INVEST 90L: Gulf of Mexico : Gone from NRL

[Ed Mahmoud]

Third day in a row that recon tasked to investigate the same area will be cancelled, I'll bet.


I wonder if that sets some kind of record.

[Ed Mahmoud]

For a low cloud swirl, it is rather nice looking.

[mightyerick]

I wonder if that sets some kind of record.

Sure it is!!!!

[cycloneye]

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1234 UTC THU OCT 4 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902007) 20071004 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071004 1200 071005 0000 071005 1200 071006 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.4N 90.1W 28.3N 91.7W 29.3N 93.3W 30.6N 94.8W
BAMD 27.4N 90.1W 28.1N 91.4W 28.8N 92.7W 29.9N 94.3W
BAMM 27.4N 90.1W 28.1N 91.5W 28.8N 93.0W 29.9N 94.6W
LBAR 27.4N 90.1W 28.5N 91.5W 29.8N 93.0W 31.2N 94.5W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071006 1200 071007 1200 071008 1200 071009 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 32.3N 96.1W 38.3N 95.8W 44.5N 94.8W 46.8N 94.6W
BAMD 31.6N 96.1W 37.9N 99.0W 43.7N 102.9W 40.0N 96.1W
BAMM 31.3N 96.2W 36.6N 97.7W 43.2N 99.5W 41.6N 96.3W
LBAR 33.2N 95.7W 39.5N 94.3W 44.6N 85.2W 40.5N 74.3W
SHIP 38KTS 43KTS 38KTS 32KTS
DSHP 28KTS 27KTS 29KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.4N LONCUR = 90.1W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 26.8N LONM12 = 87.8W DIRM12 = 300DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 25.0N LONM24 = 87.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[beachbum_al]

It is bringing much needed rain to South Alabama right now.

[Sanibel]

Looks dried to death. You would think it would have burst some convection by now.

[lrak]

went to the beach yesterday and the dry air felt like I was surfing in Arizona. Chills from the evaporation!

[Ed Mahmoud]

I still see a second circulation South of Biloxi.


Even without bone dry air (again, way cool this morning in Houston) and shear issues, this still wouldn't be able to organize fast.

The little swirl with nary a shower to its name may head for SW Lousiana or Texas, maybe opening up before it gets there, but any rain action will be with the circulation to the SW, which I guess might rain on SE Louisiana to Alabama as it comes ashore.

[cycloneye]

REMARKS: TASKING FOR 04/1600Z AND 05/0600Z,1200Z ON THIS
AREA CANCELLED AT 04/1130Z.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

Another day without any missions towards 90L.

[Stormcenter]

There is definitely (like Ed posted) a second circulation south of Biloxi, MS.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[CypressMike]

There is definitely (like Ed posted) a second circulation south of Biloxi, MS.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Isn't that in the upper levels? It looks like the only lower level feature is the naked swirl.

[Stormcenter]

There is definitely (like Ed posted) a second circulation south of Biloxi, MS.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Isn't that in the upper levels? It looks like the only lower level feature is the naked swirl.

Could be, I was justing agreeing with Ed's post. I also notice that most
of the convection is there and not by the naked swirl.

[Kennethb]

There is a long outflow boundary headed south off florida coast on the visible.

[MGC]

Got to hand it to the models, they called for a westerly turn last night and it happened. Doubt NHC upgrades 90L to a TC, no convection....MGC

[Chacor]

Still has potential, says the NHC...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL IS ASSOCIATION WITH
A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...AND THE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED FOR THIS AFTERNOON
HAS BEEN CANCELED. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[tailgater]

There is definitely (like Ed posted) a second circulation south of Biloxi, MS.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Isn't that in the upper levels? It looks like the only lower level feature is the naked swirl.

It's at the surface and probably become the stronger one since it does some T-storms near it.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_GULF/vis0.gif

[eaglegirl]

Snippet from the FDEM/SERT Daily Status Briefing
For the Day of October 3, 2007
Reporting period: 0900 hrs 10/04/07 through 0900 hrs 10/05/07:

A GULF OF MEXICO 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N88W.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH. RESIDENTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. A BIG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ON TOP OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND EVEN
PASSING OVER INTERIOR MEXICO TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC COAST...
AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 13N100W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 24N TO 25N BETWEEN 90W AND
93W...AND FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 87W AND 89W.

[Steve]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Latest band hasn't quite hit the city yet, but it's breezy and gray outside now.

Steve

[poof121]

It appears radar sites are afraid of surface lows. New Orleans radar is out now.

[wxman57]

There is definitely (like Ed posted) a second circulation south of Biloxi, MS.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Isn't that in the upper levels? It looks like the only lower level feature is the naked swirl.

It's at the surface and probably become the stronger one since it does some T-storms near it.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_GULF/vis0.gif

You're talking near 27N/88.7W, about 250 miles south of Biloxi, right/ That's one of about 3 vortices rotating around a larger area of low pressure. The stronger vortex is at 27.7N/90.7W. Weak one near 24.5N/88.5W. Just signs of the disorganized nature of this system. You'll notice convection grow as the vortices rotate northward on the east side of the low and it dies out when the vortex moves west.