Wilma,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cinlfla]

6z GFDL more west and close to Tampa at landfall.

If I remember right the oz GFDL was closer to a south florida landfall. This is a good example of model flip flopping.

[Trader Ron]

[img=http://img435.imageshack.us/img435/9804/wilma23et.th.gif] Forcast #2...Cold front to strong for Wilma to go up the East Coast. She will go out to sea after crossing South Florida. Wilma will also gain Cat 5 Status for a short time before hitting Florida as a weak Cat 4....Comments Welcome.

I doubt Wilma will become a Cat 4 much less a Cat 5 at any time. Just a guess on my part , I say a strong Cat 2 Weak Cat 3 at landfall.
Just my 2 cents.

[cycloneye]

The blue line (6z GFDL) is the line that those who live in Tampa and south of that city dont want to see.

[dcuevas]

I'm in Tampa and I don't want Wilma! Go AWAY!

[StormFury]

I think the GFDL previous predicted a Venice landfall...now a Sarasota landfall. Very little if any change. And isn't it true that during Charley the GFDL predicted a near Tampa landfall...and then it hit SW Florida because the GFDL underestimated the strength of the trough. Maybe something similar will happen this time.

Which model has proven the most accurate the past hurricane seasons?

And what is the latest GFS model predicting?

[JamesFromMaine2]

how strong does the latest GFDL make wilma now?

[Trader Ron]

The GFDL looks like a Naples/ Ft Myers landfall to my bad eyes. The track is SOUTH of Lake Okeechobee.

[cycloneye]

TPNT KGWC 181215
A. TROPICAL STORM WILMA (TWENTY-FOUR)
B. 18/1131Z (110)
C. 15.6N/2
D. 80.5W/3
E. SIX/GOES12
F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS -18/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR

38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .80 USING THE LOG10
SPIRAL, ADDED 0.5 FOR WHITE BAND, GIVING A DT OF 4.0. FT IS
BASED ON DT. MET AND PT SUPPORTS.

AODT: T4.5 (EMBEDED CLD RGN)

WEAVER




Air Force Sat Estimates has Wilma as a hurricane.

[skysummit]

I know the models will keep shifting...we're almost 6 days out! So far they've been pretty consistant (at least in the past day or so). I'll stick with the models for now, until they change again.

[floridahurricaneguy]

If it hits like south florida area, will Tampa possibly get TS conditions? Looks like it will be a big system? I am thinking we will get TS Warning and Hurricane Watch? Sound right?

Matt

[HURAKAN]

Wilma Bombs!

[skysummit]

She surely looks like a Cane on Visible! Very impressive Wilma!

[JamesFromMaine2]

I have no clue why this hasn't been upgraded to a hurricane yet! It sure looks like a hurricane!

[StormFury]

Hey Matt...to answer your question you need to consider how large Wilma will be. If she strenghtens more, she certainly will grow. However, if she is the siz of Katrina or Floyd then there will be strong tropical force winds easily extending up to Tampa.

[HomesteadHoney]

For those of us way down here at the bottom of Florida, does anyone have a suggestion for an evacuation spot? My usual choices, Naples, Tampa and Orlando all seem equally likely for a hit at this point.

Like NOLA, our evacuation routes for the millions of people down here are really limited (I-95, I-75 and Hwy 27). If I was to take a cautious approach and leave by Thursday, how far do we have to go??

I think many more people will be heeding early evacuation advice due to the insane evacuation experiences in TX and LA already this year.

My second post!

[boca]

Wilma can also miss Florida completely and cut thru the FL Straitsdue to the trough being very deep.

[JamesFromMaine2]

Wilma can also miss Florida completely and cut thru the FL Straitsdue to the trough being very deep.

IMO even if it does that with Wilma's size either way Florida will atleast get tropical storm force winds and rain even if its not a direct hit!

[JPmia]

Wilma can also miss Florida completely and cut thru the FL Straitsdue to the trough being very deep.

That's what I am hoping for this morning! I woke up to see all the global models agreeing on a track between just south of Tampa to Naples. Yikes. Hopefully the model trend for the next couple of days will continue south and then out to sea.

[Derek Ortt]

the trough needs to be very, very WEAK for this to miss FL to the south.

A stronger trough has more south to north flow, while a weak trough has west to east flow

[JPmia]

Source: 5am TPC Disco:
WILMA
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBEAN SEA...TYPICAL OF THOSE HURRICANES WHICH COMMONLY OCCURRED
IN OCTOBER DURING THE 30'S 40'S AND 50'S. THIS IS NOTHING NEW.

WILMA HAS BARELY MOVED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DESPITE MODELS
SHOWING A WEAKENING OF THE ANTICYLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THIS FEATURE IS STILL THERE AND STRONG...BLOCKING THE MOTION OF
WILMA. IT IS STILL FRESH IN MY MEMORY THAT...IN 1998 WITH A SIMILAR
STEERING PATTERN...ALL MODELS MOVED HURRICANE MITCH NORTHWARD AND
THE HURRICANE INDEED MOVED SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...DYNAMICAL MODELS
HAVE IMPROVED A LOT SINCE THEN AND THE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.

.....And a lot of those hurricanes hit southern Florida during that period.