Texas Winter 2014-2015

[dhweather]

We need rain some kind of bad...........






from FWD


With the drought now in its 5th year, rainfall this winter will be crucial for the region's reservoirs.



Although the agricultural drought has seen occasional reprieves, the hydrologic drought has steadily worsened across much of the region. Nearly 30 feet below conservation, Hubbard Creek Reservoir is only 14% full. Also in the Brazos basin is Lake Palo Pinto, which is at only 10% of its conservation volume. Lake Ray Hubbard (Trinity basin) is currently at its all-time record low level. Autumn rainfall has provided minimal runoff for area reservoirs, emphasizing how much more rainfall is needed.

The worst drought conditions are impacting the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex and areas to the west. Conditions range from abnormally dry (D0) in Central and East Texas to exceptional drought (D4) from the Metroplex westward to the Possum Kingdom area. On September 24, Possum Kingdom Lake bottomed out at 983.74 feet above sea level, its lowest level since 1971.

Sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific exceeded the threshold for El Niño conditions in mid-October, and there has been additional warming since. El Niño conditions are expected to remain in place throughout the winter. As a result, long range outlooks favor above normal precipitation, which could help ease drought conditions across the region. However, a moderate or strong El Niño is unlikely, which may reduce the chances for significant drought relief.

[Ntxw]

I hope the CPC's forecast of above normal precipitation comes to fruition. We really need spring to be good next year, that's where the deficits have hurt the most during March/April/May. We need a warmer spring, enough of the late season cold get it all during DJF.

Anyway California is really getting slammed the next few days. High wind warnings across central and northern parts of that state, flooding and a lot of unusual weather. Show's how powerful this digging system coming into the CONUS is. Quite the deviation from normal.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Your rain shall be here in due time. Prolly just come all at once.
Last two days down here have been beautiful but before that it was very overcast and dreary for like a week straight.

[weatherdude1108]

Our lakes aren't faring much better.

Lake levels inch up with November rain
Inflows remain far below average as drought persists​​

November weather systems brought he third highest monthly inflows for the year.
Low inflows have persisted throughout 2014, despite near-normal rainfall near the Highland Lakes. The sporadic timing of storms allowed the soil to dry out between rain events. For water to run off into the lakes, the rain must fall on saturated ground or the rain must be hard enough to generate substantial runoff. Very little of either occurred this year.
Inflows from January through November 2014 totaled 197,339 acre-feet – the third lowest for that 11-month period since 1942.
Inflows to the Highland Lakes have been at or near historic lows for an extended period during this drought:
Six of the 10 lowest annual inflows in history have occurred since 2006. Average annual inflows for 1942-2013 are 1,230,284 acre-feet.
​
The lowest annual inflows in history occurred in 2011 with only 127,802 acre-feet, about 10 percent of the annual average.
The second lowest inflows in history were 215,138 acre-feet (about 17 percent of the annual average) in 2013.
The third lowest inflows in history were 284,462 acre-feet (about 23 percent of the annual average) in 2008.
The fourth lowest inflows in history were 285,229 acre-feet (about 23 percent of the annual average) in 2006.
The sixth lowest inflows in history were 393,163 acre-feet (about 32 percent of the annual average) in 2012.
The ninth lowest inflows in history were 499,732 acre-feet (about 41 percent of the annual average) in 2009.

​Despite the low inflows, November rains raised lake levels slightly. The combined storage of lakes Travis and Buchanan rose from 680,863 acre-feet on Nov. 1 to 691,132 acre-feet on Dec. 1. Lake Buchanan rose several inches, while Lake Travis rose a little less than two feet.
In early December, the combined storage of lakes Travis and Buchanan stood at 34 percent of capacity. If combined storage falls to 30 percent of capacity, or 600,000 acre-feet, the LCRA Board of Directors will issue a Drought Worse Than the Drought of Record declaration. Following a state-approved plan, LCRA then would require cities, industries and other firm customers to reduce their water use by 20 percent from a baseline year and would cut off all Highland Lakes water to interruptible customers.
Without additional rain in the Highland Lakes watershed, there is a small chance the combined storage of lakes Buchanan and Travis could fall to 600,000 acre-feet as soon as March 2015.
Though lake levels are low, the Highland Lakes are doing exactly what they were designed to do – capture water when it rains to ensure the region has a reliable water supply during droughts.
Lakes Travis and Buchanan provide drinking water to more than a million people and water to industries, businesses, the environment and, when available, agriculture in the lower Colorado River basin.
LCRA has been working aggressively to conserve water and expand the water supply during the drought. With permission from the state, LCRA has cut off Highland Lakes water to most interruptible agricultural customers for three years in a row and is seeking emergency drought relief again for 2015.
In December, LCRA is holding a groundbreaking ceremony for the first new water supply reservoir in the lower Colorado River basin in decades. The Lane City Reservoir is the first project that will allow LCRA to capture and store significant amounts of water downstream of the Highland Lakes. The reservoir could add up to 90,000 acre-feet per year to LCRA’s firm water supply and is expected to be completed in​ 2017.

http://www.lcra.org/water/water-supply/ ... fault.aspx

[orangeblood]

I spy cross-polar flow on the GFS ensembles just in time for the holidays!! Some Euro ensemble members are depicting a major winter storm crossing the state around the 20th as well

[srainhoutx]

The CFS for the third cycle in a row is suggesting temperature anomalies below to much below normal across our Region and across virtually all of North America as we end December and begin January 2015.

[orangeblood]

The CFS for the third cycle in a row is suggesting temperature anomalies below to much below normal across our Region and across virtually all of North America as we end December and begin January 2015.

The only thing that makes me hesitant to go towards the much below normal route for the end of the month are the Euro Ensembles...they show a much flatter west coast ridge bringing in more Pacific Air into the pattern

[srainhoutx]

The CFS for the third cycle in a row is suggesting temperature anomalies below to much below normal across our Region and across virtually all of North America as we end December and begin January 2015.

The only thing that makes me hesitant to go towards the much below normal route for the end of the month are the Euro Ensembles...they show a much flatter west coast ridge bringing in more Pacific Air into the pattern

The ensemble mean is still struggling with the Pacific pattern as well as the parade of southern stream storms. Instead of shorter wave lengths, the ensembles and operational guidance tends to 'believe' longer wave lengths are likely. The pattern and teleconnection indices suggest a very fast flow and will struggle greatly resolving the pattern across the N Pacific as well as energy moving inland from the EPAC. I strongly suspect that each storm that progresses inland with each long wave trough will be stronger than the previous storm and the guidance will eventually 'catch up' as we near the Christmas timeframe.

[CaptinCrunch]

We need rain some kind of bad...........






from FWD


With the drought now in its 5th year, rainfall this winter will be crucial for the region's reservoirs.



Although the agricultural drought has seen occasional reprieves, the hydrologic drought has steadily worsened across much of the region. Nearly 30 feet below conservation, Hubbard Creek Reservoir is only 14% full. Also in the Brazos basin is Lake Palo Pinto, which is at only 10% of its conservation volume. Lake Ray Hubbard (Trinity basin) is currently at its all-time record low level. Autumn rainfall has provided minimal runoff for area reservoirs, emphasizing how much more rainfall is needed.

The worst drought conditions are impacting the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex and areas to the west. Conditions range from abnormally dry (D0) in Central and East Texas to exceptional drought (D4) from the Metroplex westward to the Possum Kingdom area. On September 24, Possum Kingdom Lake bottomed out at 983.74 feet above sea level, its lowest level since 1971.

Sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific exceeded the threshold for El Niño conditions in mid-October, and there has been additional warming since. El Niño conditions are expected to remain in place throughout the winter. As a result, long range outlooks favor above normal precipitation, which could help ease drought conditions across the region. However, a moderate or strong El Niño is unlikely, which may reduce the chances for significant drought relief.

El Nino conditions were present even before the CFC made the official call, and Temps have continued to increase in the pacific. I think we will see a moderate El Nino by early January that will carry out into spring. The active storm track that's already evident in the pacific will continue through out winter and hopefully well into early spring.

[TheProfessor]

Man, this is some of the thickest fog I've seen here in a while, in some areas I couldn't even see 100 Ft in front of me.

[Ntxw]

I agree it looks like a colder pattern. Nothing (yet) shows severe arctic outbreak in the foreseable future perhaps when we flip to January. But if you want snow and opportunities of it for the holidays its a good way to go about it. Get the storms and system train first, the cold will come. Ridging around Hudson Bay is a good place to start.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The 00z last night, GFS looked like it was leaning towards something at hour 372-384. Way too far about but hey, thats the idea it has! #ArcticBlast

[Portastorm]

I certainly hope the western areas of the Metroplex can get some good rains out of this weekend's system. Seems like the models still haven't quite honed in yet on the actual low track but as we know from previous years, sometimes that is not determined well until the final 24-36 hours.

Meanwhile, I have seen nothing from the more prominent long-range meteorologists that indicates they have changed their ideas: still looking for a major pattern change to much colder/stormier look for the central/eastern CONUS by late December into early January.

[weatherdude1108]

May be interesting for New Years Eve festivities...possibly(?). I know, too soon to speculate with these silly models.

[TarrantWx]

Ntxw,

I'm interested to get your take on the GOA warm pool. I've been watching SST's in the Pacific and noticed that the Gulf of Alaska warm pool anomalies relaxed following the November arctic blast. But I've been noticing that the anomalies are warming up again in the GOA and it looks like it's rebounded quite nicely. Could this contribute to the EPO going negative and the impending pattern change?

[gboudx]

If you look at the historical lake levels for NCTX, you see steep increases indicating the lakes filled fairly quickly. The most recent I can remember, either 2006 or 2008 I think, Lavon was over 9' low and within a few months time was so high, water was being released downstream. IIRC, most of the rain occurred in the Spring months. Once the ground gets saturated, these lakes fill up fast with additional rainfall.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Ntxw,

I'm interested to get your take on the GOA warm pool. I've been watching SST's in the Pacific and noticed that the Gulf of Alaska warm pool anomalies relaxed following the November arctic blast. But I've been noticing that the anomalies are warming up again in the GOA and it looks like it's rebounded quite nicely. Could this contribute to the EPO going negative and the impending pattern change?

I see this as well. Its become MUCH warmer over the last 7 days. This will help with a +EPO. Its possible that the strong south-southwest flow from the constant lows west of the region could be leading to this.

[Big O]

JB tweeted the 12z GEFS valid 0z 12/26, and it looks amazing for us in Texas and all areas east of the Continental Divide.

http://t.co/xwk9JdbDlC

[high_lander]

Just saw that, while I am dreaming of snow, we are driving down to NOLA on the 26th.

Oof.

[Ralph's Weather]

JB tweeted the 12z GEFS valid 0z 12/26, and it looks amazing for us in Texas and all areas east of the Continental Divide.

http://t.co/xwk9JdbDlC

As we have been expecting, the models are starting to see the late December cold. Would love a repeat of the Christmas 2012 snow.