ATL: LEE - Models

[LarryWx]

Wow, it's quiet in here!
0Z Euro 180 is 250 miles NNW of the 12Z run and even a little N of the 0Z of yesterday.

[RevanTheJedi96]

Wow, it's quiet in here!
0Z Euro 180 is 250 miles NNW of the 12Z run and even a little N of the 0Z of yesterday.

and Larry is back with the update we've all been dying to hear.

[Meteorcane]

Wow, it's quiet in here!
0Z Euro 180 is 250 miles NNW of the 12Z run and even a little N of the 0Z of yesterday.

Interesting the 3 main global deterministic models are now all in almost exactly the same spot at 220 hours... unfortunately I doubt that consensus holds over the next few days, as I think if anything it was a lucky fluke this cycle. I don't trust the day 7-10 period at all.

[LarryWx]

Wow, it's quiet in here!
0Z Euro 180 is 250 miles NNW of the 12Z run and even a little N of the 0Z of yesterday.

and Larry is back with the update we've all been dying to hear.

though it isn't a laughing matter that the 0Z Euro slams into W Nova Scotia at 240. They're obviously not safe and neither is the NE US!

[AxaltaRacing24]

Wow, it's quiet in here!
0Z Euro 180 is 250 miles NNW of the 12Z run and even a little N of the 0Z of yesterday.

pretty obvious now that a safe recurve away from the east coast is all but a certainty at this point....which is good news!

[Teban54]

Wow, it's quiet in here!
0Z Euro 180 is 250 miles NNW of the 12Z run and even a little N of the 0Z of yesterday.

pretty obvious now that a safe recurve away from the east coast is all but a certainty at this point....which is good news!

Just because you have said the same thing 30 times doesn't make it true.

[Hayabusa]

eps 00z

[LarryWx]

eps 00z
https://i.imgur.com/x3P1ty8.png
https://i.imgur.com/uEAnpG2.png

The 0Z EPS' 6 (12%) CONUS hits is the highest yet, beating the 5 hits by the 0Z of 24 hours ago for the full 15 day run. Four hit ME and two hit MA. And that's only through 240 as it appears a couple more will likely hit after 240.
This is more evidence that the NE is NOT safe though I still consider it a low probability as of now.
Nova Scotia and the area near Bermuda appear to get hit the hardest.

[IsabelaWeather]

Wow, it's quiet in here!
0Z Euro 180 is 250 miles NNW of the 12Z run and even a little N of the 0Z of yesterday.

pretty obvious now that a safe recurve away from the east coast is all but a certainty at this point....which is good news!

Dude...what? Why do you keep spamming this same thing over and over? It isnt even true.

[Beef Stew]

Wow, it's quiet in here!
0Z Euro 180 is 250 miles NNW of the 12Z run and even a little N of the 0Z of yesterday.

pretty obvious now that a safe recurve away from the east coast is all but a certainty at this point....which is good news!

A "recurve" away from the east coast (... which is also not a guarantee at this point) that barrels straight into Nova Scotia or Newfoundland certainly impacts more than just fish, and is still a very dangerous situation for those that reside there. At this point, most model guidance suggests that land somewhere will be impacted, so unless its just plain old trolling, I'd suggest refraining from such blanket statements. I get that everyone, myself included, has certain biases when it comes to tracking storms- but the level of certainty you've been expressing in Lee as a fish storm is noticeable. We also have to remember that there are people that may read these forums and have their decisions influenced by them- while this is a small number, and is something that is completely unadvisable, it is the reality of Storm2k being a public website- and as such, we should do our best to not make such concrete claims this far out. You are entitled to your opinion- but the endless stream of "fish, recurve, fish" this far out seeps with ignorance of the tropics, wish-casting, and an overall lack of respect for the situation.

[PavelGaborik10]

GFS goes a tad east, another jump quicker. Actually doesn't make landfall in NS this time but still gives them a nice lashing.

If I were a betting man, I'd still wager on a tight recurve away from Atlantic Canada, but that certainly isn't set in stone and I'm certainly no professional.

[REDHurricane]

eps 00z
https://i.imgur.com/x3P1ty8.png
https://i.imgur.com/uEAnpG2.png

893mb, if it verifies (which it probably won't), would slide in just behind the 1935 Labor Day hurricane as the 4th most intense hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic basin. I haven't been following the tropics for very long, but I'd have to imagine 893mb has to be one of the strongest Euro ensemble member runs in recent memory, right?

[BobHarlem]

There's pretty good agreeement in the models, Wednesday of next week or so we'll be monitoring for that turn to the north. Bermuda and Canada will be watching. For the Caribbean and US, MDR right now is just going to be all recurve, which is the MDR theme this year it seems, probably on Lee and the next two systems. This doesn't mean don't watch it -- especially since it may get close enough to cause bad surf/riptides/erosion-, but the Idalia, Gert, Frankiln, Emily set really gave a good setup for escape routes.

That said recon gets out there today so models tomorrow hopefully will tighten up even more.

[aspen]

The 06z HAFS models have corrected for Lee’s excellent microwave eyewall structure. Both show a Cat 5 peak in the mid 910s within 48 hours, with the HAFS-A getting to an absurd 160 kt/916 mbar tomorrow afternoon/early evening.

[REDHurricane]

The 06z HAFS models have corrected for Lee’s excellent microwave eyewall structure. Both show a Cat 5 peak in the mid 910s within 48 hours, with the HAFS-A getting to an absurd 160 kt/916 mbar tomorrow afternoon/early evening.

90kt increase and 59mb pressure drop in 24 hours, not bad

[Category5Kaiju]

eps 00z
https://i.imgur.com/x3P1ty8.png
https://i.imgur.com/uEAnpG2.png

Wow that is one extremely sharp and abrupt recurve...have any notable Atlantic storms in the past done something like this?

[kevin]

eps 00z
https://i.imgur.com/x3P1ty8.png
https://i.imgur.com/uEAnpG2.png

Wow that is one extremely sharp and abrupt recurve...have any notable Atlantic storms in the past done something like this?

Dorian. And just like Dorian, Lee also seems to stall or slow down quite a bit when it turns.

[ColdMiser123]

I count about 20% of the EPS that show a landfall in New England, that is a fair amount higher compared to the runs yesterday.

[Category5Kaiju]

At this point, I think it's reasonable to say that the Lesser and Greater Antilles are likely going to be safe from direct core impacts.

But the history of this storm has yet to be written, and I do think that New England and Atlantic Canada may need to keep a wary eye out, especially given how this storm seems to want to move due north at some point down the line

[Hayabusa]

06z... another record low