WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

[doomhaMwx]

Really remarkable that Goni has kept a pinhole eye after that ERC.

[Hayabusa]

[ElectricStorm]

Folks I've never thought I'd say this...We might have some sort of a Hayian 2.0 here. That EWRC or whatever it was, was Haiyan level... I'm legit terrified for what is about to happen to those people today...

[ElectricStorm]

Raw Ts already back up to 7.5... I think there's an upgrade coming at 12z

[euro6208]

130 knots into Metro Manila? Ouch. Even though it weakens some, a major typhoon would be devastating.

[doomhaMwx]

If there is anything good, it's that Goni is still a fairly small system and forecast to steadily move west, which will hopefully keep the time and scope of worst effects/impacts limited.

[euro6208]

This is incredible. That pinhole eye doesn't want to go away and has cleared and warmed while cloud tops have explosively deepen and cool. CDG again!

[ElectricStorm]

If there is anything good, it's that Goni is still a fairly small system and forecast to steadily move west, which will hopefully keep the time and scope of worst effects/impacts limited.

Yeah that is true. Manila is going to get slammed though

[redisol]

Is there a possibility for Metro Manila to experience Haiyan/Yolanda type of storm surge? I'm thinking whether or not to move my car to higher ground.

[mrbagyo]

Is there a possibility for Metro Manila to experience Haiyan/Yolanda type of storm surge? I'm thinking whether or not to move my car to higher ground.

No. the mechanism is different to that of Yolanda in Tacloban.

In order for a typhoon to generate a huge storm surge in Manila Bay, the storm must come FROM the SOUTH CHINA SEA moving North Eastward towards the Manila Bay -
That is NOT the case with GONI since this is Westward moving typhoon from the Pacific.

You should worry more about the wind driven flying debris and freshwater flooding from intense rainfall associated with Goni

[tatlopuyo]

Latest gfs more southern track. Taking the storm at lower part of batangas. Is it possible for the track to go that lower? And what will be the effects to manila if that happens?

[WAcyclone]

SMAP finally got a good capture of Goni at 0923 UTC today. The pass yielded a max 1-minute wind of 171.6 kt.
There will be another pass ca. 12 hours from now, although the storm may be too close to land by then.



Here's the BD IR image from 0920 UTC:

[Hayabusa]

SMAP finally got a good capture of Goni at 0928 UTC today. The pass yielded a max 1-minute wind of 171.6 kt.
There will be another pass ca. 12 hours from now, although the storm may be too close to land by then.

170 knots! Wow! 12Z upgrade coming in?

[dexterlabio]

If there is anything good, it's that Goni is still a fairly small system and forecast to steadily move west, which will hopefully keep the time and scope of worst effects/impacts limited.

Still a relatively small system but I thought Goni's eyewall has gotten bigger after the EWRC, as shown by the recent MW pass.

[euro6208]

06z GFS initialization...880 mb...

[Hayabusa]

06z GFS initialization...880 mb...

207 knots init

[ElectricStorm]

SMAP finally got a good capture of Goni at 0923 UTC today. The pass yielded a max 1-minute wind of 171.6 kt.
There will be another pass ca. 12 hours from now, although the storm may be too close to land by then.

https://i.imgur.com/XGaNecE.png

Here's the BD IR image from 0920 UTC:

https://i.imgur.com/mqPMrvt.jpg

Whoa!!! Yeah I bet an upgrade is coming

[euro6208]

Goni could actually beat Meranti 2016 for highest intensity given operationally if SMAP was used. Meranti was 165 knots before getting a boost to 170 post season.

879 mb initialization for Goni from GFS could be near it's actual pressure. I remember Meranti had a similar reading, 878, when it made landfall over Itbayat. Itbayat station was right in the eye and had no equipment failure possibly recorded a pressure of 879.5 mb.

[aspen]

SMAP finally got a good capture of Goni at 0923 UTC today. The pass yielded a max 1-minute wind of 171.6 kt.
There will be another pass ca. 12 hours from now, although the storm may be too close to land by then.

https://i.imgur.com/XGaNecE.png

Here's the BD IR image from 0920 UTC:

https://i.imgur.com/mqPMrvt.jpg

Oh snap. Will the JTWC upgrade Goni to 160+ kt again?

And I see this thing still refuses to weaken....2020 stop it please.

[mrbagyo]

Ring of Doom