ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneAndre2008]

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Oct. 5, 2020
22:00 Z
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10/05 21:24 | 17 | 984mb | 63kts (63kts) | 64kts (64kts)
Raw?
Note: "In. Flt" is max inbound flight level wind. "In. Sfc" is max inbound surface wind, estimated by SFMR or visually. If outbound wind is reported, then highest wind, inbound or outbound from center, is in parenthesis. Winds usually averaged over 10s period. Extrap. MSLPs have (e) next to them. Add missed obs.
Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 21:48Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Number & Year: 26 in 2020
Storm Name: Delta (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 17

A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 21:24:57Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16.26N 79.32W
B. Center Fix Location: 206 statute miles (331 km) to the SW (234°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,966m (9,731ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 984mb (29.06 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 235° at 9kts (From the SW at 10mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 64kts (73.6mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NNE (22°) of center fix at 21:22:38Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 112° at 63kts (From the ESE at 72.5mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NNE (23°) of center fix at 21:22:03Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 61kts (70.2mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 5 nautical miles to the SSW (208°) of center fix at 21:30:33Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 305° at 55kts (From the NW at 63.3mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 9 nautical miles to the SW (215°) of center fix at 21:31:35Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,060m (10,039ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,071m (10,075ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp: Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 63kts (~ 72.5mph) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NNE (23°) from the flight level center at 21:22:03Z

[BYG Jacob]

Wow. The structure has improved dramatically the past couple of hours. Buckle up.

https://i.imgur.com/uZn9guM.jpg

Got a classic monsoonal look

[Hurricane Mike]

6pm Video Update on Delta
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHvfxQ9Jz0w

[Visioen]

Got goosebumps checking the satellite loop, then I saw pressure and my mouth literally fell open.

[bella_may]

Looks to be drifting to the north a tad after the eye formed on the eastern side

[toad strangler]

Delta will do what no storm in 2005 could do. Be a Greek storm with real significance outside of statistical. Might be forced to retire it.

Correction, Beta in 2005 should have been shelved. I was thinking only CONUS. Beta had severe impacts in Columbia.

[zhukm29]

Funny thing is, list 6 has a Cat 5 curse, in that no name on this list has ever attained Cat 5 strength. It'd be quite ironic if 2020 ends up getting a Cat 5, because the list 6 curse would still continue, but in the most unexpected way possible (since we've already exhausted the name list)...

[aspen]

There’s a large hot tower expanding over and curling around Delta’s core.

[GCANE]

Eye and eyewall evident on IR.

[Kazmit]

The core is small looking but the extent of the banding is huge.

[RL3AO]

I'd bet on a cat 4+ during tomorrow. This has some serious WPac vibes.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Eye and eyewall evident on IR.

https://i.imgur.com/2Vx3xpp.png

is that seriously it? because oh boy if it is.

[bella_may]

Unless this thing speeds up I don’t see it going west of Baton Rouge. It won’t have enough time before the trough comes in

[HurricaneAndre2008]

It's time for an upgrade

[Kazmit]

Eye and eyewall evident on IR.

https://i.imgur.com/2Vx3xpp.png

is that seriously it? because oh boy if it is.

Pinhole?

[ElectricStorm]

It's time for an upgrade

They'll probably upgrade it at the intermediate advisory

[galaxy401]

We have a rapidly organizing storm that is moving into the hottest waters in the Atlantic basin. This looks like a bomb that is about to go off.

[GCANE]

Tracking into a sharp gradient theta-e ridge.
That should nail the chances for RI during the evening

[LSU2001]

By nail do you mean enhance the chances of RI or decrease the chance of RI?

[GCANE]

Rain-rate imagery also showing a closed eye and very symmetrical eyewall.
Developing very fast.