ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[chaser1]

I would not be surprised if most of the convection dissipates.

If that occurs, near convection can then form along the wave axis, which is west of the MLC. That is what will allow for development. I believe Fay many years ago had issues forming because convection persisted around the MLC, which was well away from the surface wave axis

I can see that; you're referring to the larger mid level feature more north and east of where a LLC looks to be attempting to form (around 16.0 & 72.8W?)

[CrazyC83]

This may just become Ivette ultimately as well?

[chaser1]

It's clear from visible imagery that the low-level center is west of the convection. Still too much low-level shear due to the fast movement. That'll change soon.

I suppose this has been happening all along however over the last 24 or so hours, the large canopy of convection associated with the broader mid level feature has been gaining a slight bit of latitude while also begun to trail the quicker and more westward moving point where a LLC may becoming slightly more evident? So, would it be fair to suggest that any near term development (today) might be hampered by the systems tilt from SW near the surface, to the NE a bit? No doubt there is new convection now beginning to pop near or over the potentially developing LLC.

[TexasF6]

We must wait for the centers to reform to believe any of these models. Grain of salt here.

[BobHarlem]

Recon is going out late this afternoon.

[TheStormExpert]

This may just become Ivette ultimately as well?

Doubt it, will just go straight into Mexico.

[stormlover2013]

Center reformation won't matter to much unless that strong high pressure breaks down

[chaser1]

Pattern for 97L is really becoming locked in. Originally appeared that a small window might exist between now and about 24-36 hours where if a deeper T.S. perhaps located NW of Jamaica, might gain some latitude by finding a weekness projected to breifly occur between the SW perifery of the 591 high just east of the N. Bahamas and a larger building 591 mid level high over East Texas. Reality is however, that a LLC appears to be forming closer to a point close to 15.5 and 73.0 perhaps and this feature seems definately entrenched within the deeper low level trades. I dont think there's any modeling at all right now, that even attempts to develop 97L and move it north of 20. in the Caribbean. Westward ho - "Belize it, or not"? lol

[chaser1]

Recon is going out late this afternoon.

About what time do you think we'll be getting a flight level center fix and obs (assuming a LLC has closed off)?

[tolakram]

Recon is going out late this afternoon.

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/760126335150882816

[Yellow Evan]

This may just become Ivette ultimately as well?

Maybe Javier, but I suspect the 10/70 in the EPAC becomes Ivette.

[tolakram]

Late scheduled run today for 97L

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/760126335150882816

[cycloneye]

They will be very busy.

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 011514
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT MON 01 AUGUST 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z AUGUST 2016
         TCPOD NUMBER.....16-067

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA....CARIBBEAN SEA
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72             FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 73
       A. 02/1130, 1730Z                A. 02/2330, 03/0530Z
       B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE           B. AFXXX 0305A CYCLONE
       C. 02/0715Z                      C. 02/1930Z
       D. 16.1N 79.0W                   D. 16.2N 81.8W
       E. 02/1100Z TO 02/1730Z          E. 02/2300Z TO 03/0530Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT              F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 43           FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 74
       A. 03/0930Z                      A. 03/1130, 1730Z
       B. NOAA3 0405A                   B. AFXXX 0505A CYCLONE
       C. 03/0600Z                      C. 03/0800Z
       D. 16.4N 83.9W                   D. 16.6N 84.3W
       E. 03/0900Z TO 03/1200Z          E. 03/1100Z TO 03/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT              F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
       B. P-3 FLIGHTS DEPARTING EVERY 12 HOURS AT 0600Z AND 1800Z.
    3. REMARKS: TEAL 71 IS FLYING A RESOURCES PERMITTING LOW LEVEL
       INVEST INTO THIS SYSTEM TODAY. ESTIMATED TAKEOFF 01/1630Z.

[tolakram]

Now capturing images every 7 to 10 minutes.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-73&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=725&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

Speed it up. New storms look to be popping on the west side of what might be an LLC?

[tropicwatch]

Now capturing images every 7 to 10 minutes.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-73&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=725&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

Speed it up. New storms look to be popping on the west side of what might be an LLC?

Are you talking about this area?

[tolakram]

Are you talking about this area?

No, west of the cloudless area, but it's just a guess. It's hard to see the LLC, if it exists, when the MLC is spinning around.

[gatorcane]

Big ball of convection but without a surface low pressure area generating this but rather shear induced, I could see the convection fading and not sustaining. Certainly development seems quite likely once in the Western Caribbean.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Hurricaneman]

Are you talking about this area?

No, west of the cloudless area, but it's just a guess. It's hard to see the LLC, if it exists, when the MLC is spinning around.

for all we know it could be under the MLC but thats for recon to find out

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Dean4Storms]

Are you talking about this area?

No, west of the cloudless area, but it's just a guess. It's hard to see the LLC, if it exists, when the MLC is spinning around.

Yea, if there is an LLC it looks like it is WSW of that circle close under that new popping Convection. I get that from the SE to NW fast moving LL Clouds seen under the feathery cirrus outflow there on the southern extent. If the LLC was further East then I would expect to see those LL clouds racing more North or NNE to wrap around the LLC. Cannot see any LL clouds rotating South to the west of it however!

[abajan]

But what the heck is this?



It doesn't look natural to me.