG/W OF THE DRYLINE IN
TX...MLCAPE SHOULD REACH 2500 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF IT. HODOGRAPHS
APPEAR QUITE CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TORNADOES. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN THE
MOST ROBUST WITH THE CO-LOCATION OF STRONG BUOYANCY AND LARGE
CURVING HODOGRAPHS. OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONGER KINEMATIC
FIELDS WILL BE DISPLACED FARTHER EAST /CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY/. BUT WITH THE DRYLINE STALLING OR SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS NERN
TX SUN NIGHT...TRAINING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT. PARTS OF THIS REGION MAY WARRANT
AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS."

[weatherdude1108]

It always seems like it is either chances for severe storms, or nothing at all. Now we have a Red Flag Warning. I miss those good old fashion, not that scary Springtime MCS thunderstorms that move thru Texas in the overnight hours.


000
FXUS64 KEWX 262021
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
321 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH
ARIZONA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ON AN E/NE TRAJECTORY THAT WILL TAKE
THE SYSTEM INTO NORTHERN NM AND THEN THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY. SO WHILE THE SYSTEM IS STRONG...UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE
DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE WE WONT
TOTALLY BE VOID OF TRIGGERS FOR SH/TS...OVERALL POP WILL REMAIN VERY
LOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS CAP REMAINS HIGH.

OUR BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LIMIT TO
SLIGHT/CHANCE POP AS SOME OF THE MODELS DEVELOP SOME ACTIVITY. SOME OF
THE POP MAY BE STORMS COMING IN OFF MEXICO...WHILE OTHER HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE FORMING CONVECTION WELL PAST MIDNIGHT OVER
THE CWA. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED OVERNIGHT WITH
DYNAMICS LACKING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SH/TS. DAY 1
OUTLOOK JUST SCALED BACK THE SLIGHT RISK THREAT INTO NW TEXAS. AM
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO FULLY PULL THE SVR THREAT OVERNIGHT BASED
ON PAST EVENTS THIS SPRING. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL AS THE WIND WILL STAY UP MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE DRYLINE WILL
MAKE A STRONG PUSH DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
SUNDAY...PUSHING THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA BY 21Z. THIS WILL
LEAVE A VERY SMALL WINDOW TO GET SOME STORMS TO FIRE IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FAR E/SE COUNTIES. THE
DAY2 OUTLOOK HAS SHIFTED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA NE OF OUR CWA BUT
WILL HANG ONTO OUR SMALL CHANCES OF SVR FOR OUR NE COUNTIES UNTIL WE
KNOW FOR SURE.

THE STRONG WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP ANY ACTIVITY ON
SUNDAY VERY ISOLATED. ITS SPRING...SO CANT RULE OUT SEVERE
ACTIVITY IN OUR AREA BASED ON VERY WARM TEMPS...BUT THE CAPPING
INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL
BRING VERY WARM AND EVEN HOT TEMPS TO THE REGION...WITH SOME
TRIPLE DIGITS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND RECORD HEAT.
THIS WILL ADD TO FIRE CONCERNS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SEE
ADDITIONAL INFO BELOW IN THE FIRE SECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
LARGE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CHURN UP IN THE MIDWEST THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK...KEEPING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN A GENERALLY WESTERLY
FLOW PATTERN. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND WARM ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE SURFACE PRESSURES START INCREASING AS THE UPPER LOW
TAPS INTO SOME COOLER AIR AND DRAGS IT INTO TEXAS. THE MIDDLE TO
END OF THE WEEK WILL SEE A RESULTING COOL DOWN WITH HIGHS BACK DOWN
TO NORMAL LEVELS (LOW 80S) WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. WILL NOT MENTION ANY POP IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE COMBINATION OF WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING SURFACE WINDS AND LOWERING
RH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WILL BRING CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE UPGRADED
THE FIRE WX WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING AND INCLUDED AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF I-35. WHILE THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ON MONDAY...A WEAKER GRADIENT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS AT NEAR
CRITICAL. HAVE THUS DROPPED THE FIRE WATCH FOR MONDAY.

[aggiecutter]

From the AFD out of the NWS Shreveport:
"BUT CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING STRONG TORNADOES ESPECIALLY FROM EXTREME NE TX/SW AR/NRN LA
GIVEN THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY AND BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD
OF THE DRY LINE."

[horselattitudesfarm]

We got to watch for MCS activity. Euro looks to drive several round of them across the northern and eastern half of the state regardless of the cap. FW mentioned this, and frankly I will take them over the supercells. Because any of those that do get going will be violent.

I agree! I will gladly take a routine nocturnal MCS over a supercell ANY day.

Unfortunately I highly doubt any rain will make it as far south as Austin and San Antonio within the next 7 days at least. The energy will likely move too far north as usual. This weather pattern is pretty darn awful and it just won't end. It's been dry across a large part of Texas since the beginning of 2014. Come on wet weather pattern! Texas misses you a lot!

STS, you, unfortunately, seem to be right on target about this so called severe weather outbreak for Texas.

[dhweather]

Vegas bookies probably give the cap winning 8/9 or 9/10 times. I just looked it up, that might be 9.5/10 third driest Jan 1 - April 27 in recorded history. The year from hell, 2011, ranks ninth. I'm afraid this is a sign of things to come. This Summer may not have quite the heat 2011 did, but it very well could be drier Jan 1 - Aug 30.

[aggiecutter]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch just to the east of DFW metroplex. Looks like the dry line is just west of DFW.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for:
Anderson
Bell
Collin
Delta
Falls
Fannin
Freestone
Grayson
Henderson
Hopkins
Hunt
Kaufman
Lamar
Leon
Limestone
McLennan
Milam
Navarro
Rains
Robertson
Rockwall
Van Zandt