ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MississippiWx]

That center pass looks solid. and within the developing convection and convergence. next pass should be telling.

That was definitely the most coherent center pass yet.

[Steve]

This is not a put down on government, just pure experience from Michael. If you are in the impact area, do not look to the government to take care of you. You had better be self sufficient for a minimum of 5 days. I would suggest 2 weeks or more. Government does not move that fast and FEMA is still trying to deal with all the disasters our GREAT nation has endured recently. I encourage everyone to access your risk (flooding, power loss, FOOD, WATER, etc.) and mitigate everything the best you can. Depending on others to take care of you could be a recipe for disaster for you and your love ones. If you are instructed to evacuate an area, common sense should lead you to assume help will be limited and slow because the ordered evacuation. Most likely on your own if you chose to not to evacuate. Duke Energy was absolutely a "text book" model for utility response and it still took 5 weeks to get power restored to our community which evolved a total infrastructure rebuild. Response and Recovery can be very uncertain during a major event. Good look to all and listen to your local authorities and do not take anything for chance.

That’s all well and good for those of us who have the means. Hurricanes Katrina and Maria showed us a significant portion of Americans are impoverished enough to need help. There’s a ton of positive roles for the government in extreme weather events from forecasting to flying recon missions to search and rescue to making evacuation routes safe to recovery etc. then we have hospitals, fire and ems units along with many of our service people in shelters and recovery pavilions who might just be passing out a bottle of cold water to people waiting in hours long lines just to apply for roof tarps and other immediate needs. Don’t be a hater imho.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Starting to wrap up more quickly per the recon, the most recent mass versus the very first pass shows a marked increase in organization.

[StormLogic]

Jim Cantore spotted in Winnie, Tx.
https://www.facebook.com/waylon888/post ... 4843463839

That means he's feeling the more west yo

[Hurricaneman]

The most recent pass IMO shows just enough organization to maybe declare this a tropical cyclone at 11

[RachelAnna]

Jim Cantore spotted in Winnie, Tx.
https://www.facebook.com/waylon888/post ... 4843463839

That means he's feeling the more west yo

Means it will be waaaaaay east.

[floridasun78]

look some dry air affecting east part of area it side most dry up all stormy weather on west
side

[Hypercane_Kyle]

look some dry air affecting east part of area it side most dry up all stormy weather on west
side

Not dry air. RH values are 74% in that region per the GFS. What you're seeing is 25 knots northerly wind shear.

[Agua]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=u_P_j8UG2-c

Joe B still doing some Euro chasing here but worried about pulling track east and implications.

Quite a change for him over the last 10 years.

[crimi481]

Is that mid west trough tugging and draining energy from the storm? adding to it? or just sheering it.
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=g ... =undefined

[SoupBone]

look some dry air affecting east part of area it side most dry up all stormy weather on west
side

Not dry air. RH values are 74% in that region per the GFS. What you're seeing is 25 knots northerly wind shear.

Yep.

[MississippiWx]

look some dry air affecting east part of area it side most dry up all stormy weather on west
side

Not dry air. RH values are 74% in that region per the GFS. What you're seeing is 25 knots northerly wind shear.

Shear has a little to do with it, but it mostly has to do with where the most convergence has been located today. The loosely organized low has not forced much convergence on its northern side today, but as the flow slows down to the west and the easterlies collide near Louisiana, blow-ups of thunderstorms have occurred.

[artist]

This is not a put down on government, just pure experience from Michael. If you are in the impact area, do not look to the government to take care of you. You had better be self sufficient for a minimum of 5 days. I would suggest 2 weeks or more. Government does not move that fast and FEMA is still trying to deal with all the disasters our GREAT nation has endured recently. I encourage everyone to access your risk (flooding, power loss, FOOD, WATER, etc.) and mitigate everything the best you can. Depending on others to take care of you could be a recipe for disaster for you and your love ones. If you are instructed to evacuate an area, common sense should lead you to assume help will be limited and slow because the ordered evacuation. Most likely on your own if you chose to not to evacuate. Duke Energy was absolutely a "text book" model for utility response and it still took 5 weeks to get power restored to our community which evolved a total infrastructure rebuild. Response and Recovery can be very uncertain during a major event. Good look to all and listen to your local authorities and do not take anything for chance.

That’s all well and good for those of us who have the means. Hurricanes Katrina and Maria showed us a significant portion of Americans are impoverished enough to need help. There’s a ton of positive roles for the government in extreme weather events from forecasting to flying recon missions to search and rescue to making evacuation routes safe to recovery etc. then we have hospitals, fire and ems units along with many of our service people in shelters and recovery pavilions who might just be passing out a bottle of cold water to people waiting in hours long lines just to apply for roof tarps and other immediate needs. Don’t be a hater imho.

That didn’t sound like a hater, but someone that has lived through the reality of the aftermath of a storm. For those that have the means, it can be a life saver, and will help the govt be able to concentrate more on those that don’t.

[johngaltfla]

Jim Cantore spotted in Winnie, Tx.
https://www.facebook.com/waylon888/post ... 4843463839

He's always 100+ miles off this far off from landfall.

Panic time in Louisiana.

(J/K- Take this one seriously folks, once Barry gets its act together, Gulf Storms are notorious for RI. Listen to local governments for warnings and have preps ready NOW)

[MGC]

PTC2 is slowly getting better organized. As the system moves away from the shear the organization level of the system should improve. Thinking an upgrade to TD or TS by Thursday morning by 11am advisory. If shear remains weak Thursday and Friday, the storm could intensify at a good clip. Looks to me like a central LA landfall as a Cat-1 hurricane. Wishing everyone in the path of Barry to get ready and be safe.....MGC

[SoupBone]

Why is no one discussing this more? This seems to be a pretty significant development.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1149069365817556993

[CaneCurious]

PTC2 is slowly getting better organized. As the system moves away from the shear the organization level of the system should improve. Thinking an upgrade to TD or TS by Thursday morning by 11am advisory. If shear remains weak Thursday and Friday, the storm could intensify at a good clip. Looks to me like a central LA landfall as a Cat-1 hurricane. Wishing everyone in the path of Barry to get ready and be safe.....MGC

I think the upgrade will be Thursday afternoon but I think you are spot on.

[StormLogic]

PTC2 is slowly getting better organized. As the system moves away from the shear the organization level of the system should improve. Thinking an upgrade to TD or TS by Thursday morning by 11am advisory. If shear remains weak Thursday and Friday, the storm could intensify at a good clip. Looks to me like a central LA landfall as a Cat-1 hurricane. Wishing everyone in the path of Barry to get ready and be safe.....MGC

I think the upgrade will be Thursday afternoon but I think you are spot on.

I'm just not buying central la landfall

[tolakram]

Not night time yet but here's SLIDER with the microphysics overlay

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B1%5D=0.5&hidden%5B0%5D=0&hidden%5B1%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=band_02&p%5B1%5D=eumetsat_nighttime_microphysics&x=4380&y=5331

COD with the same view
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-ntmicro-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[Steve]

This is not a put down on government, just pure experience from Michael. If you are in the impact area, do not look to the government to take care of you. You had better be self sufficient for a minimum of 5 days. I would suggest 2 weeks or more. Government does not move that fast and FEMA is still trying to deal with all the disasters our GREAT nation has endured recently. I encourage everyone to access your risk (flooding, power loss, FOOD, WATER, etc.) and mitigate everything the best you can. Depending on others to take care of you could be a recipe for disaster for you and your love ones. If you are instructed to evacuate an area, common sense should lead you to assume help will be limited and slow because the ordered evacuation. Most likely on your own if you chose to not to evacuate. Duke Energy was absolutely a "text book" model for utility response and it still took 5 weeks to get power restored to our community which evolved a total infrastructure rebuild. Response and Recovery can be very uncertain during a major event. Good look to all and listen to your local authorities and do not take anything for chance.

That’s all well and good for those of us who have the means. Hurricanes Katrina and Maria showed us a significant portion of Americans are impoverished enough to need help. There’s a ton of positive roles for the government in extreme weather events from forecasting to flying recon missions to search and rescue to making evacuation routes safe to recovery etc. then we have hospitals, fire and ems units along with many of our service people in shelters and recovery pavilions who might just be passing out a bottle of cold water to people waiting in hours long lines just to apply for roof tarps and other immediate needs. Don’t be a hater imho.

That didn’t sound like a hater, but someone that has lived through the reality of the aftermath of a storm. For those that have the means, it can be a life saver, and will help the govt be able to concentrate more on those that don’t.

I mean we saw the convention center in 2005. Though 90% of the New Orleans metro area evacuated, there were still 100,000 people who had no means to get out. Obviously those of us all who can need to do whatever we are able and take personal responsibility. And we do. But even for those of us who have the means, if we run into an emergency like many people did with water coming up fast in places it never had during Harvey, you may have to rely on a shelter. I've also lived through the aftermath of a storm where I lost everything. So I know a little bit about it too. I wasn't disregarding the good advice to be prepared and have your act together at all. It was more about the idea of "do not look to the government to take care of you." It doesn't seem like one size fits all to me.